Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 211134
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
634 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SHARP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE OZARK REGION
WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN CO/FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT ANY FOG WILL
BURN OFF BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THE SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE NOW OVER THE NW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. DURING THE DAY WED THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS WEST OF I-135 AND WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET WET FROM WED AFTERNOON-
EARLY THU MORNING...ALSO CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS PICKING UP LESS THAN A HALF
INCH. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED AND THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FOR FRI AND SAT. 850MB TEMPS FROM BOTH MEDIUM MODELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 18-21 C RANGE WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT HIGHS ON BOTH FRI AND SAT WILL BE WELL IN
THE 80S WITH UPPER 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BY SUN SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO COME ON SHORE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MORNING MORNING. THE
GFS LEAVES IT AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SW. WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT
FOR MON UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-RSL-CNU...STILL ANTICIPATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...ESPECIALLY FOR CNU...WHERE PATCHY
AND SHORT-LIVED MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCT-BKN VFR
CIGS AROUND 4000 FT AGL SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    81  57  79  58 /  10  10  10  50
HUTCHINSON      79  56  79  56 /  10  10  20  50
NEWTON          77  56  75  57 /   0  10  10  50
ELDORADO        78  56  79  58 /   0  10  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  40
RUSSELL         77  56  76  52 /   0  10  40  60
GREAT BEND      77  55  76  52 /   0  10  30  60
SALINA          78  56  77  56 /   0   0  20  60
MCPHERSON       78  56  76  56 /   0  10  20  60
COFFEYVILLE     77  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40
CHANUTE         76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
IOLA            76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    76  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



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