Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 112051
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
251 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 234 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Headline:
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the entire CWA until 7PM
CST this evening (see Fire Weather discussion below).

A rapidly moving mid/upper level shortwave clipper is making its
way through the Middle Mississippi Valley this afternoon and
evening. A weak surface trough that is draped across the eastern
Plains is being pushed through by the clipper, tightening the
northwest oriented gradient at the surface this afternoon. The
tightened gradient, steep lapse rates, and a good amount of
mixing are allowing for elevated wind speeds across much of the
Plains. Sustained speeds in excess of 30mph with gusts near 40mph
are possible.

As the system jets eastward away from the CWA late Monday evening
and into Tuesday morning, wind speeds will come back down overnight
Monday night. Additionally, a wedge of slightly cooler air in the
wake of the shortwave will keep highs on Tuesday roughly 10 degrees
cooler than Monday, though the overall synoptic pattern of
northwesterly flow with a mid/upper ridge in the west and trough in
the eastern CONUS will continue. This will allow for another
gradual warmup on Wednesday with highs once again nearing the 60
degree mark.

Indications are that another clipper will likely skirt across the
northeastern corner of Kansas during the day on Wednesday, which
would once again elevate wind speeds with possible gusts near
30mph. Like with the previous system, very low atmospheric
moisture content and dew points dipping into the mid 20s during
the afternoon could create very high fire danger on Wednesday.
Otherwise, increased cloud cover and cooler temperatures on
Thursday in the shortwave`s wake are the only highlights of an
otherwise quiet forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 234 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

The high pressure regime that has been dominating the
western CONUS will finally give way on Thursday into Friday, as
an elongated upper trough backs across the Central Plains. This
will quickly move east and will be followed by yet another wave
that is forecast to usher a surface low just to the northeast of
the area. It looks as if the timing and location of this second
shortwave this weekend will not be conducive to any precip for the
area, as moisture will remain scarce. Therefore, the current
consensus is that the dry pattern we have been experiencing for
some time now will continue for central, south central, and
southeast Kansas at least through early next week.

Due to frequent inquiries about any precip chances at all within the
foreseeable future for the area, took a quick glance beyond the
forecast period into the extended period. Early indications from
both long range models and CPC are that that the dry weather is
likely to continue for the better part of what remains of 2017.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 224 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period.
Main concern is very gusty winds this afternoon. Winds should
gradually diminish this evening initially with less mixing and
then later as pressure gradient relaxes. -Howerton


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all CWA counties until 7PM
this evening. Northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph are possible with
gusts as strong as 45mph. When combined with cured grasses and low
relative humidity values (around 20 percent), these strong winds
will create an extreme grassland fire danger across not only the CWA
but the state of Kansas and beyond. Any fires that develop Monday
afternoon will likely spread rapidly and may be difficult to
control. Any outdoor burning is highly discouraged.

Another day of fire concern is likely on Wednesday, when low relative
humidities and wind gusts up to 30mph will result in grassland
fire danger index values in the very high category across much of
the CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    30  51  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      28  51  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          28  49  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        29  48  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   29  50  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         25  54  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      25  54  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          27  51  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       26  50  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     28  47  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         27  45  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            26  45  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    27  46  30  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...PJH
FIRE WEATHER...TAV



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