Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 302349
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
549 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THIS EVENING: DECENT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME NOTED ON THE
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP ACROSS THE SW US. THIS MOISTURE PLUME
IS JUST AHEAD OF A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LOCATED JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CA. SEEING SOME SIGNS OF THE MOISTURE RETURN
SPILLING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AT THIS
TIME...BUT LOW LAYERS REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY...SO RADAR RETURNS NOT
HITTING THE GROUND JUST YET.

EXPECT LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE SATURATION IN THE LOW
LAYERS AS THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS MOST OF  KANSAS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN INITIALLY FOR AREAS
NORTHWEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

OVERNIGHT-SAT: ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE NIGHT-TIME CONTINUES.  THIS LIFT WILL HELP INCREASE THE
DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA FOR A
WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SAT.

TEMPS...THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO BE CRITICAL FOR PRECIP
TYPE.  LOTS OF WARM ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS IT COMES OUT OF
THE SW US. BUT THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS ARE COMING IN A LITTLE
COLDER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH SAT MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE
LIGHT RAIN MAY CHANGE TO A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR AREAS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THAT ALL THE
PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO A COLD RAIN FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SAT.
DEPTH OF THE LIFT/MOISTURE INCREASES FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
SAT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN OR FAIRLY
CONSTANT RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR SAT AFTERNOON.  SOME
AREAS COULD SEE UP TO AN HALF AN INCH OF QPF BY SAT EVENING.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY: SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL GET ABSORBED BY A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS IT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES.  THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUN.  BUT
AS THIS COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH...MOST OF THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST INTO MO. SO EXPECTING MOST OF THE PRECIP TO
GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...BUT
THE MOISTURE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST WILL ONLY LEAD TO
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN AN INCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXPECT THIS POLAR AIR TO LEAD A RATHER COLD AND RAW DAY ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION SETTLES OVER THE AREA.  EXPECT
THE COLDEST AIR TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT....WITH MIN
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS.

EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME ON MON...BUT WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME YEAR.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SOME MODERATION IN THE TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR TUE...AS DOWNSLOPE
RETURNS TO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK IMPULSE EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS
CLIMBING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

WED-THU: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PLAY
OUT.  BOTH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER SHOT OF POLAR AIR
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS ON WED.  THE BIG UNCERTAINTY LIES
WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT THIS NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING
WITH IT.  GFS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH BY WED NIGHT. BUT THE ECMWF IS
DRIER...WITH MORE OF A VERY LIGHT PRECIP CHANCE.  THINK ITS AT LEAST
WORTH A SLIGHT POP MENTION...BUT NOT EXPECTING A MAJOR PRECIP EVENT
WITH EITHER MODEL SOLUTION.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE DISTURBANCE AND
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT PRECIPITATION
TO BEGIN AS RAIN OVERNIGHT. SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN AT
KRSL/KSLN...BUT IS EXPECTED TO STAY LIQUID AT ALL OTHER LOCATIONS.
RAIN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL BE VFR EARLY...BECOMING
MVFR. IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE
REMAINED OPTIMISTIC WITH MVFR IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    35  43  34  36 /  70  80  80  20
HUTCHINSON      33  43  31  33 /  80  80  80  20
NEWTON          34  42  32  33 /  80  80  80  20
ELDORADO        35  43  33  35 /  70  80  80  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   37  44  38  39 /  70  80  80  30
RUSSELL         33  44  28  29 /  90  60  70  10
GREAT BEND      34  43  30  31 /  90  70  70  10
SALINA          34  42  29  31 /  80  80  80  20
MCPHERSON       33  42  30  32 /  80  80  80  20
COFFEYVILLE     36  46  39  43 /  70  80  80  50
CHANUTE         34  43  38  40 /  70  80  80  50
IOLA            34  43  37  39 /  70  80  80  50
PARSONS-KPPF    35  45  39  42 /  70  80  80  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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