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000
FXUS63 KICT 142029
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
329 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WARM TEMPS TONIGHT...THEN CHANCES OF
STORMS ON WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THEN INCREASING CHANCES FOR
THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

TONIGHT:
ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AHEAD AS WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA ACROSS NEB...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

WED:
A WEAK IMPULSE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON WED. LEE SIDE
SFC LOW OVER THE PANHANDLE OF TX WILL DEEPEN SOME IN RESPONSE TO
THIS WAVE...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NRN PLAINS EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH ALONG INTERSTATE 70 BY WED AFTN.  A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH CONVERGENCE
INCREASING ENOUGH ALONG IT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR
LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
FRONT WILL MAKE IT...WITH LATEST MODEL TRENDS KEEPING IT FURTHER
NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SUGGESTED. BUT CERTAINLY CLOSE ENOUGH FOR
CEN KS FOR A STORM CHANCE.  EVEN WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SVR STORMS ALONG IT...AS BULK SHEAR IS VERY
WEAK TO SUPPORT LONG LASTING ROTATING STORMS...BUT SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTERS LOOK POSSIBLE...WITH MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL.

NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE CONVECTION WILL BE FOR WED EVE...AS
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL KEEP CONVECTION CAPPED FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTH CEN KS. WILL KEEP A LOW POP IN FOR SOUTHEAST KS AS THE WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE SRN PLAINS...COULD LEAD TO SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS ERN OK.

THU:
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THU...AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THIS WEAK WARM ADVECTION UNDER THE INVERSION SUGGESTS...SOME AREAS
OF FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THU MORNING. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE VERY LOW LAYERS MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE...ACROSS MUCH OF SRN KS AS WELL.  SO WILL ADD THIS TO THE
GRIDS/FORECAST. COULD SEE THIS CLOUD COVER TEMPER MAX TEMPS ACROSS
SRN KS AS WELL...SO WILL ADJUST THEM DOWN SOME.

THINK ANY CONVECTION FOR THU WILL DEVELOP WELL NW OF THE AREA...
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. BUT BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF SUGGEST THAT
THIS CONVECTION COULD TRACK EAST ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF I-70 AS A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (MCS) LATE THU INTO EARLY ON FRI. WILL
KEEP A POP IN FOR THIS CHANCE IN CEN KS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE
MAY 14 2013

FRI-SUN:
COULD SEE SOME REMNANT SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS EXTREME PORTIONS OF CEN
AND NORTHEAST KS EARLY ON FRI...AS THU NIGHTS MCS CHANCE MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO
THE SRN ROCKIES FOR FRI AND INTO THE PLAINS FOR SAT/SUN. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SW MOIST FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH THE PATTERN
LOOKING ACTIVE FOR THE WEEKEND.  WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING FOR
FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS CEN KS IN CASE ANY STORM CAN MOVE NORTHEAST OFF
THE DRYLINE...AS THE DRYLINE REMAINS PARKED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST. AN ELEVATED MIXED WARM LAYER WILL AGAIN KEEP THE REST OF
THE AREA UNDER A CAPPING INVERSION AND DRY FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT.

THINGS BEGIN TO LOOK MORE INTERESTING FOR SAT/SUN AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO PULL OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO PLAINS.  TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM PULLING INTO THE PLAINS IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...WITH THE
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE RUNS SUGGESTING THE SHORTWAVE COMING OUT SLOWER
THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. EVEN WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT...AMPLE
AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERE CHANCES BOTH DAYS AS BULK SHEAR BEGINS
TO INCREASE...WITH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS. THINK THE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED FOR SAT...AS WARM AIR
IN THE MID LAYERS WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE INTO AREAS WEST OF
I-135 FOR SAT EVENING. AT THIS TIME....LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY WILL SEE
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE TURNPIKE...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE PUSHES.

REST OF THE EXTENDED:
MAIN SHORTWAVE MAY STILL BE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA ON
MON...WHICH MAY LEAD SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE
ERN HALF OF KS FOR MON...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA CLEARING OUT FOR
A NICE SPRING DAY. WILL SEE MOST AREAS SEE A NICE SPRING DAY ON TUE
AS WELL AS MID LEVEL LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST-NW.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

ANTICIPATING THE STOUT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH SOME THIS
EVENING BUT STILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL JET OF 40-45 KTS AROUND 1500-2000 FT AGL WILL GET GOING THIS
EVENING AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT...BUT DECIDED AGAINST LLWS DUE TO
GROUND-LEVEL WINDS STAYING UP SOME. OTHERWISE...A WEAK FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO SLIP THROUGH KRSL-KSLN LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SLACKENING WINDS QUITE A BIT. NOT ANTICIPATING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN VICINITY OF THIS FRONT UNTIL POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS FOR KRSL-
KSLN...ANTICIPATING CLEAR SKIES THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS ALL SITES.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    63  84  64  81 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      62  85  63  81 /  10  10  20  10
NEWTON          63  82  63  80 /  10  10  20  10
ELDORADO        63  84  63  80 /  10  10  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   64  82  62  80 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         60  89  64  83 /  10  30  30  20
GREAT BEND      60  89  63  82 /  10  20  30  10
SALINA          62  86  63  83 /  10  30  40  10
MCPHERSON       62  85  63  81 /  10  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     63  82  62  78 /  10  20  20  10
CHANUTE         63  82  62  78 /  10  20  30  10
IOLA            62  82  62  78 /  10  20  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    63  82  62  78 /  10  20  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$