Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 291125
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
625 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS
AREA TONIGHT. WITH RECENT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO WARMER
GUIDANCE...ADJUSTED HEAVILY TOWARD GFS 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES.
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE.

TUE-WED:
RIPPLES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ARE ALMOST ALWAYS A PROBLEM...BUT
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON THAT BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
REMAIN NE/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUE. GFS IS THE OUTLIER
WITH MUCH DEEPER/STRONGER SURFACE LOW ON TUE NIGHT/WED
WHICH...GIVEN FLOW ALOFT...SEEMS MUCH LESS LIKELY. EITHER
WAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO BE IN OR CLOSE TO THE FORECAST
AREA ON WED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES
GOING...ALTHOUGH CHANCES IN FAR NORTH/FAR WEST ARE LOOKING SLIM.
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS ARE PROBLEMATIC. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH
CLOUDS ARE FORECAST ON WED...WITH MORE LOW CLOUDS/EXTENSIVE CLOUDS
ON WED WITH FRONT. NEVERTHELESS...TRENDS FOR MOST OF THE YEAR HAVE
FAVORED BIG WARMUPS AHEAD OF FRONTS...SO WENT ONCE AGAIN WITH WARM
GUIDANCE/ THICKNESSES. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...WITH
WESTERN US RIDGE MOVING LITTLE. WITH FORECAST AREA IN NORTHWEST
FLOW...PREDICTABILITY USUALLY DIPS. THERE SEEMS THUS FAR TO BE FAIR
CONTINUITY FOR SHORTWAVE AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER
FRI OR FRI NIGHT. BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP EAST OF AREA OUTSIDE OF
THIS PERIOD...SUGGESTING MOST OF AREA COULD ESCAPE THE NOCTURNAL
MCSS. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...SO THE
THREAT OF A ROGUE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM IS ALWAYS AROUND...BUT
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD FAVOR FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS. THAT SAID...
CONSENSUS HAS FORCED CONSIDERABLY MORE PRECIPITATION THAN WE WOULD
HAVE PREFERRED IN THIS PERIOD...WITH CHANCES MORE LIKELY CONFINED
TO THU MORNING IN SOUTHEAST KS AND ON FRI EAST OF I-35. WHILE
POSSIBLE MOST OTHER TIMES...ANY STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE ISOLATED.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...LATEST NAM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HIT-OR-MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD DAWN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF I-135...AS 800-600MB ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE MEAGER...SO DID NOT INCLUDE
VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER IT IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    93  67  99  75 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      94  64  99  74 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  66  98  74 /   0  10  10  10
ELDORADO        92  65  96  74 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  67  98  76 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         95  64 101  73 /   0  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      96  65 100  74 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          92  65 100  73 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  65  99  73 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  65  94  74 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         90  65  94  73 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            90  65  94  73 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    91  65  94  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.