Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 032006
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
306 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

DIURNAL HEATING BENEATH LINGERING WEAK TROF ALOFT HAS RESULTED
IN WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WHERE AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE
RESIDES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THEREFORE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO SEE ITS DEMISE WITH LOSS OF HEATING TOWARD SUNSET. ELEVATED
WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT SHOULD
FOSTER CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WITH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT CARRYING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. MOST OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THE 4TH OF JULY SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HOWEVER...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROF WILL VENTURE SOUTHEAST INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROF OVER WESTERN
KANSAS BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND DECENT ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A MORE ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IF SO...THEN POPS WILL NEED TO BE
RAMPED UP ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THIS CONVECTION
WOULD LIKELY CARRY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. A WARMER AND WINDY DAY IS THEN
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON
WILL HINGE ON THE EXTENT OF ANY PRIOR ACTIVITY. IF A MORE
EXTENSIVE MCS EVOLVES THEN SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE MAY LIMIT
DIURNAL/AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. SO FOR NOW WILL RETAIN SOME
CHANCES...THOUGH TWEAK DOWN A BIT.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL
PUSH A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT FOR EARLY JULY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGHER POPS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AN OCCASIONALLY DISTURBED WESTERLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIODS AS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES INLAND. THE RETREATING SURFACE FRONT
MIGRATING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PERIODIC
CONVECTIVE EPISODES...WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE GOING
FORECAST. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE UPPER LOW TO OPEN
UP AND LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH RIDGING ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD
PORTEND TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES
BY FRIDAY.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CIGS ARE DRAWING THE GREATEST THIS AFTN AS THERE ARE AREAS THAT
ARE IN MVFR COUNTRY (~2,500FT) PRIMARILY OVER ERN KS. THE DECKS
ARE BKN & SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT SCOURING IS OCCURING. AS
SUCH...CIGS WL BE WATCHED CLOSELY. BY ~04/00Z THE STRATOCU WILL
HAVE SCOURED FROM ALL AREAS ALTHOUGH KCNU MAY SEE BKN DECKS
~8,000FT THIS EVE.

ES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  89  71  92 /  10  10  40  30
HUTCHINSON      64  90  70  93 /  10  10  40  30
NEWTON          64  88  70  91 /  10  10  40  30
ELDORADO        64  88  70  90 /  10  10  30  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  89  70  91 /  10  10  40  40
RUSSELL         65  90  70  95 /  20  20  30  20
GREAT BEND      66  90  69  94 /  20  20  30  20
SALINA          64  90  70  94 /  10  10  30  20
MCPHERSON       64  89  71  92 /  10  10  30  30
COFFEYVILLE     65  88  69  89 /  20  10  20  40
CHANUTE         64  87  68  89 /  20  10  10  30
IOLA            64  86  69  88 /  20  10  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    64  88  69  89 /  20  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



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