Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 301041
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
441 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

...Updated for 12z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 307 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Upper low is currently centered over southern MN and is finally
starting to push east as additional shortwave energy comes onshore
over the Pacific NW. At the surface, a low is stacked below the
upper feature over southern MN with a strong cold front extending
through the southern Mississippi Valley.

Pesky upper trough will continue to slowly move east as the last
upper impulse lifts out of the southern high Plains and into the
Ohio Valley by tonight. Weak surface high pressure will be in
place tonight into Thu as this system departs and ahead of our
next shortwave. By Fri morning, there is good model agreement
that more robust upper energy will be digging over the Great Basin
and into the desert sw by Fri night.

Temps today through Fri will be fairly uniform as they generally
top out in the 45 to 50 degree range which is close to seasonal
normals.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

ECMWF and GFS agree fairly well through 12z Sun, before diverging
again on their solutions. Both models do spread some light precip
north into southern KS late Fri night into Sat. Even though the
GFS continues to close off the upper low over western Mex through
the weekend, not sure it will make that much of a difference with
regards to precip, as the northern stream energy will shunt the
better moisture east. Still does not look like a significant
winter event Sat as forecast soundings show the lowest few
thousand feet remaining warm enough to limit snowfall
accumulation. Plus, the better moisture will be pushed east too
quickly.

By mid week, medium range models carve out another deep trough
over the western CONUS with additional shortwave energy tracking
over the northern Plains. While precip chances don`t look that
great through Tue, have high confidence in a strong cold front
pushing through during the Tue-Tue night time frame. So a period
of below normal temps look likely for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 441 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Fairly quiet VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. The main
story will be stout/gusty northwest winds late morning through
afternoon, with many locations exceeding 25 kt gusts. Otherwise,
transient clouds around 10,000 ft AGL will impact the region as a
large storm system continues to move slowly across Minnesota.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    50  25  51  28 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      49  23  50  25 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          49  24  49  27 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        49  25  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   50  25  53  29 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         47  20  48  22 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      48  20  48  22 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          48  22  49  23 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       49  22  49  24 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     50  27  52  30 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         48  27  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            47  27  49  28 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    49  27  51  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...ADK


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