Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 311943
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ALL IS QUIET ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD THIS AFTERNOON AS BROAD BUT WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE ~10F BELOW NORMAL WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

TONIGHT:
A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG STILL EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS TOWARD DAY
BREAK WHERE DAMP GROUNDS & LIGHT WIND WOULD FAVOR SUCH DEVELOPMENT. (AS
WAS THE CASE EARLY THIS MORNING.) THE POSSIBLE INHIBITOR IS THAT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS (8,000-10,000FT ALTOCU) THAT`LL SPREAD SE CENTRAL KS THIS
EVENING THEN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KS AROUND MID-NIGHT. FOR CONSISTENCY
SAKE HAVE KEPT "PATCHY FOG" APPLIED TO SOUTHEAST KS.

FRI;
SHOULD IT DEVELOP THE PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS WILL DISSIPATE BY
10 AM. WARMER WEATHER THEN RETURNS AS A WEAK NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES SE ACROSS CENTRAL KS. ANY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR FROM NEBRASKA TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON.

THIS WEEKEND:
NICE WEATHER CONTINUES AS A LARGE & FAIRLY STRONG MID-UPPER DECK HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS SLOWLY SE FROM THE NORTHERN & CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS
MOST OF THE GREAT PLAINS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM 85-90F ARE STILL
ANTICOPATED SAT & SUN AFTERNOONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CENTRAL & SOUTH
CENTRAL KS TUE NIGHT AS A BROAD POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL TROF MOVES
SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXPERIENCE
CYCLOGENESIS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WED EVENING. WITH THE
SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROF EXTENDING SW ACROSS KS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN A NW-SE MANNER WED NIGHT & THU AS THE SE-MOVING
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWEEPS A COLD FRONT SE ACROSS KS. THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE QUITE STRONG WITH BOTH SMALL HAIL & 40-50 MPH GUSTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

PATCHY RADIATIONAL GROUND FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF WITH ANY FOG RATHER SHALLOW IN NATURE.
HOWEVER A PERIOD OF IFR AND MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AROUND DAWN.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF
THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD WITH DIURNAL CU BASES ABOVE 3000 FT.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    63  88  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      63  89  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          62  88  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        62  86  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  87  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         64  90  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      62  91  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          64  90  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       63  89  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     62  88  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         62  86  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            62  86  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    62  87  65  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ES






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