Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 130516
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1216 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

CONTINUING TO WATCH SOUTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
FAIRLY LOW CLOUD DECK. AT MID-NIGHT THE NORTHERN EDGE EXTENDED
FROM AROUND KINGMAN THRU NEWTON TO EXTREME EASTERN KS. THE
CLEARING SKIES WILL NO DOUBT HAVE RAMIFICATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES
ACROSS CENTRAL KS WHERE TEMPS HAD SLOWLY LOWERED TO AROUND 40F
WITH UPPER 30S RESIDING IN PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN KS. ONLY CHANGE
TO LAST UPDATE ISSUED AT 553 PM WAS TO CLEAR SKIES A BIT SOONER.
INHERITED TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN KEPT INTACT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

TONIGHT:
BREAKAGE OF STRATOCU IS TAKING LONGER THAN HAD BEEN EXPECTED WITH
NEARLY ALL OF KICT COUNTRY UNDER 2.500-3,500 FT STRATOCU. THIS
ALSO PROMPTED REMOVAL OF TEMPORAL WORDING "EARLY THIS EVENING"
FROM ALL AFFECTED ZONES. TIMING OF CLEARING TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED
VERY CLOSELY AS THIS NO DOUBT WOULD HAVE RAMIFICATIONS ON
TEMPERATURE DROPS ACROSS CENTRAL KS WHERE RECORD LOWS ARE IN
JEOPARDY AT RUSSELL & SALINA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

UNSEASONABLY COOL MAY TURN TO RECORD COLD TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS AS SKIES CLEAR ABOVE THE LARGE
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MID-AMERICA. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS
TO ALLOW MINS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S. THE GOING
FORECAST SEEMS RIGHT ON TRACK SO LITTLE IF ANY TWEAKS NEEDED
EXCEPT TO ADD PATCHY FROST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE. DUE TO THE EXPECTED
PATCHY/MARGINAL NATURE OF ANY FROST NO HEADLINE IS PLANNED.
HOWEVER THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR SKY/TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FOR ANY INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD FROST.
OTHERWISE A PROGRESSIVE WARMING TREND IS STILL ANTICIPATED THRU
THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES EVEN BY SUNDAY WILL REMAIN A BIT
BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE RETURN
FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SO WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT TO MODEST POPS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP/CONVECTION WILL COME
ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH
AGAIN IS DEPICTED WELL IN THE GOING FORECAST.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW REGIME ALOFT FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK WITH
KANSAS BETWEEN THE EASTERN CONUS TROF AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES. THEREFORE AFTER PRECIP CHANCES AND SLIGHT
COOLING BEHIND FRONT ON TUESDAY EXPECT A GENERAL WARMUP FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE ROCKIES RIDGE TRANSLATES EAST
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH WARMER SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THERE MAY BE MODEST CHANCES FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH...SO WILL RETAIN THE LOW POPS LATE WEDNESDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OUTER PERIODS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL CLIMO FOR NOW.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

ONCE THE ~3,000FT STRATOCU VACATES SC & SE KS (WHICH SHOULD BE
~08Z) THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR ANY OF THE TERMINALS. LIGHT NE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SE/S ACROSS CNTRL & SC KS BY ~12Z WITH
SPEEDS <=13KTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 13TH
RUSSELL 36 SET IN 1974
SALINA  37 SET IN 1902
CHANUTE 44 SET IN 2006
WICHITA 37 SET IN 1890

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  79  63  82 /   0  10  10  40
HUTCHINSON      50  80  62  78 /   0  10  10  30
NEWTON          50  77  62  78 /   0  10  20  40
ELDORADO        51  79  62  81 /   0  10  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   52  79  64  83 /   0  10  10  40
RUSSELL         49  79  59  71 /   0  10  20  30
GREAT BEND      49  80  60  73 /   0  10  10  30
SALINA          49  78  61  74 /   0  10  30  30
MCPHERSON       50  78  61  76 /   0  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     50  79  62  82 /   0  10  20  50
CHANUTE         49  78  61  81 /   0  10  20  50
IOLA            48  77  61  80 /   0  10  30  50
PARSONS-KPPF    50  78  61  81 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





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