Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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673
FXUS63 KICT 261053
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
553 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Today-Wed:
Scattered showers & isolated thunderstorms have been ongoing
across Southeast KS where no doubt closest to the slowly-moving &
weakening cold front. The front is still expected to sink further
SE today & should reach from just N of KSTL through around KSGF &
the central Red River to far Southwest TX this evening. Scattered
showers & perhaps isolated thunderstorms will continue across
South-Central & especially Southeast KS each period. The behavior
of the front coupled with the weak sfc high forcing it further SE
dictates lowering PoPs across far Southern KS as these periods
progress. All precipitation would end Wed evening as the
southward-moving sfc high becomes the dominant feature.

Thu & Thu Night:
The sfc high will slowly become less dominant as a sfc cyclone
becomes more assertive over the Desert Southwest. The sfc
cyclone`s strengthening would be induced by a deepening upper-
deck trof that`ll undergo modest cyclogenesis over primarily AZ on
Wed. However, the sfc cyclone would remain well west of the CWA as
the cut-off low would enable the mid-upper ridge extending from
strong high pressure centered over the TX Gulf Coast to Alberta &
Saskatchewan to greatly amplify. This would keep all of the
immediate KS neighborhood dry both periods.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Fri-Sun:
With the afore-mentioned high-amplitude ridge covering the Great
Plains dry weather would continue for most of the upcoming
weekend.

Mon:
The next chance for rain & thunderstorms should arrive as a strong
mid-upper cyclone, surging E/SE over the Northern Rockies Sunday
Night pushes a sharp cold front SE toward Central KS. The front
should decelerate as the intensifying mid-upper cyclone gets
forced N/NE by the strong mid-upper ridge that`ll extend from the
Gulf Coast all the way to Hudson Bay. This should keep the chances
for rain & thunderstorms low for KICT Country.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 543 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Scattered rain showers will affect southeastern Kansas into this
afternoon, and will use a VCSH at the CNU terminal.

Otherwise, IFR stratus will blanket the central/eastern Kansas
terminals this morning, with gradual improvement to MVFR by this
afternoon. The central Kansas terminals should be VFR by 21 UTC,
with less optimism above MVFR in the southeast where lesser drying
is indicated in the boundary layer.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    69  57  71  53 /  20  20  20   0
Hutchinson      68  54  70  51 /  20   0  10   0
Newton          68  55  69  51 /  20  10  10   0
ElDorado        69  56  69  52 /  30  20  20   0
Winfield-KWLD   70  58  70  54 /  30  30  40  10
Russell         66  50  69  49 /   0   0  10   0
Great Bend      66  50  69  49 /   0   0  10   0
Salina          67  53  71  50 /  10   0  10   0
McPherson       67  53  70  50 /  10   0  10   0
Coffeyville     77  61  71  56 /  90  40  50  10
Chanute         74  60  71  54 /  70  40  30   0
Iola            74  58  71  53 /  70  30  30   0
Parsons-KPPF    76  61  71  56 /  80  40  40  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...JMC



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