Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 230750
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
250 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

A cold front currently over northern Neb will rapidly drop south
across the forecast area during the morning hours.  Expecting a dry
frontal passage as atmosphere ahead of the front is very dry.  The
dry low layers will lead to dry adiabatic lapse rates on the north
side of the front, with good mixing up to 750h. This will produce
sustained winds of 30-35 mph and gusts to 45 mph into the afternoon
hours. So will issue a wind advisory for portions of central KS.
The gusty winds will also lead to some fire weather concerns. See
the fire section below. Even with the early frontal passage expect
max temps similar to yesterday with good downslope flow.

Tonight-Wed: This secondary shot of cooler air will lead to slightly
cooler than normal temps for tonight through Tue.  Expecting winds
to remain mixy enough to prevent frost tonight, but the surface
ridge will drop south along the front range with winds diminishing
enough for some patchy frost by Wed morning. Downslope flow should
allow for a nice temp rebound across the western half of the
forecast area by Wednesday. May have to keep an eye on strong gusty
winds on Tue as well, with the potential for winds to come close to
wind advisory criteria again.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

NW to northerly flow will remain in control for most of the
workweek, with another significant clipper type shortwave dropping
into the Great Lakes for Thu night and Fri. This shortwave will
help push another sharp cold front down across the area for Thu.
This shortwave dislodges some chilly northern Canadian air
straight south, with the coldest air staying just to the NE of the
forecast area. Still expecting to see some of the coldest air of
the fall, with nearly steady temps after the front moves through
on Thu. 850h temps of minus 8 deg. C drop south by Fri and Fri
night, with freezing temps expected to settle over the area by Fri
night/early Sat morning. Low layers remain very dry, with the
latest medium range models suggesting another dry frontal passage.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Aviation concern remain change in wind direction and speed
associated with cold front passage.

Cold front is still expected to move through during the day Mon.
Should move through KRSL and 12z and KICT around 15z. Winds will
flip around to the nw after the front pushes through. In addition,
they will increase to around 30 mph with gusts to around 40 mph
with these higher speeds most likely along and west of I-135. They
should start to decrease near sunset Mon. Confidence remains high
that VFR condition will remain in place through the next 24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A strong cold front will push southeast across the area this
morning. After the front pushes south, gusty northwest winds and
relative humidity levels dropping into the 25-30 percent range, will
create very high grassland fire danger values across central KS today
and again on Tuesday afternoon.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  44  61  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      70  43  62  38 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          68  43  59  38 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        69  43  59  38 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   71  44  61  39 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         67  41  61  38 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      68  41  61  37 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          69  43  61  39 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       69  43  61  38 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     71  44  61  38 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         69  44  59  37 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            69  43  58  38 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    70  44  60  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for KSZ032-033-047>052.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham


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