Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 241749
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1149 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS DAY A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND TIGHTEN UP THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONSIDERABLY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN STRONG SOUTH WINDS LIKELY APPROACHING OR SURPASSING WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO USHER
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION.

MEANWHILE...CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY
HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST. THIS UPPER WAVE
WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AND CARVE OUT A WELL AMPLIFIED TROUGH AXIS COME FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...WITH A NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WE ARE STILL SEEING DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF
MODELS WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT THE ECMWF
MODEL SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THAT GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES
TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF MODEL. AS A RESULT WE WILL INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A WINTER MIX EARLY
ON CHANGING TO ALL SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

THE CHANCES FOR SNOW ARE INCREASING A BIT FOR SATURDAY WITH SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...AS ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO BE THE
MODEL OF CHOICE FOR GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
THAT MUCH COLDER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL VISIT KANSAS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A WEATHER PATTERN
CONDUCIVE OF DISLODGING A MASSIVE CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR. THE ARCTIC
AIR LOOKS TO INVADE KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AND THE
ARCTIC OCCUPATION WILL ONLY GET FURTHER ENTRENCHED FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-RSL-CNU...MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY NEAR THE I-135
CORRIDOR WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FINALLY EXITING CNU AROUND 02Z.
OTHERWISE...STRENGTHENING WESTERN HIGH PLAINS LOW PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING PREDOMINANT TONIGHT. GIVEN
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF 45-55
KTS AROUND 1000-1500 FT AGL...INSERTED LLWS FOR ICT-SLN-HUT FROM
ABOUT 10-16Z. DID NOT INCLUDE RSL-CNU SINCE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG THERE. OTHERWISE...VERY STRONG/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING THURSDAY.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    41  26  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      41  26  53  31 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          38  25  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        41  26  54  35 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   42  26  55  36 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         41  24  51  26 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      41  25  52  27 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          40  25  51  29 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       39  26  52  30 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     42  25  55  39 /  60   0   0   0
CHANUTE         39  25  53  39 /  60   0   0   0
IOLA            38  25  52  38 /  60   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    41  25  55  39 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


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