Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 262017
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
317 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS MAINTAINING ITS HOLD ON THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
A TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL NAVIGATE EASTWARD AND STAY OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY
WRAP ITSELF UP ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN OVER THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WITH A SOUTHWARD EXTENDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL BE MOVING IN FROM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND IN WESTERN KANSAS WITH A WEAK WAVE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE WEST COAST. MODELS HAVE DEPICTED A LATER ENTRANCE
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH LED TO ADJUSTING THE POPS TO THE LATTER
TIME PERIOD. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...THERE COULD BE LINGERING
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO START THE WORK WEEK. A SIMILAR
STORY AND A DIFFERENT DAY SHALL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK. EVEN THOUGH HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR
MONDAY...HEAT INDICES SHOULD STAY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA GIVEN
CURRENT FORECAST. IT MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS MIXED ON WHETHER IT WILL OCCUR. THUS DECISION CAN BE
MADE FOR THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEXT FORECAST

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A RELATIVE COOL DOWN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MID WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS DROPPING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...VALUES MAY BE EVEN
LOWER GIVEN PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL THE FORECAST MAINTAINS THE SAME TUNE AS PREVIOUS ISSUANCE
WITH ONLY THE MENTIONED ADJUSTMENTS PER MODEL DEPICTION.

VP

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MAINLY STAYING PUT OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS AS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE NORTHWARD
POSITION OF THE JETSREAM. MODELS HINTING AT A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK TO NEXT
WEEKEND. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH GIVEN THE
TIMEFRAME IN THE FORECAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST.

VP

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ALL AREAS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS WITH ~10,000FT ALTOCU & ~30,000FT
CIRROSTRATUS. A FEW TSRA MAY VENTURE INTO KRSL BTWN 06Z-12Z BUT
WITH TIMING CONFIDENCE AVG AT BEST HAVE LEFT OMITTED "VCTS"
MENTION UNTIL SUCH CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

RECORD WARM LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RUSSELL AND SALINA ON
TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON MINIMAL INFLUENCE FROM SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING TO PRIOR TO CLIMATE ISSUANCE.
COOLER AIR FROM ANY OUTFLOW OR RAIN COOLED AIR WILL SQUASH THE
POTENTIAL.

VP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  99  77  99 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      76 100  77 100 /  20  10  10  20
NEWTON          76  98  76  98 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        75  98  76  98 /  10  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  98  76  97 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         75 100  77  98 /  40  20  10  30
GREAT BEND      75 100  76  99 /  30  20  10  30
SALINA          76 100  78 100 /  20  10  10  30
MCPHERSON       76 100  77 100 /  20  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     75  97  76  96 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         74  96  76  96 /  10  10  10   0
IOLA            74  96  75  96 /  10  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    75  96  76  96 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$


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