Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 200848
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
348 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SOUTH 10-15 MPH WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT RICH MOISTURE ACROSS
THE KS NEIGHBORHOOD DURING THE NIGHT WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES ~80F
ACROSS KICT COUNTRY. AS EXPECTED...A WEAK FRONT RANGE SURFACE TROF HAS
FORCED A WARM FRONT DUE NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL NEBRASKA THUS KEEPING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA & WESTERN IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TODAY:
THE FIRST ISSUE IS HEAT. A COMPACT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED EAST
ACROSS LOWER MI YESTERDAY IS ENABLING A LARGE & STRONG MID- UPPER HIGH
COVERING THE GULF COAST REGION TO RETROGRADE/SPREAD SLOWLY W TOWARD THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WOULD ENABLE DEEP VEERING S-SW FLOW TO CONTINUE
ADVECTING HOT AIR NE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS. WITH RICH MOIST LOWER
AIR MASS COVERING EASTERN KS HEAT INDICES NEAR 105F ARE LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS. HAVE CHECKED SWING ON HEAT ADVISORY ISSUANCE AS DURATION
IS AN ISSUE. A 700-MB SHORTWAVE (ALBEIT WEAK) IS SCOOTING NE ACROSS OK
TOWARD SE KS WHERE A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO `SPARK` A COUPLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE AFORE-MENTIONED
CONTINUED MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD "PUT A LID" ON ANY CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL OVER CENTRAL KS.

TONIGHT-THU:
A SHARPER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ORIENTED IN A N-S MANNER FROM EASTERN MT
TO NORTHEAST NM SHOULD BEGIN ITS TRIP E TOWARD THE WESTERN PLAINS BUT
WITH THE LARGE MID-UPPER HIGH COVERING THE GULF COAST NEIGHBORHOOD THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE FORCED TO TAKE A SLOW NE ROUTE ACROSS NEBRASKA WHERE
IT SHOULD WEAKEN & WITH SUCH A WARM MID-LEVEL AIRMASS THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR RUSSELL & LINCOLN COUNTIES ARE VIRTUALLY NIL. THU WILL BE A
REPEAT OF TODAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 100F & HEAT INDICES FROM 100-104.

FRI & FRI NIGHT:
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO CHANGE AS A MID-UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER THE OR/ID BORDER WILL EJECT THE 1ST OF A COUPLE NEGATIVELY-TILTED
SHORTWAVES NE ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE 1ST SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY SE ACROSS WESTERN KS INTO A RICH MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA & NORTHWEST KS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD SLOWLY E ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA & TOWARD CENTRAL
KS LATE FRI NIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR
OVER NEBRASKA & WESTERN KS WHERE NO DOUBT CLOSER TO THE FRONT & ALIGNED
WITH THE 30-40KTS 6K BULK SHEAR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS WEEKEND:
ONE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THE FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE ON SAT BUT THEN REDEVELOP LATE FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO
THE SE CO/SW KS BORDER SAT NIGHT. WITH RICH LOWER-DECK MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO MIGRATE NE ACROSS KS THUNDERSTORMS WOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
FROM SAT NIGHT THRU THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK. ALTHOUGH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON & NIGHT THE MOST VOLATILE PERIOD
MAY BE LATE MON AFTERNOON & NIGHT WHEN INSTABILITIES & DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
(BOTH SPEED & DIRECTIONAL) INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN & CENTRAL THIRDS OF
KS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
RIDGE ALOFT WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT...REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE LEE SIDE TROF ON WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KED


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    99  76  99  77 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      98  76  99  77 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          98  75  98  77 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        99  76  99  77 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   99  75  99  78 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         97  73  98  74 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      96  75  98  75 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA         100  76  99  75 /  10   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       98  76  99  76 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE    100  74 100  76 /  20  20  10  10
CHANUTE         99  74  99  76 /  20  20  10  10
IOLA            99  74  98  75 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF   100  74  99  76 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





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