Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 221737
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1237 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY ON TAP FOR KANSAS TODAY WITH UPPER 90S AND
LOW 100S...WITH HEAT INDICES LOOKING TO STAY JUST BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS HOWEVER IF DEWPOINTS DON`T MIX OUT LIKE EXPECTED
THEN HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD REACH 105 DEGREES. MEANWHILE THE MOST
LIKELY REGION FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY WILL BE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPSLOPE REGIME OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS...WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS ALONG THE FRONT. THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD
PUSH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY NORTHEAST...THUS KEEPING THE BULK OF THE
STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL MIGRATE FURTHER NORTH FOR SATURDAY WITH HOT AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. WE COULD
SEE A FEW STORMS TRY AND DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATER IN THE
DAY WITH RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT IT WOULD BE MORE
ISOLATED...BETTER CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT-TIME HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE HEAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR KANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER
SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT COULD ARRIVE BY MID-WEEK AS LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WOULD PUSH SOME COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO
KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED HIT-OR-MISS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL KS THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON OR SO. INCLUDED VCTS AT SLN-HUT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING OVER WESTERN...CENTRAL...NORTHERN
KS...IN VICINITY OF A NORTHWARD-RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RSL
HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY THIS ACTIVITY...SO
INCLUDED VCTS THERE THIS EVENING.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT   100  75 100  74 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON     100  74 100  73 /  20  10  10  10
NEWTON          99  74  99  73 /  30  10  10  10
ELDORADO        99  74 100  74 /  20   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD  100  75 100  74 /  10   0  10   0
RUSSELL         99  71  98  72 /  20  20  10  20
GREAT BEND      99  72  99  72 /  20  20  10  20
SALINA         101  73  99  74 /  30  20  10  10
MCPHERSON      100  74  99  73 /  30  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     99  74  99  74 /  10   0  10   0
CHANUTE         99  73  99  73 /  10   0  10   0
IOLA            98  73  99  73 /  10   0  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    99  74  99  73 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




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