000
FXUS63 KICT 211830
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
130 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
FAR SOUTHEASTERN KS TODAY NEAR STALLED 850 FRONT...ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN RECENT DAYS. THE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE 850 FRONT OUT OF
SOUTHEAST KS...LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS...WITH THE TRAILING END
OF THE FRONT EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AHEAD
OF AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THE 850
FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPREADING INTO MAINLY OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. LOW PROBABILITIES
FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS LOOKS REASONABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL
DURING THE PERIOD.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND
NORTHEASTERN CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF WAS FLATTER WITH THE
PLAINS RIDGE AND ALLOWS A FRONT TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS OVER
THE WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST CONTINUITY CLOSER TO THE GFS
DURING THE PERIOD. LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW RICH
GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO MOVE BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF WEAK IMPULSES
TOPPING THE PLAINS RIDGE...AND WITH THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE TO OUR
WEST...WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE BY THE WEEKEND.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MODELS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS EVIDENT
BY MORE CUMULUS AND LESS ALTOCUMULUS THAN ANY OF THE MODELS
SUGGEST. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITATION IS FLIRTING OK BORDER AT THIS
TIME. BELIEVE IT WILL TRACK EAST NORTHEAST SO PRECIPITATION COULD
CLIP KCNU LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION.
OVERALL STILL ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL LOCATIONS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    52  77  55  73 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      51  77  53  74 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          50  76  52  74 /  10  10  10  20
ELDORADO        52  77  53  73 /  10  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  79  56  74 /  20  10  10  20
RUSSELL         48  75  50  73 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      49  76  51  72 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA          50  76  51  74 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       50  76  52  74 /  10  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     54  79  56  75 /  30  10  10  20
CHANUTE         53  77  55  74 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            53  76  54  73 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    53  78  56  74 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$