Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 212051
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
351 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Large but somewhat weak high pressure that is centered over SC KS
this afternoon is producing `sun`sational weather across the KICT
Neighborhood, where temperatures are in the 80-85F range and winds
along the Wrn corridor have become S/SE ~10 MPH, while the
remaining areas are nearly calm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Tonight:
The afore-mentioned sfc high will drift E across the MS & OH
valleys as sfc troffing begins to assert itself along the Front
Range. As such it won`t be quite as cool as last night but still
very comfortable with lows around 60F.

Mon-Wed Night:
Confidence is increasing that the neighborhood is in for prolonged
periods of thunderstorms. A strengthening mid-upper cyclone, that
is coming onshore over British Columbia this afternoon, will wind
up like an alarm clock as it moves SLOWLY E, reaching Alberta Mon
Afternoon but only as far as the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border Tue
Night. This induce rapid sfc cyclogenesis across the Wrn Plains
which in turn would inject gulf moisture from the Srn Plains that
should reach primarily the Ern half of KS Mon Eve. As the mid-upper
cyclone (though weakening) continues to move very slowly along the
U.S./Canadian Border, the attendant sfc low & cold front would make
slow SE progress thus enabling richer moisture extra time to spread
across KICT Country. This would increase the heavy rain potential
for primarily the Ern half of KS from Tue Night to Wed Night where
precipitable waters are progged to reach around 2 inches. The heavy
rain potential would certainly be enhanced by the arrival of the
slow se-moving cold front that is scheduled to reach the turnpike
Wed Night. The Wed & Wed Night forecasts will draw considerable
attention.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Thu-Fri Night:
The SE progress of the cold front will have to be watched closely
as the GFS & ECMWF are beginning to diverge on its positioning
with the GFS a bit more aggressive. Regardless, the best chances
for heavy rain-producing thunderstorms would target SC & SE KS.

Next Weekend:
Scattered thunderstorms will continue across the region for much
of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Aviation concerns are expected to remain minimal through the next
24 hours.

Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave departing the Great Lakes.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure is situated over southeast KS
into the Ozark region with lee troughing strengthening. High
pressure will shift east into Mon as low pressure continues to
develop over the high Plains. This will increase south winds by
Mon afternoon. Confidence remains high that vfr conditions will
remain in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    59  86  69  87 /   0   0  30  40
Hutchinson      60  87  69  88 /   0   0  20  30
Newton          59  86  69  87 /   0   0  20  40
ElDorado        58  86  69  87 /   0   0  20  40
Winfield-KWLD   59  87  69  88 /   0   0  30  40
Russell         61  88  69  89 /   0   0  20  20
Great Bend      61  88  69  89 /   0   0  20  20
Salina          60  87  69  88 /   0   0  20  30
McPherson       60  87  69  88 /   0   0  20  30
Coffeyville     59  85  68  86 /   0   0  20  50
Chanute         58  84  69  85 /   0   0  20  60
Iola            58  84  70  84 /   0   0  20  60
Parsons-KPPF    58  85  69  86 /   0   0  20  60

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...RBL



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