Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 211810
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
110 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING FROM NORTHEAST CO TO
CENTRAL & EASTERN NEBRASKA HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALONG A SLOW SE-MOVING
COLD FRONT CURVING FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO THE CO/NM BORDER. THE
DRIVING MECHANISM HAS BEEN A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS TO EXTREME NORTHEAST NM. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING YET
ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT ACROSS THE WFO WICHITA PREMISES WHERE SOUTH 15
TO 25 MPH WINDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 80S IN ALL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

TODAY:
THE LARGE MID-UPPER HIGH COVERING THE GULF COAST REGION THAT HAS BEEN A
TOPIC THE PAST 3 NIGHTS IS BEHAVING AS EXPECTED...SPREADING SLOWLY WEST
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WOULD FORCE THE BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS NE ACROSS NEBRASKA WHERE IT`LL SHEAR
QUICKLY TODAY. THE RESULT: MORE DRY WEATHER FOR THE NEIGHBORHOOD TODAY.

TONIGHT:
THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. PERSISTENT SURFACE TROFFING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL CONTINUE INDUCING FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE TO
MIGRATE NE ACROSS WESTERN & CENTRAL KS BUT MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE A BIT
FEEBLE & WITH WARM MID LEVELS...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WOULD BE LIMITED
WITH ANY CHANCES CONFINED TO CENTRAL KS.

FRI & FRI NIGHT:
AFTER ANOTHER HOT & BREEZY DAY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY VENTURE INTO THE
NEIGHBORHOOD FROM WESTERN KS LATE TONIGHT AS A MORE ROBUST MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE & NORTHEAST
CO BUT WITH THE MASSIVE MID-UPPER HIGH CONTINUING TO SPREAD/RETROGRADE
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE SHORTWAVE WOULD BE FORCED NE TOWARD THE
NEBRASKA/SD BORDER. AS SUCH THE BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF KS. HAVE ASSIGNED 20-30% POPS TO AREAS
PRIMARILY ALONG & W OF I-135.

SAT & SAT NIGHT:
WITH THE AFORE-MENTIONED INTENSE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEING "FORCED" TO
MOVE DUE N OVER THE DAKOTAS ON SAT HOT & DRY WEATHER WILL AGAIN GRIP
ALL AREAS ON SAT. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE SAT
NIGHT AS INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVER THE MT/ND BORDER. A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL SCOOT DUE EAST AROUND THE BASE OF CYCLONE TOWARD...THEN
ACROSS...THE CO/KS BORDER. THIS WOULD FORCE A COLD FRONT ESE ACROSS THE
CO/KS BORDER LATE SAT NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS WOULD SURGE E/NE TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL
KS LATE SAT NIGHT & EARLY SUN MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY ANTICIPATED FOR SUN & SUN NIGHT THE
BETTER CHANCES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM MON NIGHT THRU TUE
NIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST/MOST INTENSE MID-UPPER WAVE SURGES E ACROSS
KS & NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
CONVECTION. THE HRRR MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE ALL CONTINUED TO
SHOW CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN AN AREA ROUGHLY FROM HUTCHINSON TO
DODGE CITY. THIS IS JUST AHEAD OF A STALLED FRONT. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS FAVORABLE AND THE STRUCTURE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED MUCH.

THE HRRR FORECASTS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
ACCURATE AND THERE IS NO REASON TO THINK TODAYS WILL NOT BE. THAT
SAID...THE MODEL IS TRENDING TOWARD LESS PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...WHILE TRENDING MORE TOWARD STORMS
REMAINING SOUTH AND BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PAN HANDLE.

KEPT CONTINUITY IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. BEST TIME FOR CONVECTION TO
AFFECT THE TAFS IS FROM 00Z-05Z. THIS TIMING IS MUCH EARLIER THAN
THE LAMP OUTPUT...BUT MORE IN LINE WITH THE HRRR. THE LAMP OUTPUT
HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THE HRRR.

COOK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    99  77  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      99  76  99  75 /  10  20  10  20
NEWTON          98  76  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        98  77  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   99  77  97  76 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL        100  74  97  74 /  20  20  10  30
GREAT BEND     100  74  97  74 /  20  20  10  20
SALINA         101  77  99  75 /  10  20  10  20
MCPHERSON      100  76  98  75 /  10  20  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     98  76  97  74 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         98  76  97  74 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            97  76  97  74 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    97  76  97  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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