Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 270450
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1150 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Main forecast challenge this evening into early Saturday morning
is convective trends across central and eastern Kansas. Surface
heating continues to destabilize airmass along the turnpike
corridor where effective bulk shear of 35-40 kts resides. A weak
line of surface convergence trailing south over the Flint Hills
will provide one area of focus for storms into the early even
hours in advance of an upper shortwave emanating from the eastern
Texas panhandle into northwest Oklahoma. A few severe storms can
be expected across the Flint Hills into parts of southeast Kansas
with perhaps a few isolated storms even across south central
Kansas. Convection across western Kansas was developing in
response to an approaching northern stream upper trof across the
northern Rockies. Decent 850-700 mb warm advection and moisture
transport will develop across central Kansas as this trof moves
east across the northern Plains. This should allow the high Plains
convection to develop or move eastward across central Kansas
tonight with highest PoPs close to the I-70 corridor. Some weak
moisture transport may linger across parts of central and eastern
Kansas through Saturday morning so will decrease but linger PoPs
and clouds to start the day. Otherwise, it will remain seasonably
warm but rather humid through the weekend and into Monday. There
is general consensus in geopotential height rises with some
ridging aloft across the area. However, the low level airmass will
remain unstable with relatively cool mid-level temperatures. So
despite weaker forcing or focus mechanisms will maintain low to
modest PoPs across the area.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Despite a general upper ridging over the Plains will maintain
slight to modest PoPs into much of next week as we look to
maintain a moist/unstable southerly low level flow with some
potential for periodic sub-tropical connection aloft.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

A few clusters of showers/thunderstorms will affect locations
generally north of a line extending from Great Bend to McPherson
to Hillsboro overnight. Continued with VCTS at Russell, Great
Bend and Salina along with a few hours of TEMPO TS. Thinking
activity should exit the region to the east by 12 UTC. Otherwise,
diurnal cooling and moist low-levels should result in areas of
low clouds and possibly lower visibilities late tonight into early
Saturday morning. Confidence is low regarding this scenario, so
only covered with FEW009 SCT015 for now at most sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    68  88  69  89 /  20  20  20  20
Hutchinson      67  86  68  88 /  30  20  30  20
Newton          67  86  68  88 /  20  30  20  20
ElDorado        67  87  68  88 /  20  20  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   68  89  69  90 /  20  20  20  20
Russell         63  86  66  89 /  60  20  30  20
Great Bend      64  87  66  89 /  40  20  30  20
Salina          66  86  68  89 /  60  40  30  20
McPherson       66  85  68  88 /  30  30  30  20
Coffeyville     68  90  70  91 /  40  20  20  20
Chanute         68  87  69  88 /  40  20  20  20
Iola            68  87  68  88 /  40  30  20  20
Parsons-KPPF    68  89  69  90 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...ADK


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