Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 130433
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1133 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

UPDATED TO ADJUST STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT.

MAIN REASON FOR THE UPDATE WAS TO KEEP OVERNIGHT POPS TIED CLOSER
TO THE BOUNDARY WHICH MEANT REMOVING THEM FOR MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND ALL OF SE KS. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON BUILDING IN
SOME CAPPING OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE BETTER COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

THE 17Z RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE LOWER 30 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG.
12.15Z RAP FORECAST OF THESE FIELDS SHOWS AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THIS EVENING.  MLCAPE VALUES MAX
OUT AROUND 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REACHING OVER 25 DEGREES.

AT THIS TIME...NOT THAT EXCITED FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH OF A CAP IN PLACE.  THE 15Z
HRRR DOES PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
DRYLINE AFTER 00Z...AS DOES THE 12.12Z WRF-NMM.  THIS IS MAINLY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 14 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 400.  AT THAT TIME...THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.  THIS IS ALSO THE
BEST TIME FOR A TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THAT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL
HAVE COME DOWN BY THEN...JUST NOT SURE THEY WILL HAVE COME DOWN
ENOUGH.  CONFIDENCE IN A TORNADO THREAT IS LOW.

WE ARE LOOKING AT DISCREET SUPERCELLS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL.  BELIEVE THE LARGE HAIL THREAT IS QUITE HIGH GIVEN THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANVIL SEEDING AND THE 0-10KM SHEAR
IS GREATER THAN 90 KNOTS.  THINK THAT BASEBALL HAIL OR LARGER AS A
MAX HAIL SIZE IS POSSIBLE FOR ANY ISOLATED SUPERCELL ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPMENT AREA.  IT WILL BE INTERESTING
TO SEE HOW THIS PANS OUT.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...SLOWLY ADVANCING
TO THE SOUTHEAST.  THIS WILL CREATE A COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MOVE IN AS IT
PASSES.  BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSPORT SUGGESTS WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

BY SUNDAY AT 18Z...THE FRONT WILL BE APPROXIMATELY LOCATED FROM
EMPORIA TO WINFIELD.  THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS
WILL FORCING IN THE MID-LEVELS.  FAVORABLE SHEAR/BUOYANCY
COMBINATIONS...WITH MEAN WIND VECTORS MORE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SUGGESTS A RAPID DEVELOP OF STORMS...WITH STORMS BEING
ORGANIZED INTO A LINEAR FASHION.  THEREFORE...THE MAIN THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY
THREAT.

AS SAID EARLIER...AS THE FRONT EXITS...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MOVE
IN.  TO FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS...STRONG COLD ADVECTION MOVES
INTO THE REGION AS WELL.  SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A
PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEM AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN.  SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS A CHANGE TO SNOW NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH A MIX FURTHER SOUTH.  ACCUMULATIONS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT.  BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA FROM THE 12Z
GFS SUGGESTS THE WIND COULD LAST INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH MONDAY NIGHT IN LINE FOR
A REASONABLE FROST/FREEZE SCENARIO.  WITH ALL THE COMPLEX WEATHER
GOING ON AHEAD OF THIS THREAT...WILL LEAVE THIS FOR LATTER SHIFTS TO
CONTEMPLATE.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO POSITION...STRETCHING FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.  THIS
SUGGESTS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.  THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE A DANGEROUS
DAY FOR FIRES.

MOISTURE ADVECTION RETURNS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE GULF OPENS.  AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING
RATHER STRONG AND COULD BRING SEVERE WEATHER INTO THE REGION FOR THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR/BUOYANCY
COMBINATIONS AT THIS TIME.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION
THEREAFTER.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT SET TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA ON SUN.

A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SUN
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS FOLLOWING BEHIND. STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AFTER 18Z...WITH THESE STORMS
MAINLY AFFECTING SE KS(KCNU). SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE OUT OF SE KS BY
03Z. THE SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO
CENTRAL KS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
RAINFALL. AFTER 03Z FEEL SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START TO MIX WITH
THE RAIN OVER CENTRAL KS WITH KRSL AND KSLN HAVING THE BEST CHANCE
TO SEE SOME SNOW BEFORE 06Z. NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
SUSTAINED IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

THE NEXT REAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR GRASSLAND WILL NOT BE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. THAT IS WHEN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT OF AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

THAT SAID...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAINFALL SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY. THIS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE REGION TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK...SHOULD SPURN MORE GROWTH OF GRASSES...AS WE
TREND TOWARD LESSER CURING.

COOK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  76  34  45 /  10  60  50  50
HUTCHINSON      62  69  31  45 /  20  60  60  40
NEWTON          64  74  31  43 /  20  70  50  50
ELDORADO        65  75  33  44 /  10  80  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  77  35  45 /  10  80  40  50
RUSSELL         56  56  28  45 /  20  70  70  20
GREAT BEND      56  58  28  44 /  20  60  70  30
SALINA          60  64  31  46 /  30  60  70  30
MCPHERSON       61  67  30  44 /  30  60  60  40
COFFEYVILLE     65  74  39  45 /  10  60  90  40
CHANUTE         64  73  37  44 /  10  60  80  40
IOLA            64  72  36  44 /  10  70  80  40
PARSONS-KPPF    65  74  38  45 /  10  70  80  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047-
048.

&&

$$







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