Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 231736
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Forecast highlights: excessive heat today and possibly Sunday, a
return to more seasonable temperatures next week, periodic
thunderstorm chances through next week beginning this evening.

Cannot rule out a few stray showers/thunderstorms early this
morning generally along/north of a line extending from Great Bend
to McPherson to Cottonwood Falls. However, brunt of activity
should remain north of I-70.

Otherwise, one more day of intense heat expected. Dewpoints
should dry out a few degrees compared to yesterday and low-level
thickness values decrease a bit, so temperatures and heat indices
may not be quite as high as yesterday, but still expecting
widespread 105+ heat indices. A slight cool down expected for
Sunday as the ridge begins to flatten and a cold front approaches
from the north. May need to continue heat headlines over mainly
southern/southeast KS with expected heat indices around 105
degrees. Readings cool down even more for Monday into the low-mid
90s given influence of Canadian high pressure impinging from the
north and potential for increased clouds.

Thunderstorm-wise, anticipating isolated to widely scattered
storms to fire across northwest KS this afternoon evening along
the lee trough/approaching cold front, with this activity possibly
encroaching upon locations generally northwest of Great Bend to
Salina this evening/overnight. Main threats will be strong wind
gusts. Thinking somewhat higher probabilities for thunderstorms
will be Sunday afternoon-night mainly northwest of the KS
Turnpike, as frontal forcing increases in response to Canadian
high pressure approaching from the northwest. Weak flow aloft
should preclude widespread severe storms, although a few
strong/severe storms are possible given the unstable airmass. The
front should wash out/dissipate by Monday, but any residual
frontal and/or convective outflow convergence zones could serve as
a focus for a few hit-or-miss storms Monday afternoon-night
areawide.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Medium range model consensus and associated ensembles support the
upper ridge continuing to flatten and retrograde to the western
CONUS next week. This should allow the jet stream and associated
various wobbly frontal zones to shift further south closer to the
Kansas region, supporting periodic thunderstorm chances through
the week. Given the increased flow aloft amidst a likely unstable
airmass, at least a few bouts of strong/severe storms and locally
heavy rain are probable across the region. Additionally, decreased
atmospheric thickness and the potential for cloud cover should
knock temperatures down closer to seasonal averages in the low-mid
90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Persistent lee trough will allow for southerly winds to gust to
20-24 knots at times this afternoon before diminishing early this
evening. A developing southwesterly low-level jet may provide
marginal low-level wind shear across portions of central/south-
central Kansas late tonight/early Sunday morning.

A weak front will drop south into northwestern Kansas late
tonight, then pushing into central Kansas Sunday morning. Slight
chance of storms developing near the front this evening in
northwest Kansas. Will include a VCTS at RSL this eve, otherwise,
the front will have a better chance of diurnal storm development
Sunday afternoon beyond this TAF valid period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT   105  76 100  75 /   0   0  20  30
Hutchinson     105  76  99  73 /  10  10  20  40
Newton         103  76  98  74 /  10  10  20  40
ElDorado       101  76  98  75 /   0   0  20  30
Winfield-KWLD  102  76 100  76 /   0   0  10  20
Russell        104  73  96  70 /  10  20  30  40
Great Bend     104  74  98  71 /  10  10  30  40
Salina         103  77  99  74 /  10  10  30  40
McPherson      104  76  98  73 /  10  10  20  40
Coffeyville    100  76  99  75 /   0   0  10  20
Chanute         98  75  98  75 /   0   0  10  30
Iola            98  75  97  74 /   0   0  10  30
Parsons-KPPF    99  76  98  75 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ049-051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-
033-047-048-050.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...JMC



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