Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 081152
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
552 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 222 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

A trough axis will move across the area early in the period shifting
winds to the northwest with rising heights/increasing thickness in
it`s wake. This will support rising temperatures as we move through
the day today. Abundant mid clouds/virga will be present early in
the period, but the lower half of the column appears to dry for any
flurries to reach the ground.

Sat-Sun...Northwest mid/upper flow will prevail through the period
bringing dry weather conditions and moderating temperatures. The H85
thermal ridge will expand eastward on Sunday with highs topping out
in the mid and upper 60s for much of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 222 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

The models remain in reasonable agreement through the extended
periods with a northwest mid/upper flow regime persisting across the
central Conus. This is a dry pattern for the central Conus although
a couple of fropas may usher in cooler air and breezy conditions
likely elevating the grassland fire danger periodically through the
week as we remain quite dry across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 552 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

A fairly sharp sfc trof that`ll surge S/SE across most of KS this
morning will cause a quick SW-NW/N wind shift in most areas. The
only exceptions would be in SE KS where such a wind shift should
not occur until close to 23Z. A dry adiabatic lapse rate through
~5,000ft would promote excellent momentum transfer across Central
& South-Central KS late this morning. This warrants increasing NW
winds to 17-22kts sustained with ~25kt gusts. The potential for
cold air stratocu has increased & have therefore lowered cigs to
3,500-5,000ft in all areas with the lower cigs in Central & South
Central KS this afternoon. The cigs should scour/dissipate toward
09/00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    44  26  47  26 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      44  26  48  25 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          43  25  45  26 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        43  25  44  26 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   45  25  47  26 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         45  25  50  25 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      45  25  50  26 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          44  26  46  26 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       42  25  46  24 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     44  24  44  24 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         42  25  42  24 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            42  25  41  24 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    43  24  43  24 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...EPS


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