Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 170453
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1153 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...

AT 3 PM, A "COLD" FRONT NEARLY BISECTED THE AREA THROUGH WICHITA,
WITH A STEADY SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION. STRANGELY ENOUGH,
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WERE SIMILAR TO...IF NOT A BIT WARMER
THAN...PRE-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES. NORTH WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS SO DRY WITH
THIS FRONT THAT NO PRECIPITATION AND ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
THE NORTH BREEZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, MODIFYING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY WITH WEAKENING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
AMPLE SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY WILL BRING HIGHS IN TO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S DESPITE A BIT OF COLD ADVECTION.
BARJENBRUCH

.LONG TERM...

THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS QUIET FOR THE MOST PART. HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH AS IT
PASSES EAST ON SUNDAY DO EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 60S ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
CLOSE TO 70 OR WARMER ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE RATHER
COOL DIRECTLY UNDER THE HIGH IN CENTRAL KS, BUT SHOULD STILL BE WARM
ENOUGH TO AVOID FROST.

ANOTHER, LIKELY DRY, FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY WITH
MINIMAL FORCING AND MINIMAL MOISTURE TO INTERACT WITH. UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS OVERHEAD LATE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING IN THE SW CONUS BY MID-WEEK. AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS,
EXPECT MORE AMPLE MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY
LATE IN THE WEEK BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST QUALITY MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS. MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN TAKING THE BULK OF THE UPPER ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE BACK SOUTH INTO MEXICO, LEAVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE
DIVERGENT AFTER WEDNESDAY AROUND THE TIME OF THESE PRECIP CHANCES
WITH SOME SUGGESTIONS OF A STRENGTHENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
IMPACTING THE AREA WITH COLD AIR AND PRECIP WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES WITH BENIGN
UPPER FLOW OVER KANSAS...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

EXCELLENT WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL AREAS THRU SAT MORNING & LIKELY
BEYOND AS A WEAK HIGH CONTINUES TO SPREAD SSE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT & ON FRI. WINDS TO BE NLY <=13KTS/15MPH THROUGHOUT
THE 17/06Z EDITION WITH CLOUDINESS LIMITED ~30,000FT CIRRUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  70  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      48  69  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          47  68  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        47  69  43  64 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   48  72  46  66 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         46  69  41  63 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      46  69  42  64 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          47  69  41  62 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       47  69  42  62 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     49  71  45  64 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         48  70  43  63 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            47  69  43  62 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    48  70  44  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





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