Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 230440
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY HAVE A LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH A LEAD IMPULSE TRACKING OVER SW NEBRASKA/NW KS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE MIDDLE MISS VALLEY
WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN CO AHEAD OF THE
UPPER WAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POTENTIAL SAT
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
KS TURNPIKE.

THE MODERATE RAINFALL FROM THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE AN OVERALL BREAK IN
THE RAIN TONIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN UPPER
IMPULSES. HOWEVER...WE WILL MAINTAIN MOIST LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT WHICH WILL AT LEAST KEEP SOME DRIZZLE AROUND...SOME WHICH
MAYBE HEAVY ENOUGH TO MEASURE.

MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BY SAT AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS 850-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REALLY RAMP UP. IN ADDITION...DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM 850-300MB WILL RESULT IN PW`S AROUND 1.75"
OVER SE KS BY SAT EVENING WHICH IS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE GIVEN
THE TIME OF YEAR. THESE HIGH PW VALUES ARE ALSO 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. SUN INTO SUN EVENING THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A N-S ORIENTED UPPER JET WILL START TO AFFECT THE
AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ENHANCEMENT OF
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FOR SE KS WHERE PW WILL REMAIN HIGH.

AT THIS POINT HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR FLOODING FOR SE KS.
ALSO FEEL WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE SAT AFTERNOON-
EVENING...SOME WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS FAR WEST AS
WICHITA...ESPECIALLY SINCE GROUNDS ARE MORE SATURATED THIS FAR
WEST. THE FLOODING THREAT AS FAR WEST AS I-135 SHOULD BE COMING
TO AN END BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR SE KS THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. SO WILL SEGMENT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS FOR MON WITH THE
MAIN UPPER ENERGY OVER NEBRASKA/SD. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER AT LEAST SE KS MON WITH VERY HIGH
INSTABILITY EXPECTED BY MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS TO BE OUR BEST SHOT FOR SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-135. THIS LOOKS TO BE AN EXTREME
INSTABILITY/LOW SHEAR TYPE EVENT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO HP TYPE
SUPERCELLS WHICH MAY NOT ONLY PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...BUT MAY
ALSO ADD TO THE FLOODING THREAT.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR HAS DEVELOPED AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE AFTER 15Z ON SAT. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
WILL SHIFT ALONG AND EAST OF THE TURNPIKE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ON SAT. CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT
IN REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  67  62  75 /  50  90  70  40
HUTCHINSON      54  66  62  75 /  50  80  50  30
NEWTON          53  66  61  75 /  50  80  70  50
ELDORADO        54  68  63  73 /  50  90  80  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  70  63  74 /  50 100  80  50
RUSSELL         51  65  59  77 /  50  60  30  20
GREAT BEND      53  65  59  76 /  50  60  30  30
SALINA          53  66  61  75 /  50  70  50  30
MCPHERSON       54  66  61  75 /  50  80  50  30
COFFEYVILLE     55  73  65  74 /  50  90 100 100
CHANUTE         55  70  65  73 /  50  80 100 100
IOLA            55  70  64  74 /  50  80 100 100
PARSONS-KPPF    55  71  65  74 /  50  90 100 100

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ052-053-068-069-083-092-093.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR KSZ070>072-094>096-098>100.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.