Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 052343
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
543 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 250 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Water vapor imagery shows upper low finally lifting out across
central TX with additional shortwave energy tracking across the
northern Rockies. At the surface, a strong cold front stretches
from eastern SD into western Nebraska and is quickly pushing
southeast.

Cold front is expected to push through the forecast area tonight
as the upper energy over the Rockies lifts across the northern
Plains and into the northern Mississippi Valley. Any precip
associated with the upper low lifting over TX is expected to stay
southeast of the forecast area. In addition, precip associated
with the front should stay northeast of the forecast area.
Attention will then turn to another impulse that is expected to
track out of the Pacific NW tonight and across the central Plains
on Wed.

As this system approaches, a very tight mid level baroclinic zone
will develop over nw KS Tue night into Wed morning with backing
mid level winds generating lift in the form of warm advection
along this baroclinic zone. Should see an west-east band of light
to moderate snow develop Tue night over nw KS and track southeast
during the day Wed. Frontogenesis looks to weaken as it pushes
southeast Wed which should result in the better snow accumulations
over nw KS with a lower gradient into central KS. Even though
model QPF isn`t that impressive, strong mid level frontogenesis
along with at least some slantwise instability should allow an
inch or two to be possible over central KS with higher amounts
over nw KS. With plenty of cold air in place by Wed morning,
precip type is expected to be all snow.

Coldest airmass of the season is then expected to spill south
across the central Plains Wed which will result in highs Wed in
the 20s and 30s and single digit lows Thu morning over central
KS.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

After this wave departs, strong zonal flow will setup over the
Plains for the end of the work week through the weekend. This
will promote a warming trend with near normal temps returning for
Sat and Sun. There is some model agreement that an impulse will
track across the area Sun with the better precip chances
associated with this feature staying north and east of the
forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 543 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

A strong cold front currently pushing into NW KS-North Central KS
will continue to push south-southeast across the forecast area for
the evening and overnight hours.  This strong cold front will shift
the winds around to the NW with some gusty winds for a few hours
after the front moves through. Some of the Hi-Rez model solutions
show some stratus developing just ahead of the cold front for areas
along and east of the KS Turnpike. think confidence in this
developing is high enough in SE KS that KCNU Taf may be affected by
some possible MVFR cigs just ahead or right along the leading edge
of the front late tonight or early Tue morning. So will include this
mention in the KCNU Taf.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    28  41  25  33 /  10   0  10  30
Hutchinson      27  41  24  31 /  10   0  10  30
Newton          28  40  24  30 /  10   0  10  30
ElDorado        29  40  25  32 /  10   0  10  30
Winfield-KWLD   31  42  27  35 /  10   0   0  20
Russell         23  38  21  27 /   0   0  30  60
Great Bend      24  38  22  29 /   0   0  30  60
Salina          25  39  21  30 /   0   0  20  40
McPherson       26  40  23  30 /  10   0  10  30
Coffeyville     34  44  27  37 /  10   0   0  30
Chanute         30  41  26  34 /  10   0   0  40
Iola            30  40  26  33 /  10   0   0  40
Parsons-KPPF    33  43  28  36 /  10   0   0  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...BDK



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