Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 280544
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1144 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

TNGT: QUIET WEATHER FOR ANY EVENING THANKSGIVING ACTIVITIES...THOUGH
A LITTLE CHILLY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION RETURNS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THUS
CENTRAL AND PERHAPS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAY SEE LOWEST TEMPERATURES
WELL BEFORE THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

FRI-SAT: EARLY PART OF THANKSGIVING WEEKEND LOOKS PLEASANT. DECENT
WARMUP WITH TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND BOTH DOWNSLOPE WARMING
AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. H8 THERMAL RIDGE OF 12-16 DEG C
ORIENTED JUST SOUTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY...WHICH DISPLACES
ALONG THE OK-KS BORDER ON SATURDAY WITH H8 TEMPS CREEPING UP INTO
THE 18-20C RANGE.  SURFACE TO H8 WIND FLOW FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
BOTH DAYS...THOUGH SURFACE FLOW SLACKENS SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY. BUFR
SOUNDINGS REFINING MIXING ONLY TO ABT 900MB...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE
INTO TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...AND LOWER 60S CENTRAL KANSAS.  TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE ABOUT CATEGORY WARMER.

SUN: THE NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER COMES TO AN END ON
SUNDAY...AS BOTH SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A RATHER VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN...CARVING BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
CENTRAL CONUS. PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE IN TURN WILL DRIVE AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT INTO THE PLAINS FOR SUN MORNING. TIMING OF THE FRONT
THROUGH BULK OF CWA STILL LOOKS TO BE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...THUS INSOLATION WILL BE BATTLING WARM AIR ADVECTION...THUS
EXPECT ATYPICAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND WITH WARMEST READINGS IN
THE MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH IN
CENTRAL KS TO PRODUCE STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...WITH TEMPS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS POSSIBLY AGAIN REACHING THE
LOW 60S.

GULF REMAINS CUTOFF...AND RH MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR SCANT FOR BULK
OF CWA...SO EXPECTING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXCEPTION MAY BE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE ENOUGH COLD/WARM CONVEYOR BELT
MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND SURFACE LOW TO SATURATE H9 TO H7 LEVELS AND
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES DUE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT.  ASIDE FROM
FALLING TEMPERATURES THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS...PERHAPS UP TO 30 MPH.

SF

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MON:  MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER RAW DAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING. SOME STRATUS MAY BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...FURTHER CAPPING WARM-UP POTENTIAL. COMBINATION OF A
NEBULOUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ENHANCING WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AGAIN MAY SQUEEZE OUT VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST PERHAPS LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE THAT ANY MATERIALIZES.

TUE-THU: UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS QUICKLY TO QUASI-ZONAL
PATTERN...THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY DECEMEBER. OVERALL ENSEMBLES LOOK RATHER
MIXED...WITH QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN THE GEFS MEMBERS WITH REGARD
TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM... AS WELL AS THEIR OPERATIONAL COUNTERPARTS.
GEFS SHOWING MORE CONSISTENCY WITH NORTHERN STREAM VORTEX...WHICH
DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL PLAINS WED-THU.  AGAIN...MOISTURE LOOKS SCANT...
BUT THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT RIDGING ALONG GULF COAST WILL
BREAK DOWN SOON ENOUGH TO ALLOW BETTER MOISTURE RETURN INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS ON THE LOW SIDE.

SF

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW OCCASIONAL MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO STREAM SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT INTO FRIDAY...KEEPING
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS OF 23-28 KNOTS
EXPECTED AT ICT AND CNU TERMINALS. THE GUSTS WILL DROP OFF TOWARD
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH WINDS REMAINING SOUTHERLY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  59  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      30  61  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          31  58  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        33  59  42  64 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   32  60  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         28  65  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      30  65  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          30  61  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       30  62  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     31  61  46  68 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         29  57  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            29  57  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    30  58  44  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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