Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 221136
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
536 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS TRACKING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE APPROACHING SW TX EARLY THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS COMING ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AT THE
SURFACE...AN UNSEASONABLY WARM MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND IS CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WHILE MOST SITES HAVE COME ABOVE 1/4SM THERE ARE A FEW SITES THAT
CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE. SO WILL LEAVE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS IS
FOR NOW. NOT OVERLY EXCITED WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIP TODAY AS THE
BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS TO BE OVER FAR SE KS. THE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SOUTHERN OK WILL LIKELY BE WHAT EVENTUALLY
AFFECTS OUR FORECAST AREA. SO FOR THIS MORNING KNOCKED DOWN POPS
QUITE A BIT AND JUST RAN WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE UNTIL THIS AREA OF
PRECIP MAKES IT UP HERE. LOCATIONS SE OF THE TURNPIKE WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. EVEN WITH LACK OF SUNSHINE
TODAY...THE LOW 60 DEGREE TEMPS OVER SOUTHERN OK RIGHT NOW WILL
ADVECT INTO THE AREA.

THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL
QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY
EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STAYING OVER FAR
EASTERN KS. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY
SUN EVENING WITH ALL OF THE PRECIP EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUN NIGHT. EVEN WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW MON...TEMPS WILL STILL
BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL THROUGH WED IN SWINGING
THROUGH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH NW FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP
FOR WED. PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH
AS MOISTURE NEVER HAS A CHANCE TO RETURN. IN ADDITION...TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. WHILE THERE IS
SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT POLAR AIR WILL TRY TO SPILL ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE
IS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON HOW FAR WEST THIS AIR
MAKES IT. CAN HOWEVER SAY WITH SOME CONFIDENCE THAT WE ARE NOT
LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT FOR WED-FRI WHICH SHOULD
BE GOOD NEWS FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR REMAINED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BR AND FG. LOW CEILING ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
BUT MAY BRIEFLY MIX OUT AFTER 21-22Z. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
WITH LOW CIGS AND FOG EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY RETURN BY 00Z OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER WITH CONTINUED MOIST LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW.
MVFR/VFR MAY RETURN TO KHUT AND KRSL-KSLN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN/REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST...MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF OKLAHOMA IMPACTING KCNU AFTER 16Z.
THIS WILL RESULT IN IFR/LIFR PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE 24-HR FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    61  51  53  31 /  30  20  30  10
HUTCHINSON      63  49  52  29 /  20  20  30  10
NEWTON          59  50  53  30 /  20  20  30  10
ELDORADO        61  51  55  31 /  30  30  40  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   61  52  56  31 /  40  30  30  10
RUSSELL         62  38  50  28 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      61  42  51  29 /  10  10  20  10
SALINA          61  46  51  30 /  10  20  40  10
MCPHERSON       61  48  52  30 /  10  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     62  53  59  33 /  60  60  60  20
CHANUTE         60  52  56  32 /  50  50  60  20
IOLA            61  52  56  31 /  50  50  60  20
PARSONS-KPPF    61  52  58  32 /  60  60  60  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ049>053-
067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$


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