Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 211724
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1224 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

DEWPOINTS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS THEY HAD RISEN INTO THE MID 70S AS OF
16Z AND WERE HOLDING. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN THE
HEAT INDEX ACROSS THE AFFECTED AREA...PUSHING THEM INTO THE 105 TO
108 RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...COORDINATED AND EXTENDED
THE HEAT ADVISORY SOUTH TO THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER.

COOK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE HEAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CONTINUE ON TUESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES PUSHING ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK FOR
ALL LOCATIONS. HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN HIGHER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTER WILL RETROGRADE A BIT FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES SYNC UP AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LOOKS TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR WEDNESDAY. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. SHEAR IS ON
THE WEAKER SIDE BUT DECENT INSTABILITY STILL SUPPORTS SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BUT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MIGRATE BACK NORTH FOR FRIDAY...WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS. WE COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VSBYS AND CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR CONDITIONS. THE MAIN PROBLEM
FOR AVIATION IS WIND. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT 15G25 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASE TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...THEN
INCREASE TO SIMILAR LEVELS TUESDAY. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COOK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    97  74  99  75 /   0  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      99  74 101  74 /   0  10  10  20
NEWTON          97  73 100  73 /   0  10  10  20
ELDORADO        96  73  99  73 /   0  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  73  98  75 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELL        103  73 103  73 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND     101  73 102  73 /   0  10  10  20
SALINA         103  76 104  75 /  10  10  10  40
MCPHERSON      100  74 103  75 /   0  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     93  71  97  74 /   0  10  10  20
CHANUTE         94  72  98  73 /   0  10  10  30
IOLA            94  72  99  74 /   0  10  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    93  71  97  73 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-068>072-094>096-099-100.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$






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