Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 250532
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1132 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IS PRECIP TYPE/AMOUNTS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO VACATE FAR EASTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF. CHRISTMAS DAY STILL
LOOKS WINDY AND MUCH WARMER WITH STOUT SOUTH WINDS APPROACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE CORRIDOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO ELEVATE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW CRITICAL VALUES. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL TURN
TO THE DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A CLOSED LOW BY THURSDAY EVENING OVER UTAH. SHALLOW
MOISTURE RETURN BY FRIDAY MORNING MAY LEND TO SOME PATCHY FOG
AND DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE ALONG THE TURNPIKE CORRIDOR DURING
FRIDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR ADVECTING OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.
INITIAL FORCING/LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF MAY ALSO RESULT
IN SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL. THE
BRUNT OF THE WINTRY PRECIP EVENT WILL TAKE PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS THE MAIN PIECE OF THE UPPER TROF
LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE MAINLY SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL
TRANSITION TO A MIXED PHASE OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS BEFORE ENDING
MAINLY AS SNOW ON SATURDAY. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH WATER EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS AROUND ONE-QUARTER
INCH OR LESS. THIS COULD TRANSLATE INTO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
WITH SOME LIGHT ICING FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AND FOR NOW WILL
SHOW A BROADER BRUSH TO THE AREA AS TRACK AND THERMAL PROFILES
WILL LIKELY CHANGE A BIT BEFORE IT UNFOLDS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

THE RETURN TO A DEEP COLD WINTER PATTERN IS IN THE OFFING FOR
NEXT WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN
DEVELOPING A DEEPER MEAN LONGWAVE UPPER TROF AXIS FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR TO INVADE THE REGION.
SOME BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW QPF CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...MOSTLY
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PLAN TO STAY WITH THE MUCH
BELOW CLIMO TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS ADVERTISED.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH BIGGER
INCREASE JUST AFTER SUNRISE. 0000 UTC MODELS SUGGEST WINDS WILL
BE A FAIR AMOUNT STRONGER THAN 1800 UTC RUNS INDICATED. HAVE
INCREASED WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH KRSL DURING THE EVENING...AND BE APPROACHING KSLN/KHUT AT
END OF FORECAST. MVFR CEILINGS PROBABLE IN WAKE OF FRONT...BUT
SUSPECT NAM IS A BIT TOO QUICK WITH CLOUDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    27  55  33  43 /   0   0   0  20
HUTCHINSON      27  54  31  37 /   0   0   0  20
NEWTON          26  53  32  39 /   0   0   0  20
ELDORADO        27  55  35  46 /   0   0   0  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   27  55  36  48 /   0   0   0  20
RUSSELL         25  50  25  31 /   0   0  10  40
GREAT BEND      26  53  27  32 /   0   0  10  30
SALINA          26  53  29  35 /   0   0  10  30
MCPHERSON       27  53  30  36 /   0   0  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     26  57  39  53 /   0   0  10  30
CHANUTE         26  54  39  50 /   0   0  10  30
IOLA            26  54  38  49 /   0   0  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    26  56  39  52 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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