Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 191123
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
623 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Thu May 19 2016

A shortwave trough over the southern High Plains early this
morning, will eject slowly northeastward across Kansas/Oklahoma
today through tonight, exiting eastern Kansas during the day
Friday. Modest moisture advection/lift is progged in the 300-310K
layer as this wave moves through, which will support scattered
light rain showers over mainly south-central and southeastern
Kansas. Scattered rain amounts will be light (0.20 in or less),
with precipitation likely ending over southeast Kansas by midday
Friday. Cloud cover associated with this upper disturbance should
keep highs today about 10 degrees below normal. Partial
clearing/sunshine should occur over the most of the area by mid-
late Friday afternoon, supporting warmer temperatures.

Upper level ridging will build over the Plains Friday night into
Saturday, as a longwave upper trough advances slowly through the
western states. Southerly return flow will strengthen Saturday
with high temperatures finally much more seasonal (upper 70s to
near 80). Isolated, elevated convection may develop early Saturday
morning over parts of central/south-central Kansas, with
isentropic lift occurring within a north-south oriented mid-level
baroclinic zone, aided by a veering low-level jet. Some concern
about capping exists, and thinking we will get either just accas
or widely separated elevated storms. A repeat small chance of
storms in nearly the same areas is possible Saturday night into
Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Thu May 19 2016

The upper ridge axis will shift eastward early in the extended
period, allowing a southwesterly mid-upper level flow pattern to
spread eastward over the Central Plains, in response to longwave
upper troughing from central Canada into the southwest CONUS. This
will allow persistent southerly flow from a wide open Gulf,
bringing very rich moisture/instability northward into the Kansas
region. The medium range models continue to indicate a series of
individual shortwaves ejecting northeast across the
northern/central Plains from the parent upper longwave trough. The
timing of the individual waves will likely be adjusted to some
degree with each model run as we approach this extended period. A
pacific front is progged to drop southward into the Central Plains
Sunday night, where it stalls, intersecting a dryline. These two
boundaries (and likely other meso- outflow induced boundaries from
convection), are expected to linger and oscillate across the
Kansas region through midweek, providing a focus for strong-severe
thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall. The going forecast
already covers this well, with little in the way of changes needed
with this forecast package. Expect near to slightly above normal
temperatures with increased humidity levels for the entire period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Areas of light rain showers will spread northeast across the
region today, especially the eastern half of Kansas. Anticipate
ceilings should remain primarily VFR today, although ceilings
should gradually deteriorate tonight as diurnal cooling sets in
amidst moist low-levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    66  53  75  56 /  30  30  10  10
Hutchinson      65  52  74  55 /  20  20  10  10
Newton          66  52  74  55 /  20  30  10  10
ElDorado        66  53  74  55 /  40  30  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   65  54  74  56 /  50  30  10  10
Russell         68  51  74  56 /  10  20  10  10
Great Bend      68  51  75  55 /  20  20  10  10
Salina          69  52  73  55 /  10  20  10  10
McPherson       67  51  74  55 /  20  20  10  10
Coffeyville     67  53  73  56 /  50  50  20  10
Chanute         67  53  72  55 /  30  40  20  10
Iola            68  53  72  54 /  20  30  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    67  53  72  55 /  40  50  20  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ADK



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