Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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167
FXUS63 KICT 181951
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
251 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017


In the upper levels, water vapor imagery shows a pronounced
shortwave approaching the western Great Lakes. Currently have a
weak cold front extending from extreme northwest MO into
northwest KS, with a weak surface trough through central KS.

While a few storms will still be possible late this
afternoon/evening, chances do not look as good as they did
yesterday at this time. This is mainly due to lack of good
convergence along the front. In addition, feel that
overnight/morning showers and storms are limiting the return of
better instability. Based on current cu development, thinking the
better chances will be over far southeast KS into the early
evening hours.

Will return to more Aug like temps for Sat as the upper flow
flattens out, allowing for warmer temps to spread north. Looks to
be a decent signal for elevated convection Sat night over central
and especially northeast KS as 850-700mb veers setting up good
theta-e advection. For Sun into Mon, the GFS and ECMWF both agree
on tracking what looks like a moonsonal impulse across NM and into
western KS Sun night. This will keep storm chances around for at
least the western half of the state for Sun night into Mon.
Another MCS is expected Mon night over the Mid Mississippi Valley
as some shortwave energy tracks out of the northern/central
Rockies and out into the Plains.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

There is good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in a robust
upper trough tracking out of Manitoba and into the Great Lakes
region by Tue night. This feature will push a cold front across
the Plains lat Mon night through Tue evening. Showers and storms
look to be tied to this front as it progresses south. So our
better chances at more widespread convection looks to be for the
Mon night through Tue evening time frame. After near normal temps
in the 90s to start the work week, shud see temps fall behind the
front for the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Meso high to the west and a meso low at the surface to the SW.
This places a very weak boundary across the southern sections of
the forecast area. VFR conditions will prevail at all sites. With
subsidence in the area, I expect virtually clear skies at all
sites except for KCNU. The boundary will flounder in SE KS this
afternoon and possibly be the focus for isolated storms. The
convergence is very weak and the likely hood for development is
small. I have placed a VCTS for KCNU, but the confidence is pretty
low.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  96  73  95 /  20  10  10  10
Hutchinson      69  96  72  95 /  10  10  10  20
Newton          69  95  71  93 /  20  10  10  10
ElDorado        70  94  72  93 /  20  10  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   71  95  73  95 /  20  10  10  10
Russell         65  98  70  97 /  10   0  30  10
Great Bend      67  97  71  96 /  10   0  20  20
Salina          63  98  73  96 /  10  10  30  20
McPherson       67  95  71  94 /  20  10  20  20
Coffeyville     72  93  72  93 /  30  10  10  10
Chanute         70  92  71  92 /  30  10  10  10
Iola            68  92  70  91 /  30  10  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    71  93  72  92 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...CWH



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