Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 271609
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1009 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Strong area of low pressure continues to spin over NW KS at this
time. Tight pressure gradient ahead of the low has led to sustained
winds of 20 to 30 mph for most areas west of I-135.  Current wind
advisory for areas west of I-135 looks okay for now as some areas
could see sustained winds of 30 mph. Will have to keep an eye on
this, and possibly expand the advisory another row of counties to
the east as the afternoon progresses. Low level moisture has led to
lots of low cloudiness and even some patchy drizzle, but deeper lift
and moisture is still located to the SW of the forecast area in wrn
OK.

Expect this better lift (SW of the area) to make its way into the
forecast area by this afternoon, with a general uptick in the light
rain or showers. Not expecting widespread heavy showers as mid level
moisture is limited, but think most locations may see up to a
quarter of an inch as the main shower area SW of the area moves
across. Limiting factor to more widespread showers will be a
prominent dry slot expected to push into the western half of the
forecast late this afternoon, with a dry line expected to push east
of I-135 for the evening hours. As this dry line pushes east, think
this will be the best chance for any embedded thunderstorms, with
the GFS showing near 800 j/kg of MUCAPE across SE KS.  Will keep a
thunder mention in for areas east of the KS Turnpike into the
evening hours.

Ketcham

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 312 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Satellite imagery shows a well defined baroclinic leaf of a rapidly
developing low pressure system in Southeast CO.  This new system has
a deepening upper level trough and jet stream support.  This will
intensify the system today and significantly increase the pressure
gradient allowing winds to reach advisory level across much of the
CWA this afternoon.  Wind speeds of 25 to 35 mph are likely with
some wind gusts of 40 mph possible in areas.  These strong South
winds will allow strong moisture transport as the Gulf of Mexico is
open for business.  Most of this moisture will be at the low levels
and will be enough to allow for some drizzle and showers during the
day today.  There does not seem to be enough mid level instability
to allow thunderstorms to develop.  The best chance for
thunderstorms will be when the dry line comes through during the mid
afternoon today.  Even then, thunderstorms will be isolated and
embedded with the shower activity.  The amount of moisture transport
in the low levels that confidence is high that most areas will get
wet, just don`t see a lot of QPF though.  After the dry line comes
through in this afternoon, a dry tongue will move over the area and
the low and mid levels will dry out.  POPs have been reduced to
compensate for the intrusion of this dry air Sunday night and early
Monday morning. Wind will remain out of the South but will likely
drop below advisory level as the evening approaches.

Monday, the dry air will continue to establish itself over the CWA.
Any precipitation Monday morning is expected to be in Southeast
Kansas but that should end as the low levels dry up.  Frontal
passage will occur around mid day as the winds shift to the West.
Temperatures will not drop too quick in the afternoon as the thermal
gradient immediately behind the front is sloppy with a weak low
level thermal ridge just behind the front.  Could see high temps a
few degrees warmer Monday if the front is slower.  By Monday night,
the main mid and upper level trough will finally move through, winds
will shift to the Northwest and will remain brisk. This will allow
the stronger CAA to take over and temperatures will drop quickly
overnight Monday. By Tuesday, partly cloudy skies and persistent
CAA will be in control of the CWA with brisk Northwest winds. The
pressure gradient will weaken some and will keep winds below
advisory level. The long wave trough will set up and continue to
allow CAA over the area keeping temperatures at or just below
normal.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

The pattern will flatten out some and become more zonal allowing a
few short wave troughs to come through the area.  This time around,
low and mid level moisture transport will not be there as the Gulf
of Mexico will be shut off.  So these weak short waves will only
serve to keep near normal or just below normal temperatures in the
area with partly cloudy skies.  The next major weather system
appears to arrive Friday and Saturday but this time, the long wave
trough develops in the desert Southwest with a broad area of high
pressure over the Central Plains.  This will keep the bulk of the
moisture to the South.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 531 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Main aviation concerns will be low clouds and strong winds today.

Low clouds have taken their time lifting north early this morning
with many sites yet to get below 2,000ft. The exception would be
KCNU, which just fell to IFR levels. With strong low level moist
advection continuing today, will see widespread cigs below 2,000ft
in the next couple hours with some pockets of IFR mixed in over
mainly southern and se KS. As this system lifts off to the
northeast, will see clearing enter the western fringes of forecast
area around 00z and continue through the overnight hours. Should
see a sct line of showers quickly pass across the area from 18z to
00z in response to strong mid level warm advection.

Winds will also be an issue today with sustained speeds around
30mph for areas along and west of I-135 with a few gusts to 40 mph
possible this afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    61  43  61  34 /  50  20   0   0
Hutchinson      62  40  60  32 /  50  20   0   0
Newton          61  42  60  33 /  50  30   0   0
ElDorado        60  46  61  34 /  50  40   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   62  46  62  34 /  50  40   0   0
Russell         64  36  58  30 /  50  10   0   0
Great Bend      63  36  59  30 /  40  10   0   0
Salina          62  40  60  32 /  50  20   0   0
McPherson       61  39  60  32 /  50  20   0   0
Coffeyville     59  53  63  37 /  50  60  10   0
Chanute         58  50  62  35 /  50  60  10   0
Iola            57  50  61  36 /  50  50  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    58  51  63  36 /  50  50  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033-047>051-
067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Ketcham
SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...RBL



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