Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 010012
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
712 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

NEXT PV ANOMALY OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS APPROACHING WAVE WILL HELP INDUCE A 40
KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW-MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS
TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS CONVECTION MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE WHILE SHIFTING INTO THE FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN KS BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE DAY.

ANOTHER UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING THE
UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE STRONGER
FROM PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. GIVEN DECENT INSOLATION CAN DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE NEAR A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL KS BY MID-LATE PM WHERE BEST
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED. ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG DRYLINE IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE MATERIALIZING. SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO SUPPORTS
SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE COLD FRONTAL
TIMING AND ANY CLEARING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
MAY INITIATE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS THURSDAY BEFORE FORMING INTO A
SQUALL LINE AND MOVING EAST INTO MISSOURI BY EVENING.

COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH EVEN COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND A
SECONDARY...STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE KANSAS REGION IN A DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO MODIFY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SCATTERED STORMS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING AT KSLN/KHUT...WITH
THREAT WANING AT KRSL WITH STORMS JUST TO THE EAST.  KICT A TOUGH
CALL...BUT LIKELY ON FRINGE OF THREAT THIS EVENING. TOUGH CALL ON
SURFACE PATTERN ON WED...WITH MULTIPLE MODEL IDEAS ON HOW STORMS
WILL DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE BEST CHANCE IS FOR LINGERING
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF KCNU IN THE AFTERNOON...
WITH STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF KSLN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. OTHER LOCATIONS POSSIBLE...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH
GIVEN QUESTIONS ABOUT DRYLINE/FRONT LOCATION. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  87  64  73 /  40  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      65  86  61  71 /  50  30  50  40
NEWTON          66  84  62  72 /  50  40  50  40
ELDORADO        66  86  63  74 /  50  50  60  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  86  65  75 /  40  50  50  30
RUSSELL         60  80  55  69 /  30  30  60  30
GREAT BEND      61  80  56  69 /  60  30  50  30
SALINA          64  84  60  70 /  70  50  60  40
MCPHERSON       65  84  61  71 /  60  40  50  40
COFFEYVILLE     66  86  67  77 /  40  50  60  70
CHANUTE         65  85  66  76 /  50  60  60  70
IOLA            65  85  66  75 /  50  60  60  60
PARSONS-KPPF    66  86  66  77 /  40  50  60  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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