Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 301120
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
620 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DEVELOPED AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...BEFORE
WANING MID MORNING. INITIALLY WAS THINKING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TO BE DRY...BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...AND LITTLE CINH
ACROSS SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WITH DECENT CAPE...SUSPECT MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERIST UNTIL
SUNSET. TEMPERATURES TODAY A TOUGH CALL WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON
AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS AT MID TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH NO
CLEAR CUT SIGNALS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TOWARDS DAYBREAK
FRI...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT
VERY HIGH.

FRI-SAT:
DRY CONDITIONS TENTATIVELY EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH GIVEN AIRMASS...WOULD
NOT WANT TO ENTIRELY RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION. SOME HINTS THAT RIPPLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING
GRAZING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG NORTHEASTERN BORDER...BUT
CHANCES ARE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SEE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
CRITICAL SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
FORECAST. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH WAVE AND RESULTANT
CONVECTION ON TUES...WHICH AT FACE VALUE BRINGS EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL KS AND KEEPS HIGHS IN THE 70S. GFS
MAINTAINS A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST THERMAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE ICT-
TOP BORDER...BUT WITH A MUCH WEAKER WAVE...KEEPS FORECAST AREA
DRY AND STORMS FURTHER EAST. GFS MODEL TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN UPPER 90S...WITH ITS THICKNESSES SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES AROUND
100 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS
CERTAINTLY PLAUSIBLE...BUT ODDS SEEM TO FAVOR THE WARMER/DRIER
SOLUTION AT THIS POINT UNTIL TIMING/LOCATION/CONFIDENCE COULD BE
BE HIGHER. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS MORNING...THUS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES
OF HUT AND ICT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED TO AROUND 2 MILES AT
TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TOO THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  69  92  69 /  50  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      89  68  93  67 /  50  20  10  10
NEWTON          87  68  92  67 /  50  20  10  10
ELDORADO        88  67  92  67 /  30  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   89  70  91  68 /  30  20  10  10
RUSSELL         90  67  94  65 /  20  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      88  67  93  65 /  20  20  10  10
SALINA          90  68  95  66 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       88  67  94  67 /  50  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     89  68  91  68 /  20  10  10  10
CHANUTE         87  66  92  68 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            87  66  91  68 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    88  67  91  68 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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