Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43

000
FXUS63 KICT 172327
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
627 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Aug 17 2016

Tonight-Thursday:
Very isolated rain showers/thunderstorm possible in the vicinity
of KRSL through sunset with peak heating and proximity to surface
boundary. otherwise 1200 UTC model runs have backed off a bit on
the influx of low level moisture late tonight and tomorrow morning.
Still expect extensive low clouds late tonight, but not as sure
how widespread they will be by midday Thursday. Thickest/most
persistent clouds should remain in Southeast KS. Temperatures will
likely rival today in the areas with abundant sunshine. Isentropic
lift looks marginal to justify pops tonight/early, although a
stray shower/thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out.
Marginally better chance late in the afternoon along OK border in
Southeast KS where moisture will be deeper.

Thursday night-Friday night:
Still appears to be small chances for elevated precipitation in
Southeast KS Thursday night as low level moisture increases with
chances increasing around sunrise. Then the main focus shifts to
the approaching cold front. Believe NAM may have the upper hand as
it is similar to the last system developing a line of convection
well ahead of cold front. This seems plausible given increased
heating and low level moisture. While shear is relatively weak,
combo of DCAPE and 2500 to 3000 j/kg CAPE probably good enough
for a couple severe storms. This will move southeast on Friday
night while a second band of mainly light rain develops
near/behind cold front.

Saturday-Saturday night:
Models have continued trend from 0000 UTC towards a more
progressive pattern. At this point bulk of precipitation will be
limited to Southeast KS around daybreak Saturday. NAM suggests
secondary surge of low level moisture associated with cold pool
well behind surface front. This seems reasonable and given good
surface heating/lapse rates, some isolated-scattered instability
showers/thunderstorms would likely develop. This will keep low
chances of rain going throughout the day area wide, but best
chances appear to be east of i-135 and north of highway 400.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Aug 17 2016

With influx of drier air Saturday night, mostly clear and cool
conditions are expected on Sunday-Monday as high pressure builds
over plains. Return flow develops on Sunday night with gradient
warmup ensuing. Influx of moisture and shortwave moving through
generates QFP from both GFS/ECMWF starting early Tuesday and
continue through Wednesday which seems reasonable. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Wed Aug 17 2016

Isolated showers/thunderstorms will be possible in northwest-
north-central Kansas tonight, on the eastern edge of a nearly
stationary vort lobe over eastern Colorado. Will carry VCTS at RSL
early this evening, as convective inhibition should take over
late. Areas of MVFR ceilings/visibilities may develop roughly
from a ICT-CNU line southward early Thursday morning with higher
dewpoint advection from the south. This should translate to
scattered cumulus decks across most of the terminals from midday
into the afternoon hours. A southerly wind component will prevail
during the forecast valid period, with some gusts around 20 knots
in central Kansas Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  89  70  91 /  10  10  10  20
Hutchinson      70  91  70  91 /  10  10  10  30
Newton          69  89  70  90 /   0  10  10  30
ElDorado        69  88  70  89 /  10  10  10  40
Winfield-KWLD   70  88  70  89 /  10  10  20  30
Russell         68  95  68  90 /  10  10  10  30
Great Bend      68  93  68  91 /  10   0  10  30
Salina          70  94  70  90 /  10  10  10  30
McPherson       69  92  69  90 /  10  10  10  30
Coffeyville     69  86  69  88 /  10  20  30  30
Chanute         69  87  70  87 /  10  10  20  30
Iola            69  87  70  87 /  10  10  20  30
Parsons-KPPF    69  86  70  88 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...JMC



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.