Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 181742
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1242 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

A few showers/thunderstorms are possible early this morning
across the area, as a shortwave trough approaches from the
northwest. Greatest probabilities for strong to marginally severe
activity will be generally southwest of a line from Russell to
Wichita to Arkansas City, closer to pool of elevated instability
and strong effective deep layer shear over southwest KS. As the
shortwave trough exits to the south, thinking precipitation
chances will end by 8-9 AM.

Otherwise, fairly quiet weather is expected today through
Tuesday, as upper ridging gradually builds east/northeast across
Mid-America. Above normal temperatures will prevail, with forecast
highs mostly in the 90s Monday and Tuesday. A weak cold front will
attempt to ooze south into KS Monday and retreat back north
Tuesday, but lack of upper support, weak convergence and warm mid-
level temperatures should preclude isolated storms from forming.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Medium range consensus suggests breezy/windy south winds and
above normal temperatures will continue Wednesday through Friday,
as a deep/amplified upper trough progresses across the western
CONUS. Most locations will likely remain dry through much of the
week, although cannot rule out a few showers/thunderstorms over
central and north-central KS Wed-Wed night as a subtle lead
shortwave progresses across Mid- America. Additional isolated
activity is possible Thu night and Fri as the deep upper trough
continues to approach from the west. Medium range consensus and
associated ensembles are coming into better agreement with the
synoptic evolution of this deep upper trough, with increasing
shower/thunderstorm chances areawide from Friday night through
Saturday night/early Sunday, with a substantial cool down likely
by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period.
Few-scattered cumulus is forecast this afternoon primarily
along/east of i-35 with some altocumulus possible late tonight
over the same area. -Howerton


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    86  68  93  69 /  10   0   0  10
Hutchinson      86  67  93  67 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          84  67  91  67 /  10   0   0  10
ElDorado        84  68  91  68 /  10  10  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   86  68  93  69 /  20  10  10  10
Russell         88  63  92  64 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      89  63  93  66 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          86  67  93  66 /  10   0   0  10
McPherson       86  66  92  67 /  10   0   0  10
Coffeyville     85  67  92  69 /  20  10  10  10
Chanute         84  67  91  68 /  20  10  10  10
Iola            83  67  91  68 /  20  10  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    85  67  91  69 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...PJH



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