Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 290848
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
348 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT:
ANTICIPATE ONGOING PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO WORK
SLOWLY EAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WITH A DECREASE
LATE THIS MORNING AND A SLIGHT INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY...WITH CLOUDS MOST LIKELY
LIMITING WARMUP IN SOUTHEAST KS...AND SOME RAIN TO EVAPORATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.

SAT-SUN:
LINGERING PRECIPITATION AND WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY KEEP
ISOLATED/SCATTERED PRECIPITATION GOING IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS ON
SAT...AIDED BY HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE REST OF
THE AREA APPEARS DRY THROUGH SAT EVENING. INCREASE IN 700MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND RETURN MOISTURE MAY TRIGGER PRECIPITATION IN
CENTRAL KS STARTING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUN IN CENTRAL KS AND
PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN FLINT HILLS DURING THE MORNING. BY LATE
SUN AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT...EXPECT DECENT CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS EITHER MOVING INTO OR DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST
SECTION OF FORECAST AREA. WHILE SHEAR/INSTABILITY IN ON THE LOW
SIDE OF OPTIMAL...SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS. WILL HIT THIS A BIT HARDER IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVEN HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WOULD ANTICIPATE MCS TO
ROLL ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

APPEARS THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTH ON THU
ASSUMING LATEST ECMWF/GFS RUNS ARE CORRECT. IF SO...THIS BECOMES VERY
PROBLEMATIC FOR TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. IT WOULD
ALSO BRING POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ALONG/NORTH
OF FRONT. GIVEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRACK RECORD OF LATE...WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH WED WITH TEMPERATURES SHADED JUST A
BIT COOLER IN THE NORTH AND WARMER IN THE SOUTH. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE 06Z
FORECAST. THERE IS ONE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST KRSL/KHUT AND
MOVING EASTWARD. EXPECT THESE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANOTHER LINE OF
STORMS HAS ALREADY IMPACTED KICT AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO IMPACT
KCNU. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CREATE RELATIVELY SHORT TERM
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR
THE STORMS. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE REDEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY SPIN WEST OF US BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
MAINLY EAST OF THE TURNPIKE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  67  91  70 /  40  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      88  64  91  70 /  30  10  10  20
NEWTON          87  66  90  70 /  50  20  10  10
ELDORADO        90  66  90  69 /  50  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   85  67  91  70 /  50  30  10  10
RUSSELL         88  64  90  70 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      87  63  90  70 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA          91  65  91  71 /  30  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       89  64  91  70 /  30  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     84  69  91  70 /  60  50  20  20
CHANUTE         83  67  90  69 /  60  50  20  20
IOLA            82  67  89  69 /  60  50  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    82  68  90  70 /  60  50  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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