Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 041130
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
630 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS TEMPERATURES.  CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  LOOKING AT READINGS FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS SUGGESTS THAT PERSISTENCE REMAINS A GOOD FORECAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH AT ALL THROUGH MONDAY.  A RELATIVELY
STRONG CLOSED LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE REGION.

MANY DISTURBANCES DO RIDE ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  THAT
SAID...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAIN WEST
AND NORTH OF THE AREA.  GFS/ECMWF ARE IN IS GOOD AGREEMENT HERE WITH
THIS SCENARIO.

THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS THAT IF THE RIDGE DOES FLATTEN
SOME...NOCTURNAL STORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS COULD MAKE IT INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS. BUT AT THIS TIME...PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY.

KRC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE RIDGE DOES BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE MONDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEAKENS AND EJECTS
EAST.  THIS WILL BRING A DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...ALONG WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE FRONT
SUGGESTS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS.  HOWEVER...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT STORMS WILL NOT BE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

KRC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID
PERIOD. A FEW WEAK ELEVATED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE KRSL VICINITY
THROUGH MID-MORNING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AGAIN
TODAY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    93  73  95  75 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      94  73  95  75 /  10   0   0  10
NEWTON          93  72  94  74 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        93  72  94  74 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  73  94  75 /   0   0  10   0
RUSSELL         98  74  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      97  74  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          95  75  97  77 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       94  73  95  75 /  10  10   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  72  93  74 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         91  71  93  73 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            90  72  92  73 /   0   0  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    91  72  93  74 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



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