Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 282328
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
628 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Forecast highlights/challenges continue to focus around
thunderstorm chances this evening/tonight through Friday evening,
and again Sunday into next week.

This evening-tonight...Could see an isolated thunderstorm or two
after 5-7 PM generally north of Great Bend to Salina, as a weak
frontal zone/wind shift approaches from the northwest. Upper
support is negligible to non-existent and surface convergence is
weak, so there`s a chance the cap will not be breached for storm
development. However, if a storm or two can manage to form, strong
instability coupled with modest deep layer shear would promote
severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. Thinking
thunderstorm chances will gradually increase in coverage across
northern and northwest Kansas as the evening progresses, mainly
along/north of I- 70, as a strengthening low-level jet impinges on
the nearly stalled frontal zone, and subtle shortwave approaches
from the west. This activity may initially pose a large hail
threat, but should gradually transition to a wind threat, with
sporadic damaging wind occurrences possible.

Thursday...Severe storm development is a bit more uncertain than
previously thought Thursday afternoon-evening. Latest short-term
guidance suggests tonight`s thunderstorm complex will track a bit
further north than previously thought, which makes sense given the
orientation and location of the better 700mb thermal gradient and
RAP instability axis. This lends confidence in Thursday`s frontal
placement from northeast KS, southwest into central and southwest
KS. However, like today weak upper forcing and relatively warm
mid- level temperatures may tend to limit thunderstorm coverage
along the front during the late afternoon, with chances possibly
holding off altogether until the evening and overnight when better
upper forcing approaches from the west and the low-level jet
increases. Regardless, strong instability coupled with modest deep
layer shear will support severe weather with any storms that can
develop during the evening, with the threat transitioning to
isolated damaging wind occurrences and locally heavy rain Thursday
night, as activity moves into eastern/southeast KS.

Friday...Threat for storms could linger over far southeast KS for
Friday afternoon-evening, especially if Thursday night`s
thunderstorm complex remains on the smaller side and doesn`t
accelerate the frontal zone south into Oklahoma. If so, severe
storms along with heavy rain are possible. Otherwise, cooler
weather begins arriving by Friday in wake of the frontal passage.

Saturday...Fairly quiet weather expected, as high pressure builds
south in wake of the frontal passage.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Sunday through mid next week...Low confidence/low predictability
forecast for Sunday and beyond. Operational model consensus
suggests unsettled weather returning for at least Sunday and
Monday as an upper wave slowly migrates over Mid-America. Weak
upper flow should prevent widespread severe storms, although a few
strong to marginally severe storms appear possible given
instability, along with locally heavy rain. Model solutions
diverge from Tuesday and beyond, with the GFS keeping an unsettled
weather pattern all week, and the ECMWF building the upper ridge
from the southwest, resulting in better chances for quiet and warm
weather. For now will carry slight chance to chance pops for
thunderstorm through mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Showers and storms may accompany a southward moving cold front
after 06-08z across central KS. Some of this activity may
propagate southeast into portions of southeast KS during the
predawn hours. Flight categories may be reduced across central KS
and perhaps southeast Kansas under the heaviest activity. Breezy
south winds will continue through much of the night across much of
south central and southeast KS but wind gust speed will diminish
after sunset.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    73  96  69  86 /  10  10  40  30
Hutchinson      72  96  66  85 /  10  20  40  20
Newton          72  94  67  84 /  10  20  50  30
ElDorado        72  92  68  84 /  10  10  50  40
Winfield-KWLD   74  94  71  86 /   0  10  40  40
Russell         68  94  64  85 /  40  20  30  20
Great Bend      69  95  65  85 /  20  20  30  10
Salina          70  95  67  86 /  40  20  40  10
McPherson       71  95  66  85 /  10  20  40  20
Coffeyville     73  91  72  86 /   0   0  40  50
Chanute         72  90  70  84 /  10  10  50  50
Iola            71  90  69  84 /  10  10  50  50
Parsons-KPPF    73  90  71  85 /   0   0  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...MWM


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