Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 212025
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
325 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

tonight-Sun:
Few sprinkles developing across Flint Hills. Only weak support
for this across the area, so went with a dry forecast this
evening. Potential for storms to move into the area tonight from
Western KS and will keep small pops going west of i-35. Will keep
small pops going Sun morning in event overnight convection festers
in the weak warm air advection/moisture advection pattern past
sunrise. Anticipate extensive clouds once again, limiting both
potential for breaking cap early and maximum temperatures. With
dryline and surface convergence will west of forecast area at
0000 UTC, precipitation seems unlikely prior to 0000 UTC in
absence of significant heating.

Still hinting at some sort of convective complex moving into the
area Sun night from southern Nebraska. Will keep higher pops
going for that, although not an ideal synoptic setup for sustained
strong to severe convection.

sun night-Tuesday night:
periodic chances for convection and low clouds will persist
throughout the period. Best chances will be with ripples in upper
flow to enhance longevity as storms move off dryline. Unfortunately
ripples appear to be rather weak, so timing is suspect from
models. Consensus from 1200 UTC runs moves one weak ripple through
the area Sun night and a slightly stronger one Tue night.
Temperatures will be strongly influenced by clouds/outflow with
high chance of significant errors, especially if
clouds/precipitation persist into the afternoon. Severe weather
chances are still present, but confidence in magnitude/timing is
suspect. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Medium range models have come into pretty good agreement with upper
pattern throughout this period. Unfortunately the surface dryline/front
position is not so good. This leads to an unsettled and potentially
stormy period. The strongest piece of energy to eject from the
southwestern US trough would likely develop storms in western KS Thursday
afternoon/early evening and move into the area Thursday night.
With slow movement of upper shortwave, there is the potential for
storms on Friday, but this would be dependent on strength/location
of outflow boundary. Maxes will depend a lot on amount and timing
of convective debris. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Low clouds will continue to linger across central/south central
Kansas with some clearing over southeast Kansas. The low cloud
heights are expected to lower for portions of central Kansas later
tonight, as richer low level moisture streams into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    62  79  66  78 /  20  20  40  40
Hutchinson      62  78  66  80 /  20  20  40  30
Newton          60  79  66  77 /  20  20  40  40
ElDorado        59  80  66  76 /  10  10  40  50
Winfield-KWLD   61  79  66  77 /  20  20  40  40
Russell         61  78  66  82 /  20  20  50  30
Great Bend      62  78  66  83 /  20  20  40  20
Salina          61  79  67  79 /  20  20  50  40
McPherson       61  78  67  79 /  20  20  50  40
Coffeyville     58  81  66  75 /  10  10  20  50
Chanute         57  80  65  75 /  10  10  20  50
Iola            56  80  65  74 /  10  10  20  60
Parsons-KPPF    58  81  65  75 /  10  10  20  50

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...CDJ



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