Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 242044
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
344 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

The central United States trough maintains with the main wrapped
up low pressure system across southern Saskatchewan into the
Dakotas with external extents staying along the Rockies. High
pressure over the Southeast maintains its dominance resulting in
persistent southwest flow for the rest of the week in the Central
Plains. A cold front stretching from northern Missouri to
southeast Nebraska into central and southwest Kansas is expected
to help initiate showers and thunderstorms along it this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Primary focus - Precipitation specifically heavy rain potential
tonight and tomorrow night depending on the activity associated with
the frontal boundary. Flooding could be a great concern the next
couple of days depending on the evolution of the activity.

Morning elevated activity has diminished leading to a clearing in
the clouds for diurnal heating to set the stage for the southeast
moving cold front; the merger with an outflow boundary from the
morning activity very well could lead to convective development.
This front is certainly not off to the races which begs the question
of potential training for areas of central and northeast Kansas. CIN
persists in central Kansas this afternoon following the morning
activity. MUCAPE has increased to around 2000 J/kg across south
central Kansas with 40 to 50kts of effective bulk shear based on
the latest meso analysis. This instability could initiate severe
thunderstorms this evening with quarter sized hail and 60mph
winds possible. Right now widespread severe storms are not
expected. Composite reflectivity model simulations indicate
development around 0z for south central Kansas.

The trough over the central CONUS and high in the Southeast are
keeping a southwest flow regime for the Plains with the faucet of
moisture remaining in the on position for the rest of this week.
Precipitable water values of 1.5 to 2 are forecast for this
timeframe leaving ample available moisture. Given the
thunderstorms across McPherson, Marion and Harvey counties from a
few days ago that generated over two inches, this would be the
area with greatest flooding likelihood highlighted with over four
inches for the next five days from Hutchinson to Emporia to the
Kansas City vicinity by HPC. Areas further north and southwest
have not received the rain in the last ten days or even the month
of August in some cases; this would aid in a diminished flooding
threat at least initially beyond the high rainfall rates in a
short period of time due to any thunderstorms with minimal
movement or training.

Since the models are suggesting that northeast Kansas into the KC
metro will be the target for heavier rainfall tonight while
questions loom in spread and persistence of activity further
southwest tonight, it is difficult to jump on board with any flood
headlines. Thus the thought is to wait to see how things evolve
this evening to see if one would warranted in the next forecast
issuance or even an update before then. Precipitation chances
were tweaked to account for latest guidance, but it is still a
toss up due to the uncertainty in frontal movement and potential
outflow influence. Therefore repeated chances of thunderstorms
exist for the short term.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

The high pressure system over the Southeast will spread to cover
the eastern half of the CONUS for the weekend. There is a trough
that will strengthen and move down from Hudson Bay while remaining
in Canada which will only squish the high. A ridge is anticipated
for this part of the country for the first part of the week which
means consistent temperatures for the latter periods. ECMWF has
brought in a tightly wrapped tropical system with a track across
the Gulf which has varied between runs. The GFS has started to
hint at something similar. This certainly peaks the interest meter
given the strength at such a point in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Scattered to numerous strong to severe convection is expected to
develop along a cold front late this afternoon and early evening
over south central Kansas and the Flint Hills. Storms will
fester along the front expanding a bit into southeast Kansas and
eventually develop behind the front across central Kansas tonight.
While mainly VFR conditions will prevail through this evening
away from any storms, some MVFR CIGS are expected to develop
behind the front across central Kansas overnight.

KED


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    69  83  66  84 /  60  60  70  30
Hutchinson      66  79  63  82 /  70  60  60  40
Newton          67  80  64  82 /  70  60  70  30
ElDorado        68  83  65  84 /  60  60  60  40
Winfield-KWLD   70  88  67  87 /  50  50  50  30
Russell         62  75  61  78 /  60  50  50  40
Great Bend      63  75  61  80 /  60  50  60  40
Salina          66  76  63  81 /  70  50  60  40
McPherson       66  78  63  81 /  80  60  60  40
Coffeyville     72  92  69  87 /  20  40  50  30
Chanute         70  87  67  85 /  40  50  50  30
Iola            69  86  66  84 /  50  60  60  30
Parsons-KPPF    71  90  68  86 /  30  40  50  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...KED



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