Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 220317
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
917 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPDATED DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXTENDING IT TO INCLUDE SALINE COUNTY
AND EXTENDED ITS TIME THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DO NOT SEE ANY
MAJOR AIRMASS CHANGE...AND OBSERVATIONS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS HAVE
BOUNCED AROUND RETURNING TO 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. FEEL THAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MANY
LOCATIONS MAY BOUNCE AROUND FROM 1/4 MILE OR LESS TO 2 MILES...BUT
FEEL THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME THE VISIBILITY WILL RESIDE AROUND
1/4 TO 1/2 MILE WARRANTING THE EXTENSION.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

TONIGHT:
BASED ON COMBO RAP/WRF BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
OBSERVATIONS...HAVE EXTENDED ADVISORY THROUGH 0600 UTC. KEY TO
FORECAST WILL BE VEERING IN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WHICH SHOULD
ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT INTO THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD ERODE/DISSIPATE FOG AS IT SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. AREAS WEST/SOUTHWEST OF ICT SHOULD CLEAR FIRST...BUT MODELS
SUGGEST SWATH ALONG SPINE OF FLINT HILLS MAY PERSIST PAST 0600
UTC. EVENING CREW SHOULD BE ABLE TO ADJUST ADVISORY BY MID EVENING
TO CANCEL/EXPAND AREAS. SOME POSSIBILITY THAT FOG COULD EXPAND
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS IN PERSISTENT SATURATED UPSLOPE
FLOW...AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT SIGNIFICANTLY VEER
THERE UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. VERY MODEST CAPE DEVELOPS LATE
TONIGHT ALONG OK BORDER...AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN FORECAST THERE.

SAT-SUN:
WITH INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT WILL KEEP FAIRLY HIGH PROBABILITY
OF DRIZZLE/RAIN SHOWER MAINLY EAST OF I-35 ON SAT. EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS WILL SUPPRESS DIURNAL RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME
CLEARING POSSIBLE IN EXTREME NORTHWEST SECTIONS ON SAT. FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON SUN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY
FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GIVEN EXTENSIVE CLOUDS.

SUN NIGHT-MON:
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END SUN NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KS...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLEARING SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW MAY SPREAD EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS BACK SOUTHWEST...PROBABLY
COVERING THE NE HALF OF THE AREA. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD. WHILE GFS/ECMWF
ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR...CHALLENGES OF RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AND
DOWNSLOPE FLOW FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE PERIOD...COULD MAKE
TEMPERATURES A CHALLENGE. APPEARS THAT COOLER AIR WOULD OVERSPREAD
THE AREA ON WED...WITH POSSIBLE FALLING TEMPERATURES WED
AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRI...AND COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
ARE EVEN WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOG AND DRIZZLE AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO IFR/MVFR. HOWEVER...THIS
IMPROVEMENT COULD BE SQUASHED AS LOW CLOUDS AND COOLING PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED. EXPECT KRSL/KSLN TO BE IFR/LIFR
TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS AND IMPROVING TO MVFR AND VFR BY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. KICT/KHUT LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. KCNU CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT WITH PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    38  58  50  57 /  20  30  30  40
HUTCHINSON      35  58  46  54 /  10  20  20  30
NEWTON          37  57  49  57 /  20  20  30  40
ELDORADO        40  58  50  58 /  30  40  40  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   43  59  50  59 /  40  40  30  40
RUSSELL         32  56  41  50 /   0  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      33  56  43  50 /   0  10  10  20
SALINA          34  57  47  53 /  10  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       35  58  47  54 /  10  20  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     48  58  51  59 /  50  60  60  60
CHANUTE         47  58  51  57 /  50  50  50  60
IOLA            46  58  50  57 /  50  50  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    48  58  51  58 /  50  50  60  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SATURDAY FOR KSZ049>053-
067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$



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