Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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600
FXUS63 KICT 191207 CCA
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
304 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SHORT/LONG TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 259 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Forecast highlights next 7-10 days: Well above normal
temperatures through Thu, with a cool down by Fri.
Showers/thunderstorms likely this evening into early Mon.
Precipitation chances increase again Thu-Fri, and possibly again
Sat night-Sun.

Fog/low clouds...Moist advection from the south will lead to areas
of fog and low clouds this morning, as a deep upper trough
approaches from the west. Will monitor trends for a possible dense
fog advisory.

Precipitation...Deep moisture transport and large scale ascent
associated with the approaching trough will support increasing
chances for showers/thunderstorms from the southwest this evening,
spreading northeast overnight. Not expecting severe storms given
marginal instability, although brief pockets of heavy rain and gusty
winds are possible, especially over south-central and southeast
Kansas. Most activity will exit eastern Kansas Mon morning.
Thereafter, dry weather will persist through Wed night, with
precipitation chances increasing again late Thu through early Fri,
as an energetic storm system approaches from the west. Despite
subtle differences regarding track and strength, models are in
overall fairly good agreement surrounding this system. That said, it
appears the greatest precipitation potential will remain across
generally the northern half of Kansas, and points on northward,
where the potential for plowable snowfall is increasing, especially
across Nebraska/Iowa. Model consensus suggests a third system could
spread additional precipitation across the region sometime Sat night
through Mon, however uncertainty remains very high this far out.

Temperatures...More clouds than sun today will temper highs a bit,
although still expecting 60s to low 70s (~15-20 degrees above
normal). The warmest days of the week will likely be Tue and Wed
with highs in the mid- upper 70s (~25 degrees above normal), as
upper ridging increases from the west, and dry southwest low-level
flow persists. Could be flirting with records across the area both
days. Thursday will be the last warm day, as a cold front blasts
south across the region, cooling high temperatures closer to
seasonable values into the 40s- 50s Fri through the weekend, with
overnight lows in the 20s-30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1053 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Still expecting low clouds and light fog to develop over the area
late tonight and Sunday morning, as low level moisture streams
northward into the region. The lower cigs will gradually rise
during the afternoon hours on Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

High to very high grassland fire danger will persist the next
several days across the area, due to above normal temperatures and
periodic breezy winds. Areas of showers/thunderstorms will
increase from the southwest this evening, exiting eastern Kansas
Mon morning. Central Kansas will see the highest grassland fire
danger (very high) today and Mon, with very high fire danger
possible eastern Kansas Wed. A cool down will arrive by Friday,
with strong/gusty northwest winds and high to very high fire
danger. Overall though, conditions the next 7 days shouldn`t
support widespread extreme/critical fire danger (i.e. red flag
conditions).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    64  56  73  41 /  10  60  20   0
Hutchinson      63  54  72  39 /  10  50  10   0
Newton          64  55  70  41 /  10  50  20   0
ElDorado        66  56  71  43 /  10  60  20   0
Winfield-KWLD   66  57  72  43 /  20  70  20   0
Russell         69  51  70  37 /  10  40  10   0
Great Bend      68  51  70  36 /  10  40  10   0
Salina          67  55  73  39 /  10  40  10   0
McPherson       63  55  72  38 /  10  50  20   0
Coffeyville     69  59  71  45 /  10  70  50  10
Chanute         68  58  71  44 /  10  70  50  10
Iola            68  58  71  44 /  10  70  50  10
Parsons-KPPF    69  59  70  45 /  10  70  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...ADK



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