Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 202355
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
655 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

WITH VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW SLOWLY BECOMING EAST/SOUTHEAST SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S WOULD SLOWLY MIGRATE FROM OK ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS STARTING ~4AM. NEARLY ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS (GFS IS THE
EXCEPTION) DEPICT STRONG FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL &
PARTS OF CENTRAL KS TO AS FAR NORTH AS KRSL EARLY TUE MORNING. FOR NOW
HAVE APPLIED "PATCHY" DESCRIPTOR TO THESE AREAS FROM ~4AM-9AM BUT WILL
WATCH CLOSELY. (ESPECIALLY AFTER WHAT TRANSPIRED EARLY THIS MORNING.)

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TONIGHT-TUE:
MAIN FOCUS IS TIMING/AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKELY...BUT GIVEN GRADIENT OF 850MB MOISTURE
AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION...WOULD NOT DISCOUNT A FEW SPRINKLES/
SPOTTY SHOWERS. ALSO GOOD CHANCE OF 3-5SM VISIBILITY IN FOG BUT
DENSE FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY. AFTER MORNING CLOUDS...MILD DAY IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WED-THU:
MOISTURE INCREASES WED AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE...SETTING STAGE
FOR MAINLY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR WEST SECTIONS ON WED DURING DAY...ALL OF
THE AREA WED NIGHT AND THEN EXITING SOUTHEAST KS ON THU DURING THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL US
FRI-SAT...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN AND TROUGH MOVING INTO
SUN/MON. ONCE AGAIN...ECMWF/GFS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
IN THE PATTERN TRANSITION ON SUN/MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD AHEAD OF FRONT. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN
GFS/ECMWF ON FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TEMPERATURES COULD GO EITHER WAY.
IF WARMER TEMPERATURES VERIFY PER ECMWF...MAXES COULD MAKE THE
LOWER 80S ON MON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS.
HOWEVER COOLER SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING MAXES ONLY IN THE UPPER
50S/NEAR 60. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THERE ARE NO CONCERNS UNTIL ~08Z WHEN THE ONSET OF E/SE WINDS WOULD
ENABLE MUCH HIGHER DWPTS TO SLOWLY MIGRATE FROM OK ACROSS SC KS
PRIMARILY ALONG & W OF I-35/I-135. NEARLY ALL SOUNDINGS (THE EXCEPTION
IS GFS) DEPICT FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBYS AT KICT & KHUT FROM
08Z-15Z WITH THE GREATEST VSBY RESTRICTIONS OCCURRING FROM 11Z-14Z. THE
FOG MAY SPREAD AS FAR N AS KSLN & KRSL ~11Z WHERE/WHEN 3-5SM VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE FOG WOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z AROUND WHICH TIME ~3,500FT
CIGS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST AREAS (ESPECIALLY SC & SE KS).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  75  58  77 /   0  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      49  74  57  77 /   0  10  10  20
NEWTON          50  73  57  76 /   0  10   0  10
ELDORADO        50  74  56  77 /   0  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  74  58  77 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELL         48  73  58  77 /   0  10   0  40
GREAT BEND      48  73  58  77 /   0  10   0  30
SALINA          47  73  57  77 /   0   0   0  20
MCPHERSON       49  73  57  77 /   0  10   0  20
COFFEYVILLE     50  73  54  72 /  10  10   0  10
CHANUTE         48  71  52  69 /   0  10   0  10
IOLA            48  70  51  68 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    49  72  53  71 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





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