Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 170822
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
322 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN THE 850-700MB LAYER IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING
GENERALLY EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS OF EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS.
THINKING MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL EXIT EAST OUT OF KANSAS BY MID-
MORNING. GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO...THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PEA-DIME SIZE HAIL. AN OUTFLOW-REINFORCED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DRAPE ITSELF SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEING REINFORCED ALSO BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THINKING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN VICINITY
OF THIS BOUNDARY...BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST KS DUE TO BETTER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM FURTHER
NORTHWEST TOWARD CENTRAL KS. STRENGTHENING WEAK- MODEST LOW-LEVEL
JET TONIGHT MAY ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP AND/OR
FESTER NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT...GENERALLY OVER
CENTRAL...EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST KS. ALL-IN-ALL...DESPITE STRONGER
500-300MB FLOW...WEAK 700MB FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRONGEST ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON-EVENING MAY APPROACH LOW-END SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN STOUT
INSTABILITY. CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH THE
BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO WASH OUT MAY ALLOW A FEW STRAY STORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG/EAST OF I-135...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ALONG WITH BOUNDARY WASHING OUT COMPLETELY WILL RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY ALL AREAS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. READINGS TODAY COULD SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S OVER
MAINLY SOUTHERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

STILL LOOKING LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND...AS REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM ODILE PROGRESS NORTHEAST...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. TIMING REMAINS THE PRIMARY
CHALLENGE...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF RUN COMING IN MUCH SLOWER THAN ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS...ALONG WITH THE LATEST GEM AND GFS. FOR NOW...WILL
AVOID MAJOR CHANGES...KEEPING BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IF THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS VERIFY PRECIPITATION
WOULD LINGER WELL INTO SUNDAY. ALL- IN-ALL...TROPICAL CONNECTION
AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND POOR LAPSE RATES
SHOULD TEMPER STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCES...ALTHOUGH IT WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHORT AMOUNTS OF TIME. RAIN-COOLED
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND...WITH CONTINUED COOL POST-
FRONTAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS. THESE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR...BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAWN AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
FOR NOW HAVE INSERTED VCTS IN KSLN AND KCNU WHERE CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT HIGHER...THOUGH BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING
NORTHWARD IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MVFR STRATUS CIGS LATER TONIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR CATEGORY. HOWEVER WILL LIMIT MENTION TO THE
HIGHER PROBABILITY MVFR CIGS FOR NOW.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    91  67  88  69 /  10  20  20  10
HUTCHINSON      91  66  88  69 /  20  20  10  10
NEWTON          88  66  87  69 /  20  30  20  10
ELDORADO        89  66  86  69 /  20  30  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  68  88  70 /  10  20  20  10
RUSSELL         89  65  88  69 /  20  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      90  64  89  68 /  10  20   0  10
SALINA          88  66  87  69 /  20  30  20  10
MCPHERSON       89  66  87  69 /  20  30  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     88  67  86  67 /  30  40  30  10
CHANUTE         86  66  83  67 /  30  40  30  10
IOLA            85  66  82  66 /  30  40  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    87  66  85  67 /  30  40  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




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