Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 200452
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1152 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 705 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

This Evening:
At 7 PM CDT, axis of strongest convection extended from around
Manhattan to Newton with convection continuing to move northeast
around 35 mph. Showers & embedded thunderstorms were also moving
northeast around 35 mph across Northeast OK. Current Doppler
trends depict the strongest thunderstorms passing just to the
southeast of Southeast KS thru 10 PM CDT.

UPDATE Issued at 501 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Headline: Tornado Watch #250 in effect for all of South-Central
and parts of Central & Southeast KS until 10 PM CDT.

This Evening:
A line of thunderstorms, a few of which are producing tornadoes,
continue to move northeast around 30 mph. At 5 PM CDT, the
thunderstorms producing tornadoes were surging northeast across
Reno and Kingman Counties. All products have been updated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Water vapor imagery shows deep upper low spinning over southern
CO/northeast NM. At the surface, stationary front extends from
near KMCI to southwest of KICT.

Initial round of warm advection storms quickly lifted across the
area this morning but it appears it did little to push the front
south, with southeast winds still in place across western OK and
southern KS. Meanwhile, persistent line of convection remains over
eastern OK in an area of strong 850mb moisture transport and
theta-e advection.

Current thinking is that another round of storms will develop
later this afternoon along the surface front over western OK and
lift into south central and especially southeast KS. This activity
will likely persist into the early evening hours. Should also see
additional development southeast of the KS Turnpike this evening
as 850-700mb moisture transport once again ramps up.

We are also seeing additional convection over western KS, closer
to the upper low where mid level lapse rates are maximized with
this activity possibly affecting central/south central KS later
this afternoon into the early evening hours. While instability
doesn`t look as high as we had yesterday at this time, there
should still be enough early this evening for some severe storms,
plus deep layer shear in the 40-55kt range won`t hurt. PW`s in the
1.75 to 2 inch range southeast of the KS turnpike will also allow
for high rainfall rates which may lead to some flooding tonight.
Current plan is to keep entire flood watch going and will likely
cancel the western flank once the activity over west-central KS
lifts out early this evening.

By 12z Sat, the upper low will be lifting over southwest Nebraska
with the cold front extending through the Ozark region into the
Arklatex area. May see some lingering precip over far SE KS Sat
morning, but by the early afternoon hours the forecast area will
be precip free. Shortwave will continue to lift northeast and will
be over the northern Mississippi Valley by Sun afternoon. Should
continue with dry and cool conditions Sun as weak surface high
pressure pushes east.

Confidence is high that we`ll see below normal temps for both Sat
and Sun with Sat in the 60s with low to mid 70s expected for Sun.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

There is decent model agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in
tracking some shortwave energy out of the central Great Basin and
across KS late Sun night into Mon. This will bring us our next
chance for precip, but with limited moisture not expecting any
severe storms or heavy rain. There is a slight chance for some
light showers Tue, in the wrap around region of an upper low off
to our east, but confidence is low in this panning out. Will
finally get into a warming trend for Thu and especially Fri as
the upper flow becomes more zonal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

In Southeast KS, numerous SHRA & embedded TSRA that are moving
northeast around 25 kts will occasionally reduce vsbys to 2-3SM
thru 08Z. Outside of the heavier rains MVFR cigs & vsbys are
likely til 09Z. From 09Z thru mid Sat Afternoon MVFR cigs would
prevail at KCNU with the terminal returning to VFR status around
20Z. IFR cigs will cover most of the remaining areas until early
Sat Morning (12-15Z) when cigs should improve to MVFR. Around 20Z
all of Central & South-Central KS should be VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    50  64  46  75 /  40  10   0  10
Hutchinson      48  63  44  74 /  30  10   0  10
Newton          49  62  44  73 /  60  10   0  10
ElDorado        51  64  45  73 /  40  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   53  66  46  75 /  40  10   0   0
Russell         43  60  41  74 /  30  20   0  10
Great Bend      44  61  42  74 /  20  10   0  20
Salina          45  61  43  74 /  60  20   0  10
McPherson       48  62  43  73 /  50  10   0  10
Coffeyville     59  69  47  74 /  70  20   0   0
Chanute         57  68  46  73 /  60  20   0   0
Iola            57  67  46  72 /  70  20   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    59  69  47  73 /  70  20   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ049-052-053-
069>072-094>096-098>100.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EPS
SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...EPS



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