Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 210537
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1137 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH DIURNAL COOLING
SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL BE
GENERALLY WEST OF HUTCHINSON-SALINA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
SHOULD BE STRONGEST...ALTHOUGH PATCHY INTERMITTENT DENSE FOG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT DUE TO
AREAS OF STRATUS BUILD-DOWN. DEEPER MOISTURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR AREAS OF DRIZZLE BY SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...GENERALLY EAST OF HUTCHINSON-
SALINA. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCES INCREASING OVER FAR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KS MONDAY...AS ZONE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS MATERIALIZES AND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST. MOSTLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH FAR SOUTHEAST KS COULD PICK UP
AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH LATE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS...MONDAY HIGHS SHOULD WARM TO AT LEAST THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S. A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW
A STRONG COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
LOW 40S ARE EXPECTED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

GFS IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF WITH
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS MID-WEEK TROUGH...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
COLDER WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES THAN ECMWF. ENSEMBLES SUPPORT BOTH
SOLUTIONS...SO FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. RAPID WARM-UP
INTO THE 40S AND 50S EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
THEREAFTER...ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...RESULTING IN BLUSTERY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT DUE TO MEAGER FORCING AND MOISTURE. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS REMAIN LOW CEILINGS AND FOG POTENTIAL.

MVFR CIGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-135. SOUTH
WINDS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SLOWLY INCREASE WHICH WILL KEE LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIFR CEILINGS
QUICKLY EXPANDING NORTH OVER WESTERN OK. FEEL THAT AS THIS AREA OF
LOWER CIGS EXPANDS EAST...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE IFR CIGS BY 09Z.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LOCATIONS WEST OF I-135 COULD SEE SOME
LIFR CEILINGS. WITH SURFACE WINDS STAYING IN THE 08-11KT
RANGE...WOULD BE MUCH MORE CONFIDENT IN DENSE FOG IF WE WERE
ADVECTING RICH DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS SOUTH
OF THE AREA ONLY LOOK A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT`S CURRENTLY IN
PLACE. SO CURRENT THINKING IS THAT 2-4SM BR AND IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL
BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MOST OF SUN AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNCHANGED.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  46  41  52 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      35  46  40  51 /  10  10  20  10
NEWTON          35  45  41  51 /  10  10  20  20
ELDORADO        35  46  41  51 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   37  47  42  51 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELL         32  46  36  51 /   0   0  20  10
GREAT BEND      32  46  36  51 /  10  10  20  10
SALINA          33  46  39  52 /  10  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       34  45  39  51 /  10  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     36  49  43  53 /  10  10  10  40
CHANUTE         33  47  42  52 /  10  10  20  40
IOLA            33  47  42  51 /  10  10  20  40
PARSONS-KPPF    35  48  42  52 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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