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000
FXUS63 KICT 171743
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1243 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

UPDATED 18Z AVIATION SECTION.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER SOUTHEAST
KS AT THIS TIME...AS A REMNANT MESO-CONVECTIVE VORT MAX (MCV) FROM
LAST NIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST.  EXPECT THIS DIMINISHING TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURNING TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON...AS SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS MCV SLOWLY MOVES INTO
THE AREA.  ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF THIS TREND...AS SHOWERS ACROSS
CEN KS ARE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY. SO WILL SEND OUT AN UPDATE TO REFINE
POPS...WITH THIS TREND IN MIND. REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
LOOKS DRY...AS ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION WAS THOROUGHLY WORKED
OVER BY LAST NIGHTS COMPLEX OF STORMS...WITH SUBSIDENCE REMAINING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

WITH MOST OF FORECAST BEING AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE/MESOSCALE
FEATURES AND NONE OF THE MODELS HAVING A LOCK ON THE CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. IN THE NEAR TERM...THIS
MORNINGS MCS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST SOUTHEAST AT A GOOD CLIP AND
WILL LIKELY EXIT THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE. WHAT HAPPENS IN ITS WAKE
IS NOT CLEAR...ALTHOUGH AT PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IS LIKELY. HOWEVER THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GOOD PUSH OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR IN
ITS WAKE...SO THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT MORE STORMS WILL REDEVELOP EITHER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA ON REMNANT CONVERGENCE/MINIMUM CINH
AREAS...AND/OR MORE STORMS ROLL INTO THE AREA TONIGHT FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS. THE LATTER SEEMS SLIGHTLY MORE PROBABLE AT THIS
TIME. THE FORMER PLAYED OUT YESTERDAY ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF WHERE
MODELS SHOWED LEAST CINH...ACTUALLY WHERE CINH WAS SUPPOSE TO BE
MAXIMIZED. AT THIS TIME WILL GO DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING FIGURING COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE LOW/LESS 20 PERCENT...AND
THEN GO WITH SMALL POPS ALONG BOTH WEST FOR HIGH PLAINS STORMS
AND OVER THE SOUTH FOR RETURN MOISTURE/MODEST LOW LEVEL JET.

BEYOND TONIGHT...HAVE GENERALLY WENT ALONG WITH GUIDANCE WITH NO
DISTINCT SIGNALS TO SWAY FORECAST ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. HOWEVER
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE MODEST CONSENSUS FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
STORMS TUE NIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL OVER WESTERN
KS/WESTERN OK. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

WITH LESS CLEAR SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION...LESS CLOUDS AND
BUIDING HEIGHTS...INITIALIZATION TREND OF WARMER/DRIER SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. THIS OF COURSE WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE/CONVECTIVE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

REMNANT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
KS FOR AT LEAST A MORE HOURS.  EXPECT THIS AREA OF PRECIP TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST AND END LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY LEAD TO SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 3500 FT AGL...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY RENEWED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WILL KEEP
THINGS CAPPED OFF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO CEN KS FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER EXTREME NW KS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    85  65  84  65 / 100  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      87  64  84  64 /  90  10  10  20
NEWTON          85  64  83  63 / 100  10  10  10
ELDORADO        84  64  83  64 / 100  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  65  85  65 /  10  20  10  10
RUSSELL         87  63  83  64 /  10  20  10  30
GREAT BEND      86  63  83  64 /  10  20  10  30
SALINA          87  64  85  65 /  20  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       87  64  84  64 / 100  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     83  66  86  66 / 100  20  10  10
CHANUTE         83  64  85  65 / 100  10  10  10
IOLA            83  64  85  65 / 100  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    84  65  85  65 / 100  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$