Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 170958
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
358 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING WITH GRADUAL
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO PRECIPITATION SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH AND INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 0000 UTC MODELS
SHOWED CONSIDERABLE VARIATION ON TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.
CONSENSUS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FORCED A SLIGHT NORTHWARD/FASTER
ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST...BUT GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND MODEL
CONSENSUS...WOULD HAVE PREFERRED TO HAVE STAYED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST/TIMING/CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

TONIGHT:
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS THIS PERIOD. NAM/GFS/
SREF/ECMWF ALL SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH LESS CHANCES FOR
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO POTENTIAL FOR SOME BANDING AND ENHANCED AMOUNTS
HAS INCREASED. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR 1-2 INCHES AVERAGE IN SWATH
ACROSS MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
PROBABLE. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400...COMBO OF RAIN/SNOW MIX AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS.
BASED ON NEWER TOTALS...AND FOR PERIOD OF MIXED/FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IN TRANSITION ZONE...HAVE HOISTED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR AREA ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54. BEST
INSTABILITY/LIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 0000 UTC-0600 UTC WITH
PRECIPITATION SLOWLY WANING AFTER 0600 UTC.

THU-FRI:
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING...THEN WANING
TO JUST SOUTHEAST KS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SECOND UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH...WILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL CHANCES GOING IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO INITALIZATION GRIDS GIVEN ACTIVE SHORT TERM. DID
KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING MON-MON NIGHT IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS. FOR
AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION...THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN...WITH ONLY SLIVER OF THAT AREA IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTHWARD FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  32  37  32 /  50  80  30  10
HUTCHINSON      34  31  35  31 /  50  80  30  10
NEWTON          33  30  35  31 /  40  80  40  10
ELDORADO        34  31  36  31 /  50  80  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  32  38  33 /  50  70  30  10
RUSSELL         32  29  34  29 /  30  80  30  10
GREAT BEND      33  30  35  30 /  30  80  30  10
SALINA          32  30  35  30 /  30  80  40  10
MCPHERSON       33  30  35  30 /  40  80  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     38  34  40  35 /  50  70  30  20
CHANUTE         34  32  38  32 /  40  80  40  20
IOLA            34  31  37  31 /  30  80  40  10
PARSONS-KPPF    36  33  39  34 /  50  80  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083.

&&

$$



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