Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 280855
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
255 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH LEE TROUGHING AT THE
SURFACE. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO
THE 20S AND 30S THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENT COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TODAY AND
SATURDAY LOOK TO BE WARM...ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ABUNDANT SUN AND
SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP TEMPS REACH INTO THE 60S
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

THINGS WILL CHANGE ON SUNDAY AS A COLD AIRMASS IS DISLODGED BY A
WAVE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ENTER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEKEND AND START THE
WORK WEEK. WITH THE DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE...HAVE A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE...WITH A MORNING HIGH TEMPERATURE EXPECTED. WITH
THE MAIN WAVE ENERGY ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. HOWEVER...AS IT APPROACHES THE MORE
MOIST AIRMASS AS IT MOVES SOUTH...SOME PRECIPITATION COULD
DEVELOP...FEEL THIS WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF US AT THIS TIME
AND HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY. WILL WANT TO WATCH THIS PERIOD
THOUGH FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...IF GUIDANCE DOES EVOLVE TO SHOW
PRECIPITATION THE QUESTION WOULD BE IF IT`S LIQUID OR FROZEN. WILL
FINE TUNE IN LATER FORECASTS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

DECEMBER WILL START OFF COOL WITH MONDAY BEING WELL BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD QUICKLY...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
MODERATE BACK TO NEAR THE LOW 50 DEGREE NORMALS BY MID-WEEK. THE
NEXT CHANGE WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. WHILE THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES WITH TIMING...THE CURRENT
CONSENSUS SHOWS LIQUID PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
KANSAS THURSDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW OCCASIONAL MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO STREAM SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT INTO FRIDAY...KEEPING
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS OF 23-28 KNOTS
EXPECTED AT ICT AND CNU TERMINALS. THE GUSTS WILL DROP OFF TOWARD
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH WINDS REMAINING SOUTHERLY.

JMC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  39  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      62  35  66  32 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          59  39  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        60  42  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  42  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         68  34  65  31 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      68  35  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          65  35  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       62  35  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     60  47  68  48 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         58  45  65  46 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            58  45  64  45 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    59  46  67  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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