Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 190819
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
319 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

For this morning, the best elevated moisture transport and
instability will remain just north of the forecast area as
the warm front shifts north as well. So plan to keep a dry
forecast with perhaps just an isolated mention until 12z
for the Salina area.

The spirit of the going forecast remains on track for late this
afternoon through tonight with regard to chances for strong to
severe deep convection as an amplifying upper trof moves eastward
across the northern/central Plains. The increased westerly flow
aloft will result in stronger deep layer shear as a cold front
overtakes a dry-line across central Kansas. Despite the initial
capping in place during the early afternoon, the increased
convergence along the front will overcome the weakening cap to
initiate/sustain convection by this evening as it moves southeast
across the forecast area. MLCAPE values near 2000 J/KG and bulk
shear values greater than 40kts will promote organized severe
convection with supercells possible early on with a large hail
risk. A transition to quasi-linear is expected as the evening
progresses with more of a damaging wind risk. There may be a
narrow window in the first hour or two of convective development
for a couple brief tornadoes, as the GFS and more so the NAM, show
some stretching potential along the surface front with 0-3km CAPE
values around 150 J/KG. A few strong to marginally severe storms
will remain possible overnight, though a general weakening trend
is expected as convection moves into southeast Kansas. A much
cooler, near seasonable airmass will advect south across Kansas
for Thursday with lingering precip chances diminishing across
southeast Kansas during the day.

Only a very brief respite in precip chances is expected across
the area for part of the day Thursday, before the next upper trof
approaches from the western CONUS. A closed upper low is still
progged to evolve across Kansas by late Friday with the deepening
tropospheric low moving east into Missouri on Saturday. Modest to
strong moisture transport in the isentropic lift regime ahead of
the upper low will get the rainy and occasionally stormy pattern
going on Friday with temperatures well below climo. While the more
unstable surface warm sector looks to remain just south of Kansas,
the stronger winds and diffluent flow aloft Friday afternoon and
evening will overspread southeast Kansas where modest elevated
instability should be present. So besides locally heavy rainfall,
a few strong to marginally severe storms remain possible.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

As the system begins to pull away Friday night into Saturday,
much of the area looks to be affected by the wrap-around precip
with latest trends suggesting perhaps a slightly quicker demise
to the rain from west to east. Little change to the outer periods
with more seasonable temperatures and dry weather through early
next week.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

VFR conditions are expected across the area for the overnight hours.
The low level jet will increase winds just off the surface for the
early morning hours on Wed, with low level wind shear of 40kts
possible at around 2000 feet agl. The low level jet and moisture
transport will increase by Wed morning, which will lead to some
stratocu and possibly some MVFR cigs developing over South Central
KS by 12-14z Wed. Will insert a scattered 2500 foot deck for now, as
confidence in the lower cigs is low.

A cold front will begin to push into Central KS by late Wed
afternoon. Could see some TSRA develop along this front across
Central KS by around 22z/Wed, so will insert a VCTS for the
KRSL/KGBD and KSLN taf sites. expect the convection to become
widespread along the southward moving cold front after 00z/Thu, so
will go with prevailing SHRA/VCTS for most of the Central KS tafs
after 00z, and after 02z for the KHUT and KICT taf site as the
front pushes south.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    82  54  68  51 /  10  60  20  50
Hutchinson      83  52  68  49 /  20  60  10  40
Newton          81  51  66  49 /  10  60  10  30
ElDorado        83  54  68  50 /  10  70  20  40
Winfield-KWLD   82  56  69  52 /  10  50  30  60
Russell         85  47  69  47 /  30  40   0  20
Great Bend      85  48  69  47 /  40  50   0  30
Salina          84  50  69  49 /  40  70   0  10
McPherson       82  51  68  48 /  20  70  10  20
Coffeyville     83  59  70  53 /   0  60  50  70
Chanute         82  57  68  51 /  10  60  50  50
Iola            82  56  68  50 /  10  60  40  40
Parsons-KPPF    82  58  69  53 /   0  60  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...BDK


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