Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 222054
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
254 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 229 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

A weak trough is stalled across the region this afternoon. The
Southerly winds in front of the trough is allowing warm
temperatures today which are well above normal. Tonight, a weak
disturbance and some moisture transport will bring a chance for
some light rain across parts of Central and Northeast Kansas.
Raised POPs some to compensate. A strong low pressure system will
be moving into the region Thursday afternoon which will
significantly increase the Southerly winds and the moisture
transport across the region. Unfortunately, most of the forcing is
too far to the North and will keep the bulk of any precipitation
out of the CWA. By the mid to late afternoon the front will come
through and CAA will take over. There will be enough moisture in
North Central Kansas to allow form flurries or drizzle mixed with
flurries Friday morning though. No accumulation is expected. CAA
will dominate much of Friday and Saturday and will keep
temperatures much lower and closer to normal.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Saturday night things get interesting again.  While moisture transport
is limited during this time, another strong frontal system will
be coming through the region. There will be enough moisture with
this system and plenty of forcing to allow for rain and some
showers over much of the CWA. Conditions during this time indicate
a slight chance for some thunderstorm activity but kept it out of
the forecast at this time as the strongest forcing, PV and
instability look to be too far to the South and East to allow
this.


Drier air will come back into the region turning off any
precipitation that is in the area. This where the models become
problematic. The ECMWF and GFS diverge into next week. GEFS plumes
are also difficult showing a very wide spread. The GFS is one of
the warmest members of the GEFS and one of the driest. The ECMWF
is a little cooler but much wetter. As such, confidence is low in
the long range and could see the temperatures several degrees
cooler than currently forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

VFR will prevail through much of the period with breezy Westerly
winds becoming light and variable tonight. As a shortwave trough
approaches from the West on Thu, low level moisture will return
northward across the area. A few sprinkles may develop with the
best chances for MVFR cigs remaining over Southeast KS after 15Z
on Thu.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 229 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

A trough stalled across the region has set up a very dry airmass
in the Northwestern parts of the CWA today which allowing dew
point temperature to fall into the upper teens. In Southeast and
South Central Kansas, Southerly winds have kept the dew point in
the mid 40s for the most part.

A cold front will come through late tomorrow which will kick the
winds out of the Northwest. Friday the winds will be the highest
bringing the Grassland Fire Danger Index into the very high
category.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    48  74  37  49 /  10  10   0   0
Hutchinson      46  72  34  47 /  10  10   0   0
Newton          47  70  36  46 /  10  10   0   0
ElDorado        48  74  38  49 /   0  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   48  76  39  52 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         41  70  30  41 /   0  10  20  10
Great Bend      42  71  30  43 /   0  10  10   0
Salina          44  70  35  45 /   0  10  10  10
McPherson       45  71  34  45 /  10  10  10   0
Coffeyville     49  78  44  56 /   0  10  10   0
Chanute         48  76  41  54 /   0  10  10   0
Iola            48  75  41  53 /   0  10  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    49  77  43  56 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...ELM


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