Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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541
FXUS63 KICT 170944
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
344 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Forecast highlights the next 7-10 days: Well above normal
temperatures through late next week, with a cool down thereafter.
Rain likely Sunday evening into Monday, and again possible
Thursday-Friday.

Unseasonably warm temperatures, on the order of 20-25 degrees
above normal, will continue the next several days, as the main
polar upper jet and associated cold air remains bottled up across
Canada. An upper low will move over the Southern Plains tonight,
skirting far southeast Kansas. However, not expecting
precipitation with this system given lack of dynamics and
moisture.

Model consensus suggests increasing rain and embedded
thunderstorm chances areawide Sunday evening, lingering into
Monday over far eastern Kansas, as a deep upper trough approaches
from the west. Despite ample moisture and even some instability,
best upper forcing and associated greatest chances for widespread
meaningful precipitation appears to remain south of the forecast
area. Still, many locations over southern and eastern Kansas could
see rainfall amounts up to around one-quarter inch, with amounts
over central Kansas likely less.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Model consensus and GFS ensembles suggest warm and quiet weather
will likely continue Tuesday and Wednesday, as upper ridging
builds over Mid-America. Thereafter, operational model consensus
progresses a powerful shortwave east into Mid-America, increasing
precipitation chances once again. Despite poor agreement amongst
the GFS ensemble members, operational runs are in surprisingly
good agreement for about a week out. Still quite a bit of
uncertainty this far out, but latest runs actually show some
instability, and given the strong forcing, could be looking at
thunderstorms. Further north in the cold air, a snowstorm appears
plausible across portions of Nebraska and the Dakotas. But still a
long way out, so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Aviation concerns are still expected to remain minimal through
the next 24 hours.

Upper low continues to churn over sw TX and is expected to
continue lifting slowly northeast. By 00z Sat this feature is
expected to be situated over sw OK and headed into the Ozark
region by Sat morning. Still not expecting any precip associated
with this feature with just an increase in mid clouds. So
confidence in VFR conditions remains high through this TAF period.
Will continue with some wind shear overnight for KHUT-KICT-KCNU
with winds increasing quickly just off of the surface.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 339 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Warm and breezy weather along with low humidity will support high
to very high grassland fire danger today. Winds will likely
remain low enough to keep fire danger below extreme/critical
levels. Another elevated fire danger day is possible again
Sunday, although higher humidity values in the 40s-50s percent
will likely keep fire danger well below critical/extreme levels.
Rain chances will increase Sunday evening into Monday, especially
over southern and eastern KS. The next elevated fire danger day
will likely be Thursday, as southerly winds increase ahead of the
next storm system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  43  70  49 /   0   0   0  10
Hutchinson      71  41  69  47 /   0   0   0  10
Newton          70  42  68  48 /   0   0   0  10
ElDorado        70  45  69  48 /   0   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   70  45  69  50 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         72  34  67  45 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend      72  34  68  45 /   0   0   0  10
Salina          73  38  68  47 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson       71  40  68  46 /   0   0   0  10
Coffeyville     70  48  69  48 /   0  10  10   0
Chanute         71  47  69  48 /   0  10  10  10
Iola            70  47  69  47 /   0  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    71  47  69  49 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...ADK



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