Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 010459
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1159 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST.
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW IS RATHER LARGE...WHICH
IS NOTICEABLE IN THE CLOUD FIELD. THIS EXTENDS OVER KANSAS WITH A
LARGE NUMBER OF OPEN CELL CUMULUS SEEN ON THE VISIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE REGION.

THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE A
LAYER OF STRATUS TO DEVELOP AGAIN.  MOREOVER...FOG IN THE AREA OF
THE NOTED SURFACE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED.  THIS WILL BE
INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND WILL INCLUDE AREAS FROM
ABOUT SALINA SOUTHWEST THROUGH HUTCHINSON AND ANTHONY. THE
FOG/STRATUS IS SHOWN WELL IN THE 12Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT DATA.

NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND FOR THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.  A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET AS LEE TROUGHING
DEVELOPS.

AS THIS IS OCCURRING...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TAKES PLACE.  THIS
WILL CAUSE THE DISTURBANCES IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO TRAVEL
ALONG THE RIDGE AND REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  IT
WILL ALSO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES /ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/ EXPECTED
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  ADDITIONALLY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL ALSO CAUSE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO INCREASE...LIMITING DAYTIME
CONVECTION.

ONE NOTE ABOUT THE FORECAST IS THAT IF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
NOT AS STRONG AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...WE COULD GET INTO A NOCTURNAL
MCS TYPE PATTERN WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FORCED SYSTEMS
COUPLED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
 THIS WOULD BRING MORE RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST AREA.  THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS POINTING AWAY FROM THAT POSSIBILITY RIGHT NOW.

KRC

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

RIDGE BUILDING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE A TREND OF INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND
DECREASING MOISTURE.

KRC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE AVIATION FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WHICH SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE AREA...BUT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
HRRR/RAP AND NAM ALL HINT AT DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED -TSRA AT KRSL AT THIS
POINT IN TIME. LOW MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT MANY
TERMINALS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOIST LOW LEVELS. THESE LOW CLOUDS
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING
IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    56  76  60  82 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      55  76  60  82 /  20  20  10  10
NEWTON          53  73  57  80 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        54  74  57  80 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  75  59  81 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         55  76  60  82 /  20  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      56  76  60  83 /  20  20  10  10
SALINA          55  76  59  81 /  20  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       54  75  59  81 /  20  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     52  75  57  80 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         52  73  56  79 /  10   0  10  10
IOLA            53  72  56  78 /  10   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    52  74  57  79 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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