Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 262012
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
212 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

THIS AFTERNOON...AN EXTREMELY HIGH-AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID
TO UPPER PATTERN (THAT IS NW-SE ORIENTED) CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
NORTH AMERICA...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OF MT. MCKINLEY PROPORTIONS
COVERING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A MID-UPPER
TROUGH DEEPER THAN THE MARIANAS TRENCH (THAT IS A DRIVING FORCE
BEHIND THE MONSTROUS WINTER STORM) CONTINUES TO DIG OVER THE EAST
COAST. BOTH CHARACTERS ARE TEAMING TO PRODUCE A VERY STRONG NW
FLOW REGIME FROM ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN TO ACROSS THE MS VALLEY
TO FL. THE SURFACE TO 850MB FLOW POSSESSES A SUFFICIENT DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO KICK TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 70F IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WHILE THE SOUTHEAST HAS WARMED INTO THE LOWER
60S UNDER SUN-DRENCHED SKIES. RECORDS HAVE BEEN SET OR TIED AT
SEVERAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHT: RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR NEARLY ALL
AREAS ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY:
THE EAST COAST TROF WILL EXPERIENCE CYCLONGENESIS TONIGHT WHILE IT
VENTURES NE ALONG THE NE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WOULD ENABLE THE
HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF
THE U.S. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPACT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CO ROCKIES ON TUESDAY THAT IN TURN WILL QUICKLY
INDUCE LOWER-DECK TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. THE RESULT IS
THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY BACK TO THE WEST THEN SOUTHWEST
TO PROMOTE A RESPECTABLE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OVER THE KS REGION BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE WESTERLY 850-MB FLOW INCREASING TO 20
TO 30 KTS THE GFS MAX SOLUTION IS PREFERRED WHICH WOULD KICK HIGHS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS INTO THE LOWER 70S TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD BREAK RECORD HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL KS WITH
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS A CLOSER CALL.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY:
A DEVELOPING AND RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE SURGING
E/SE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS KS ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL OBVIOUSLY BE COOLER BUT WITH THE COLD
FRONT OF "PACIFIC" ORIGIN THE COOLDOWN WON`T BE AS DRAMATIC.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS:
1) CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT SNOW ARE GREATLY
INCREASING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT.
2) TURNING SHARPLY COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH A QUICK WARMUP ON
MONDAY.

NEXT WEEKEND:
AFTER A NICE END TO THE WORK-WEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND 45 ON FRIDAY A
PRONOUNCED RETURN TO MUCH MORE TYPICAL WINTER WEATHER ARRIVES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A MID-UPPER DECK TROF EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS
TO BAJA CA MOVES SLOWLY EAST...REACHING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. AS THIS CHARACTER CONTINUES ITS TREK EAST OVER
THE UPPER MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT IT`LL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT...ON SATURDAY...SHOULD EXTEND FROM A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
CYCLONE CENTERED THE DAKOTAS TO NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER...SE ACROSS
KS LATE SATURDAY AFTENOON AND EVENING. THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS
INCREASINGLY IMPRESSIVE TO THE EXTENT THAT THE 40-50% CHANCES FOR
A WINTRY AND LIGHT SNOW "ASSIGNED" APPEAR VERY REASONABLE WITH THE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS
SE SURGE TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL SURGE ALMOST DUE SOUTH ACROSS KS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS
FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN CENTRAL KS TO AROUND 25 IN THE SOUTHEAST
ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING BUT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS LOWER-DECK
FLOW BACKS TO A NW THEN WESTERLY COMPONENT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND
IT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND TROUGH PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS NEAR
25 KNOTS IN CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE PATTERN
IN PLACE.

JMC

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RECORD HIGHS:
JAN 27TH:
CHANUTE: 70 IN 1934
RUSSELL: 65 IN 2002
SALINA:  68 IN 1934
WICHITA: 69 IN 2013

JAN 28TH:
CHANUTE: 75 IN 2013
RUSSELL: 76 IN 2013
SALINA:  74 IN 2013
WICHITA: 74 IN 2013

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    35  71  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      34  72  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          33  69  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        34  71  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   34  70  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         33  74  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      35  74  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          34  70  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       33  71  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     33  68  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         33  65  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            32  64  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    33  66  42  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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