Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 080910
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
310 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH LOTS OF COLD ADVECTION ACROSS MOST
OF THE PLAINS ON THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT A FAIRLY
TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE SW OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
COMBINING WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO RESULT IN STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BUT
POSSIBLY STRONGER. FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MIXING TO
8000H WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO 40-45 KTS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND SE KS...WHERE GRADIENT AND MID LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST. PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE ALREADY HOISTED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AND THINK THIS
LOOKS FINE. THINK THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
TODAY...WITH NUMEROUS PLACES REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30
MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

EXPECTING COOLER MAX TEMPS TODAY..GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION...BUT
SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WITH FULL SUNSHINE WILL TEMPER THE COOL DOWN.
THE DRY AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER DANGER TODAY...SEE THE LATEST INFORMATION IN THE FIRE
SECTION BELOW.

NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUE AND GENERALLY
THROUGH FRI. TODAYS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST
OF THE AREA FOR TUE AND WED...WHICH WILL LEAD TO WINDS THAT ARE
LESS GUSTY WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS. EXPECT BETTER
DOWNSLOPE FLOW FOR WED AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH IN THE NW
FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE WESTERLY WINDS WITH MAX TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER 50S.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MODERATING TEMPS WILL STICK AROUND FOR THU AND FRI AS NW FLOW
REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES FOR LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THIS SHORTWAVE HELPING TO PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE ERN HALF OF KS FOR SAT. MOST OF THE COLDER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SHUNTED TO THE EAST OF THE
PLAINS...BUT ENOUGH OF THE COOLER AIR WILL OOZE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TO PUSH TEMPS BACK TOWARDS NORMAL IN THE LOWER 40S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON THE NW FLOW PATTERN BREAKING
DOWN SOME FOR THE WEEKEND...AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DROPS SE ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MOISTURE IS VERY
LIMITED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS...SO WOULD PREFER TO REMOVE POPS
FOR NOW AND SEE IF MOISTURE QUALITY IMPROVES LATER IN THE WEEK.
QUICK HITTING NATURE WILL NOT LEAD TO MUCH OF A PRECIP CHANCE EVEN
IF MOISTURE DOES IMPROVE.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE COMBINATION OF A PERSISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND TURBULENT
MIXING WILL PROMOTE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
TAF CYCLE. COULD SEE WINDS RELAX A BIT BEFORE SUNRISE...HOWEVER
GIVEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE MID/LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 MPH. CLOUDS WILL
BISECT THE STATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH KCNU HAVING THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING LOW END VFR CEILINGS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS OF LIGHT SNOW FOR NOW AS KCNU LOOKS TO BE ON
THE VERY EDGE OF ANY DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOW.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
IS EXPECTED. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE TEENS WILL LEAD TO EXTREME VALUES MAINLY FOR AREAS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KS. SOME CONCERN THAT COOLER TEMPS...WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. BUT THINK THAT CURED FUELS WILL
OVERCOME THIS AND LEAD TO ANY FIRE GETTING OUT OF CONTROL GIVEN
THE STRONG NW WINDS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  25  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      41  24  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          40  24  42  24 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        40  24  44  25 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   43  25  47  26 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         38  24  43  25 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      38  24  46  25 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          39  23  44  24 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       40  24  43  25 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     42  25  44  24 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         39  24  41  22 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            37  23  39  21 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    40  25  43  22 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ050-067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$


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