Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 221737
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1237 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

A large upper trough/low will continue to settle into the
Southwestern states into this weekend. Confidence remains high in
unseasonably warm air persisting through at least Saturday, with
diurnally-gusty southerly winds across the forecast area. In
addition, the main focus area for showers/thunderstorms will be near
the lee trough over western Kansas, and along a slow, southward
moving cold front in Nebraska.

As the large upper trough advances slowly east into the Rockies
Sunday into Sunday night, the cold front is progged to drop into
northwestern Kansas. Low-level convergence along the front, upper-
level divergence, and an anomalously high precipitable water axis,
should result in chances of showers/thunderstorms expanding further
east into central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

The main portion of the Rockies upper low is progged to eject
northeast into the Northern Plains Monday into Tuesday, as
additional shortwave energy dives into the Southwest. This will
allow the cold front to continue its slow southward movement through
the forecast area Monday through Tuesday night. Given respectable
upper-level support, frontal convergence, and high moisture, periods
of showers/thunderstorms appear likely as the front slices through
the region. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible.
Showers/thunderstorms may linger into Wednesday, especially in the
south. Otherwise, noticeably cooler air will infiltrate the forecast
area in the wake of the front with temperatures falling back to
seasonal climatological averages for Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period.
Gusty winds are expected again this afternoon, which will likely
linger well into the night. Diurnal cumulus likely with deeper
moisture/higher surface dew points. Outside chance of some
elevated showers or thunderstorms around daybreak in the vicinity
of KICT/KHUT, but low probability precludes mentioning vcsh at
this time. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    93  71  91  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      95  71  90  68 /   0   0  10   0
Newton          93  71  90  68 /   0   0  10   0
ElDorado        92  71  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   92  71  91  68 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         97  72  89  69 /   0  10  20  20
Great Bend      95  71  89  68 /   0   0  10  10
Salina          96  73  92  70 /   0   0  10  10
McPherson       95  71  90  68 /   0   0  10   0
Coffeyville     90  70  91  68 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         89  70  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            89  69  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    89  70  90  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...PJH



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