Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 111808
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1208 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 313 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

Relatively low impact weather expected for at least the next 7-10
days across the region, with near to above normal temperatures
prevailing.

Widespread drizzle is expected to impact the region today and
tonight, as approaching shortwave energy induces modest to strong
low-level isentropic ascent and moisture transport. Drizzle this
morning into the afternoon will be most widespread generally
along/west of the KS Turnpike corridor, with the drizzle
eventually shifting east and becoming most widespread across
southeast Kansas tonight. Despite its widespread nature, total
drizzle amounts will remain light, generally less than five
hundredths of an inch. Thankfully, temperatures will remain well
above freezing so no icing is expected. All light precipitation
will exit far southeast Kansas after midnight.

Another round of light rain and/or drizzle is possible late
Monday through Tuesday, as deep low-level warm/moist advection
commences in response to shortwave energy approaching across the
Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Once again, light
precipitation amounts are expected, and temperatures will remain
well above freezing. Could see a handful of showers/thunderstorms
Tuesday night across eastern Kansas, as another cool front slices
across the state, but limited instability and weak upper forcing
should prevent severe weather.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 313 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

Despite some differences, operational models and associated
ensembles support another storm system and associated cool front
progressing across the region sometime Thursday-Friday. At this
point consensus suggests greatest precipitation chances will be
north of the region in vicinity of best forcing, although light
precipitation amounts are possible further south across KS. Model
consensus supports dry and relatively mild weather next weekend,
with upper ridging building in from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

Various flavors of IFR conditions will be the general rule
through tonight except at KCNU. At KCNU, MVFR conditions early
should become IFR by 0000 UTC. The lowest conditions are expected
this evening. There may be some improvement after daybreak, but
have reservations given weak boundary layer flow and lingering low
level moisture that conditions will improve that much prior to
1800 UTC. Also very pessimistic with forecast KGBD given lack of
observations. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    52  44  55  37 /  60  50   0   0
Hutchinson      49  42  53  35 /  60  40   0   0
Newton          48  43  53  35 /  60  60   0   0
ElDorado        50  43  55  36 /  60  60   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   52  45  57  38 /  40  50   0   0
Russell         51  39  51  34 /  60  10   0   0
Great Bend      50  40  51  34 /  60  10   0   0
Salina          49  40  53  35 /  60  50   0   0
McPherson       48  41  53  34 /  60  50   0   0
Coffeyville     52  47  58  37 /  20  50   0   0
Chanute         49  45  55  35 /  40  50   0   0
Iola            48  44  54  35 /  40  50   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    50  45  57  36 /  30  50   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...PJH



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