Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 210425
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1125 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

The main challenge is timing of the weekend "cold frontal" passage
and affect on temperatures and trends in precip/convective chances.
Until then, low level temperatures will continue to warm under
the upper ridge ahead of the front through Saturday. In this
regard, the spirit of the going forecast remains on track with a
lean toward modified persistence for maximum temperatures. The
general model consensus supports a late day fropa in central
Kansas on Saturday. A narrow ribbon of compressional warming may
also add a couple degrees to the already oppressive temperatures.
Still a bit of a challenge on its location, though for now will
show this between the I-70 and US-50 corridors. Widely scattered
high based convection is possible as well by early evening along
the front with some southward development across central Kansas.
An upper trof will drop southeast across the Upper Midwest/western
Great Lakes Saturday night and Sunday. At the same time, a weaker
shear axis in combo with weak perturbations within a decaying
monsoonal flow will migrate east and south across the area. This
looks to interact with the southward moving surface front where an
axis of higher precipitable water values will reside. This should
foster diurnally enhanced convective chances across southern
Kansas on Sunday. The post-frontal airmass will break the triple
digit heat, though only dropping temperature close to July climo.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Weak mean flow aloft and subtle disturbances look to meander
across the region early next week before the upper ridge builds
over the area again by mid-week. Plan to retain rather modest
precip/convective chances Monday/Tuesday and then trend hot and
dry by Wednesday.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Expecting VFR conditions to persist at all terminals during this
forecast valid period. Marginal low-level wind shear is progged at
1,500 ft agl overnight across central Kansas, with a
southwesterly low-level jet around 35-40 knots, at the top of the
inversion. A lee trough will intensify slightly on Friday.
Diurnally gusty south-southwesterly winds will develop by midday
into the afternoon hours, with occasional gusts of 20-25 knots
likely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    77 103  78 104 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      77 104  77 106 /   0   0   0  10
Newton          77 103  78 104 /   0   0   0  10
ElDorado        76 101  77 102 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   77 101  77 102 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         76 105  76 102 /   0   0   0  20
Great Bend      76 104  76 104 /   0   0   0  10
Salina          80 107  80 106 /   0   0   0  20
McPherson       77 104  77 105 /   0   0   0  10
Coffeyville     75  98  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         76  99  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            75  99  77 100 /   0   0   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    75  98  77 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...JMC



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