Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 220813
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
313 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

A cold front over northwestern Kansas, will continue pushing
southward into southern Kansas this morning, then out of south-
central/southeast Kansas early this afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms will occur this early morning along the front, with
diminishing chances in the far south later this morning into early
afternoon. Localized pockets of heavy rainfall could still affect
particularly southeast Kansas prior to daybreak near an outflow
boundary, in an area of strong 850 moisture transport, upper-level
diffluent flow, and anomalously high precipitable water near 2
inches.

Noticeably cooler and drier air will filter southward across the
area behind the front, bringing highs slightly below seasonal
averages for today through Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Medium range models were in decent agreement in depicting several
shortwaves moving out of the Rockies across the central Plains
Friday into this weekend. Southerly return flow and moisture
advection is indicated Thursday night through Friday night,
potentially weakening some over the weekend. The medium range
models are indicating a tropical cyclone (Harvey remnants) redeveloping
over the southwest Gulf of Mexico by Thursday, with this system
intensifying as it tracks northwestward, possibly reaching south
Texas sometime Friday into Friday night. There are the usual model
variations in the track that are likely to fluctuate more between
now and at least Thursday, but the ECMWF,GFS,GEM have the tropical
cyclone making landfall anywhere from South Padre Island to Port
O` Connor.

Scattered showers/thunderstorms should affect portions of
western/central Kansas Thursday night and Friday. Forecast
uncertainty in rain chances increases over the weekend, in large
part due to the tropical system progged to slow down over south
Texas, which could rob moisture return to the Kansas region.
Forecast confidence remains high that afternoon high temperatures
in our forecast area will remain slightly cooler than seasonal
averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to impact
the region overnight, as a strong cold front approaches from the
northwest, interacting with rich monsoonal moisture streaming in
from the southwest. Thinking the greatest chances will be
generally along/east of I-135. Covered this threat with VCTS for
now, although may eventually need TEMPO groups for TSRA for a
handful of TAF sites. Winds will switch to north/northeasterly and
gusty in wake of the frontal passage later tonight into Tuesday
morning, along with possibly a transient zone of MVFR ceilings.
Only went SCT015 for now, but will continue to monitor.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    86  59  83  60 /  30   0   0   0
Hutchinson      85  56  83  59 /  20   0   0   0
Newton          85  57  81  58 /  30   0   0   0
ElDorado        85  58  81  58 /  40   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   87  59  83  60 /  30  10   0   0
Russell         84  55  86  59 /  10   0   0  10
Great Bend      85  56  85  59 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          85  57  85  58 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       85  56  83  58 /  20   0   0   0
Coffeyville     87  60  83  59 /  50  10   0   0
Chanute         85  58  81  59 /  60  10   0   0
Iola            84  57  80  58 /  50   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    86  58  82  59 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ADK



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