Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 291728
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1228 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AND LINGER DURING THE DAY.
THIS CONVECTION COULD LIMIT THE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TRYING TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS...AND RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. WE STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO
SPREAD INTO KANSAS TODAY...AND LOOKS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES OUT INTO
THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF DECENT WIND SHEAR/ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS
OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE ROTATES ACROSS KANSAS...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THEREAFTER WITH LONG RANGE MODELS
SHOWING A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS PERIOD IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY AS RICH GULF MOISTURE IS SHOVED
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL BE IN PART DUE TO EASTERLY BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM OKLAHOMA...AND
PARTLY FROM OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER STORM
CORES WILL BE IN THE SOUTH...AFFECTING HUT...ICT...AND CNU LATE
THIS PM/EVE. HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS IN
ADDITION TO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE LOW STRATUS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN CEILINGS SHOULD
IMPROVE AND DISSIPATE TOWARD MID MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...AS
WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ENSUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  48  68  45 /  80  80  10  10
HUTCHINSON      56  46  65  44 /  80  80  20  10
NEWTON          58  48  67  45 /  80  80  20  10
ELDORADO        62  52  69  46 /  80  80  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  50  70  46 /  80  80  10  10
RUSSELL         51  41  59  41 / 100  90  40  20
GREAT BEND      52  42  61  41 / 100  80  20  20
SALINA          55  45  65  44 / 100  80  40  20
MCPHERSON       56  46  65  44 /  80  80  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     68  54  73  48 /  80  80  20  10
CHANUTE         64  57  70  48 /  80  80  30  10
IOLA            64  57  70  48 /  80  80  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  56  72  48 /  80  80  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...JMC



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