Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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635
FXUS63 KICT 161732
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1232 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Showers and storms will be ongoing early in the period and may allow
the effective front to be forced further south lowering confidence
in the afternoon forecast. The latest model consensus suggests the
front will set up along or just west of the Kansas Turnpike corridor
by early to mid afternoon. Convergence along the front will be
sufficient to overcome the cap with scattered to numerous storms
anticipated after 21z. MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/KG combined with
steep mid lvl lapse rates and 0-6km bulk shear of 30-40 knots should
allow for a few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds.
Drier air will quickly arrive in the wake of the front with storm
activity diminishing by 09Z or so.

A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated across the area on
Thursday and Thursday evening with seasonable temperatures expected.

Another progressive shortwave trough will dig across the Upper
Mississippi Valley area on Friday driving a cold front south across
the Central Plains states. This front may provide a focus for deep
moist convection on Friday afternoon and Friday evening. If model
trends remain consistent, another round of severe thunderstorms will
be possible across the area on Friday afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Shortwave ridging will return to the area over the weekend
with mostly dry weather conditions and rising temperatures. Highs on
Sunday may climb above normal across the area reaching the mid 90s
over central KS.

Unsettled weather may return early in the week as northwest
mid/upper flow is progged across the central Conus. Another cold
front may arrive toward the end of the period bringing higher
probabilities for showers and storms once again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Main aviation concern will be late afternoon/evening storms.

Morning storms are finally pushing out of southeast KS. Cold front
currently stretches from just south of KSLN to between KGBD and
KHUT. This front is expected to continue tracking southeast this
afternoon. Storms are expected to develop along the front in a
couple hours, generally along the KS Turnpike, and track southeast
into the evening hours. If KICT does see storms, it is not
expected to last long, as the front should be southeast of the
area by 21z. KCNU will have the best chance to see more widespread
storms generally after 22z with some severe storms possible.

Some MVFR cigs are in place over central KS behind the front and
are expected to remain in place for at least a couple more hours.
Some of this may try to work into KHUT and KICT after the front
moves through. By 06z, confidence is high that only very far
southeast will have a chance at storms as drier air spills into
the forecast area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    90  67  88  67 /  50  30   0  20
Hutchinson      89  65  88  66 /  30  20   0  20
Newton          88  65  86  66 /  50  30   0  10
ElDorado        88  66  86  66 /  60  50   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   91  68  88  68 /  60  50   0  20
Russell         85  61  89  65 /  20  10   0  30
Great Bend      85  62  88  65 /  20  10   0  30
Salina          87  65  89  66 /  20  20   0  20
McPherson       88  64  87  65 /  30  20   0  20
Coffeyville     88  71  88  67 /  70  70  10  10
Chanute         87  69  86  65 /  70  70  10  10
Iola            87  69  86  65 /  70  70   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    88  70  87  67 /  70  70  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KSZ070>072-
093>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...RBL



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