Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 160508
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1208 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

There is a high likelyhood of severe weather this afternoon and
evening over much of the CWA. Strong moisture transport, high CAPE
(4500+) and strong shear (35 to 45kts bulk shear) will provide a
nearly ideal set up for severe weather this afternoon and into the
early evening. Very large hail and high winds (70-80mph) will be
likely with the strongest storms. This activity is expected wane
after sunset. Conditions will still be favorable for some
scattered showers and thunderstorms but most of the activity is
expected to end by morning. The main threat during the late
evening and overnight hours will be high winds.  Friday will be
mostly sunny and conditions will not be as conducive to
thunderstorm activity. This will make mid to upper 90s easy for
afternoon highs.

Saturday there will be a strong cap in place which will prevent
any thunderstorm activity from starting during the afternoon. Full
sun, light winds and high 850mb temperatures will make for a hot
day as many areas are likely to reach the century mark. Moisture
transport from the south will still be rather good making for a
humid day as well. This will drive heat indices into the 104 to
107 range for some areas of Southeast Kansas. While there is
plenty of moisture and shear available for thunderstorm activity
Saturday, there will be strong cap in place that will need some
significant forcing to start off thunderstorm activity despite
high CAPE and DCAPE in the region. the needed forcing will be
provided by an approaching frontal system. This front will be
coming through the CWA during the evening and overnight hours
Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms, some of which are likely to
be severe, with the main threats being high winds and very heavy
rain. Sunday the flow will switch to the northwest and
temperatures will come back down to normal.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

The extended range will be characterized by temperatures warming
back up to well above normal levels. However, it does appear the
next week will be rather active. Once the general flow shifts back
around to the south, moisture transport will return to the
region. Shear levels will increase and will provide a good
environment for more shower and thunderstorm activity Tuesday
night and Thursday as well. Current setup indicates there is some
severe storm potential with activity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist for KICT and KCNU,
but they should be out of the area by 8z. The rest of the TAF
period is relatively quiet with some adjustments in wind speeds
and high cloud cover. Models contradict each other for potential
for thunderstorms again after 0z which would mainly impact KRSL
and KGBD. However, there is even slight indications to KHUT. Since
this is at the end of the forecast period, the decision was made
to hold off mentioning anything for now. The next forecast
issuances will be able to have a better handle on any potential
for development.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    66  95  74  99 /  70  10  20   0
Hutchinson      66  95  72  99 /  70  10  10  10
Newton          65  94  73  97 /  70  10  20  10
ElDorado        66  92  73  96 /  70  10  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   68  94  74  98 /  80  10  20   0
Russell         61  97  69  99 /  40  20  10  10
Great Bend      59  97  70  99 /  40  10  10  10
Salina          66  97  73 100 /  80  20  20  10
McPherson       65  96  72 100 /  80  10  20  10
Coffeyville     67  92  74  95 /  90  10  20   0
Chanute         66  91  73  95 /  80  10  30   0
Iola            67  91  73  95 /  80  10  30  10
Parsons-KPPF    66  91  74  95 /  90  10  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...VJP



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