Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 062048
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
348 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TONIGHT:
FRONT HALFWAY THROUGH FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...AND EXPECTED
TO REACH SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
FILL IN/EXPAND WITH VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF FRONT.
MAIN THREATS WILL BE WET MICROBURSTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM
THE TORRENTIAL/TROPICAL RAINFALL RATES. ANTICIPATE WIND THREAT
WILL BE HIGHLY ISOLATED GIVEN UNFAVORABLE 700MB FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN VERY MOIST COLUMN.

TUE-THU:
LATEST MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF POSITIONS OF FRONT THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD...WITH GFS ONCE AGAIN STRONGEST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE. OPTED FOR A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WHICH WAS CLOSE TO
THE NAM EARLY ON...BUT NAM SEEMS A BIT SLOW LATER IN THIS PERIOD.
FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ON
SECOND HALF OF FLOOD WATCH...EXCEPT IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
CORNER. HOWEVER GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE WATCH STATUS QUO.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED OVER MOST OF AREA DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH SOME CLEARING IN FAR
NORTHWEST SECTIONS...TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN REST OF THE AREA ON TUE-WED. CHANCES OF RAIN BY THU
WILL START TO SHIFT BACK NORTH AS BOUNDARY RETREATS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES. FRONT MAY FLIRT WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS BY
SUN-MON...BUT GIVEN COMBO OF CAPPING AND UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES MAYBE A BIT CONSERVATIVE
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE LAYER DRIES OUT -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

STRONG COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL KS AND
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST KS INTO THE OK PANHANDLE.
SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALONG THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AND MORE INTENSE AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH KSLN IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND KICT AFTER 21Z. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
PRODUCE VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET
MICROBURSTS. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END OVER CENTRAL KS(KRSL-
KSLN) AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...IT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS.

LAWSON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  72  62  75 / 100  40  50  30
HUTCHINSON      63  72  60  77 / 100  30  30  20
NEWTON          63  73  61  74 / 100  40  50  30
ELDORADO        64  73  61  73 /  90  50  70  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  74  63  74 /  90  60  70  30
RUSSELL         62  77  58  80 /  50  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      62  76  58  79 /  50  10  10  10
SALINA          63  75  60  77 /  70  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       63  74  60  77 /  90  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     69  73  66  74 /  80  80  90  60
CHANUTE         66  73  64  73 /  90  80  90  60
IOLA            65  73  64  73 /  90  70  90  60
PARSONS-KPPF    68  73  65  74 /  80  80  90  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ069>072-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.