Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 040439
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1139 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES CONTINUES TO HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN CO AND SW KS AT THIS TIME.  MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER THE SE CORNER OF THIS SHORTWAVE HAS LED TO A SMALL
COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE OK PANHANDLE. EXPECT THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS TO STAY SW OF THE FORECAST...MAINLY PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST.

EXPECT THIS SHORTWAVE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT....WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUE MORNING.  THINK MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL STAY DRY AT LEAST UNTIL WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH KHUT AND KICT PROBABLY NOT SEEING ANY SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIP UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE ON TUE. CURRENT GRIDS AND ZONES LOOK
OKAY WHEN IT COMES TO TIMING.  POSSIBLY A TAD TOO FAST...BUT THE
SPIRIT OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FINE. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS...BUT LOOKS LIKE A RAINY TUES MORNING FOR MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS...AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TONIGHT-TUESDAY:
SMALL CHANCE FOR DIURNAL STORMS THROUGH SUNSET IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. AFTER THAT SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER. MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES TONIGHT
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. STORMS BECOME FAIRLY LIKELY AFTER
DAYBREAK AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. FAIR
AMOUNT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY ON BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY...BUT WOULD THINK THAT WESTERN HALF
WOULD REMAIN DRY IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION.

TUE NIGHT:
NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHAT MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON TO GENERATE
WIDESPD QFP TUE EVENING. INTIALLY SEEMED A BIT UNLIKELY  EARLY ON
IN WAKE OF DAYTIME PRECIPITATION. UPON FURTHER THOUGHT...PATTERN
WOULD FAVOR SOME OVERRUNNING OF RAIN COOLED AIR DURING THE NIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE CLIMATOLOGY...
OPTED TO KEEP POPS FAIRLY HIGH BUT NOT ATTEMPT TO GET MORE SPECIFIC
WITH TIMING.

WED-THU:
ANTICIPATE SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT START OF
THIS PERIOD OVER EASTERN HALF...WHICH WOULD EXIT EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS AROUND SUNSET. DRY WEATHER CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED ON THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN EASTERN
SECTIONS ON WED WITH CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT SHOULD REBOUND ALL
SECTIONS BY THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
CRITICAL SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
FORECAST. OPTED NOT TO MAKE CHANGES TO INTIALIZATION GRIDS GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP FRI DRY...BUT FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AREA FOR FRI NIGHT-SUN NIGHT WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST SMALL CHANCES. INITIALIZATION KEPT MON DRY..BUT GIVEN GFS
HAS EAST/WEST FRONT ACROSS FORECAST MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA...AND
ECMWF HAS IT ALONG OK/KS BORDER COULD SEE POPS ADDED THIS
PERIOD WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS.  EXPECT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE INITIALLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY TUE MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WRN KS.  SO WILL GO WITH VCTS BY AROUND 12Z/TUE
FOR THE KICT/KHUT/KRSL AND KSLN TAF SITES. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
TSRA CHANCES TO GO WITH PREVAILING TSRA AND MVFR VSBYS FOR KICT/KHUT
FOR THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON TUE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LATE TUE AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESS AS AMOUNT
OF RECOVERY FROM MORNING CONVECTION MAY KEEP AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
CHANCES AT A MINIMUM EXCEPT FOR KCNU.  COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR TUE EVENING. SO WILL
GO WITH A VCTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  84  70  90 /  30  60  60  20
HUTCHINSON      72  83  69  90 /  30  60  50  20
NEWTON          71  83  69  88 /  20  60  60  20
ELDORADO        72  83  70  87 /  20  60  60  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  84  70  91 /  30  60  50  20
RUSSELL         70  84  66  90 /  30  50  40  10
GREAT BEND      70  83  68  90 /  40  50  40  10
SALINA          72  85  70  89 /  20  60  60  20
MCPHERSON       71  83  69  89 /  30  60  60  20
COFFEYVILLE     73  85  72  90 /  20  60  60  40
CHANUTE         73  85  71  86 /  10  60  60  50
IOLA            72  85  71  84 /  10  60  60  50
PARSONS-KPPF    72  85  71  88 /  20  60  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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