Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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621
FXUS63 KICT 181736
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1236 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2016

Mild temperatures were observed across the region with
temperatures only dropping into the 70s. The warm front boundary
that was previous draped across central Kansas has continued to
lift north into Nebraska throughout the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2016

The main forecast concern through the next 7 days will be
the above normal temperatures, with widespread triple digit heat
looking likely by the middle of the work week, primarily across
central and south central Kansas. Not entirely confident that we
will reach heat advisory criteria through the early part of the
workweek, but with prolonged heat expected and upon collaboration
with neighbors the consensus was to run with the heat advisory
through Friday evening. This will likely need to be expanded
further west later in the week, but upon additional collaboration
the consensus was to hold off on issuing a heat advisory west of
I-135 for now.

Early this morning storms developed along the axis of 850mb
moisture transport across central Kansas. Given the weak 500mb
flow and decreasing instability, do not expect these storms to
move quickly or linger much past 7am this morning. Locally heavy
rain and gusty winds as thunderstorm updrafts collapse will be the
primary threats.

As upper-level ridging continues to build across the central
CONUS this week, confidence is high that above normal heat will
impact the entire area. With renewed 850mb warm air advecting
northeast out of the higher terrain of Colorado and New Mexico
each day, 1000-850mb partial thickness values will easily support
mid 90s to near 100 degree temperatures across the area. By
Wednesday, fairly widespread 100+ degree temperatures will be
possible. The big question will be how well dew point temperatures
mix out during the afternoon hours. This will have a big impact on
heat indices, especially across southeast Kansas. By Wednesday,
heat indices are expected to climb to 103-105 across much of the
area; therefore, as aforementioned I would not be surprised if
the heat advisory is expanded to the counties west of I-135.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2016

Confidence is high that the prolonged heat will linger at least
through the weekend. Thursday and Friday look to be the hottest days
of the week with near 100 and 100+ degree temperatures expected
across the entire area. Towards the end of the week and through the
weekend there will be periodic chances for thunderstorms as a
frontal boundary slowly drops south across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2016

Weak low pressure was centered near Hays at 1730Z. This was along
a quasi-stationary boundary that extended from KGKC-KHYS.

Mainly a wind forecast over the next 24 hours as a dome of upper
level high pressure suppresses storm development across the area.
Winds will primarily be from the south to southwest at 10-20 knots
through the period. Cigs and vsbys VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    97  73  96  75 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      98  74  97  75 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          96  74  95  75 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        94  74  95  75 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   96  74  95  75 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         99  73  98  75 /  10  10   0   0
Great Bend      99  73  98  74 /  10   0   0   0
Salina         100  75  97  76 /  10  10  10   0
McPherson       97  73  97  75 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     95  74  95  75 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         94  74  94  74 /  10   0   0   0
Iola            93  73  94  74 /  10  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    94  73  94  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ049-051>053-068>072-
083-092>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMR
SHORT TERM...JMR
LONG TERM...JMR
AVIATION...KRC



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