Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 161152
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
652 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN IOWA TO EASTERN KANSAS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS BY LATE
TONIGHT...REACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST KS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP A LOW PROBABILITY (20%) OF THUNDER GOING FOR
THIS PM/EVE IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE AREA. WEAK
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE ON SUNDAY SHOULD KEEP OUR
FORECAST AREA DRY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MCS ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS UPPER SYSTEM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP LOW PROBABILITIES (20-30%) ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY COUNTIES WHERE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS PROGGED.

AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS EARLY THIS
AM...COULD WRAP SOUTHWARD TO AROUND I-70 IN CENTRAL KS AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS BECOME LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY. WILL CARRY A FOG MENTION
THERE EARLY THIS AM. LIGHT NORTHEAST-EAST FLOW...LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN AM.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WITH LESS CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. FURTHER SLIGHT WARMING OF 1000-850
THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE HIGHS OF
95-100 BY MONDAY WITH A DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT SETTING UP.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...REACHING THE NORTHEAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK. BROAD
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES
(20-30%) OF STORM CHANCES TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK. CONSENSUS
OF THE GFS...ECMWF...GEM 850 TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW...SUPPORTS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES (~5-8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE)
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

ISOLD/WIDELY SCT -TSRA THAT ARE MOVG E ~25KTS SHOULD RESIDE OVER
ERN KS TIL ~15Z. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NRN & CNTRL KS
WHERE VSBYS ARE VARYING GREATLY. WHILE MOST AREAS IN WHICH BR IS
PRESENT ARE IN MVFR TERRITORY THERE ARE A COUPLE EXCEPTIONS BOTH OF
WHICH ARE NRN KS WHERE VSBYS RANGE FROM 1/4SM (FG) TO 1 1/4SM WHERE
VERY CLOSE TO A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT. VSBYS AT KRSL & KSLN ARE
BEING WATCHED CLOSELY. ALL AREAS TO BE IN VFR STATUS FROM LATE
MORNING ONWARD WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF ISOLD TSRA OCCURRING OVER
ERN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON & TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    96  72  96  71 /  20  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      96  71  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          95  71  95  70 /  20  20  10  10
ELDORADO        95  71  94  70 /  20  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  72  96  72 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELL         95  68  94  69 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      95  69  95  70 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA          95  70  94  71 /  20  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       94  70  95  70 /  10  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     93  73  94  71 /  30  20  10  10
CHANUTE         93  71  93  70 /  30  30  10  10
IOLA            93  71  92  69 /  20  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    93  72  93  71 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





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