Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 021959
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
259 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM FOR TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...THUS PROVIDING A HEALTHY CAP ALOFT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...HOWEVER
THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
WHERE SOME ELEVATED ACTIVITY COULD TRY AND DEVELOP OVER THE FLINT
HILLS. OTHERWISE A WARM AND BREEZY DAY WILL BE ON TAP FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGESTING HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO POSSIBLE LOW 90S. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN KANSAS/SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AND COULD AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
IF A STRONG ENOUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SURGES SOUTHWARD.

WE ARE SEEING A DIFFERENCE IN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS ON
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
CONFIDENT THE WARMER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE OVER
SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS PERIOD...WITH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE TUG-A-WAR
ZONE ON DAYTIME HIGHS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. NIGHT TIME ELEVATED
CONVECTION LOOKS FAVORABLE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...WITH
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINING NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THE SURFACE FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON
SATURDAY WITH WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
PREVAILING...HOWEVER LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
FRONT BACK SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHERE IT COULD STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION. WARM ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND COOLER NEAR NORMAL READINGS
NORTH OF THE STALLED OUT FRONT EXPECTED.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...WITH
SOME STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS
MOST LIKELY AT KRSL/KSLN/KHUT...WITH CHANCES LOWER AT KICT/KCNU.
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY MID MORNING WED AS WINDS/MIXING
INCREASES. SOME POTETIAL FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...PRIMARILY AT
KRSL/KSLN...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  88  68  90 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      67  89  69  89 /  10  10  20  30
NEWTON          66  88  67  89 /  10  10  20  30
ELDORADO        67  87  69  89 /  20  20  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  88  68  90 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         66  89  68  88 /  10  10  40  30
GREAT BEND      66  92  68  89 /  10  10  30  30
SALINA          68  88  69  88 /  10  10  40  30
MCPHERSON       66  89  68  88 /  10  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     65  86  67  88 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         65  85  67  87 /  10  20  10  10
IOLA            65  85  67  87 /  10  20  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    66  86  67  88 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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