Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 262010
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
310 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

A slow moving cold front bisecting central KS today will move
over the area tonight and during the morning hours on Thursday.
Low level southwest prefrontal flow will result in a deep dry
layer ahead of the front while the latest NAM indicates more cinh
within the mid level thermal ridge over much of south central and
southeast KS. This lowers confidence in storm coverage as the
front sinks south tonight with only isolated/widely scattered
coverage anticipated. We may still see some pockets of heavy rain
given slow storm motions within a high pwat airmass.

Precipitation will linger into the day on Thursday, especially
across southeast KS while more seasonable air overspreads the
forecast area in the wake of the front. Highs on Thu are expected
to range from the mid to upper 80s where clouds linger across
south central and portions of central KS to the low 90s in far
southeast KS.

Fri-Sat...a dry post-frontal regime is anticipated through the
period with light northeasterly winds and seasonably mild
temperatures. Highs both days are expected to be in the upper 80s
for most areas with lows falling into the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

The mid/upper ridge is progged to amplify across the central
Great Basin area during the extended periods. This will result in
north to northwesterly mid/upper flow across the Central Plains
states. We may see a shortwave trough or two emerge across the
area bringing an increasing chance for precipitation toward the
middle of the week but confidence in timing remains low at this
time. Temperatures will remain seasonable through the period with
highs in the upper 80s and lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Main aviation concerns will be storm chances through tonight along
with lowering ceilings behind the front.

Showers and storms continue to linger over central KS and still
look to be associated with a mid level baroclinic zone ahead of
the surface front. Cold front currently extends from eastern
Nebraska into western KS. Should see a break after the elevated
activity moves out of central KS with some redevelopment possible
along the cold front later this afternoon/early evening. Iso-sct
storm chances will follow the front as it pushes south tonight.
While confidence is high we are not looking at widespread storm
coverage, feel confident there will at least be activity on radar
most of the night into Thu morning.

By Thu morning, the better storm chances should be over southern
KS as the cold front finally moves south of the forecast area.
Will also see some lower clouds late tonight into Thu morning as
cooler air spills-in behind the front. At this point not confident
enough to run with IFR levels, but do feel some MVFR levels are
likely for mainly central Kansas.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    76  87  70  89 /  30  20  10  10
Hutchinson      74  86  67  89 /  30  20  10   0
Newton          74  86  68  87 /  30  20  10   0
ElDorado        75  87  69  87 /  30  30  20   0
Winfield-KWLD   78  89  71  90 /  30  20  20  10
Russell         70  87  65  89 /  20  10   0   0
Great Bend      71  87  66  89 /  20  10  10  10
Salina          74  87  67  90 /  30  20   0   0
McPherson       73  86  66  88 /  30  20  10   0
Coffeyville     79  92  72  89 /  20  30  30  10
Chanute         78  91  71  87 /  30  30  30  10
Iola            77  89  70  87 /  30  30  30  10
Parsons-KPPF    79  91  72  88 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ067>072-082-083-
091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...RBL


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