Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 220442
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1142 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Tonight-Wednesday:
Low level moisture will be on the increase, with low clouds
expected to spread north during this period. Based on model
initializations and biases, think clouds will be a bit slower to
move into northern half than NAM/GFS suggest with RAP/ECMWF
looking more realistic. Some chance of precipitation lingering in
far Southeast KS, but is more likely on northern edge of better
moisture tomorrow morning and in far Southeast KS. Temperatures
will likely be moderated both tonight and tomorrow by the
extensive clouds.

Thursday-Friday:
models continue to pump out multiple chances for precipitation,
but current thinking is better chances will wait until Friday in
advance of dryline. Chances for Wichita metro and points west are
decreasing due to the timing of the dryline. Maxes will be a
challenge, with a lot riding on amount of clouds. Temperatures
will likely run well above normal ahead of the front, especially
behind the dryline.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Medium range models in fairly good agreement with
timing/amplitude of upper flow. Wrap around clouds will linger on
Saturday, but main concern is the closed low and shortwave on its
heels that will traverse the area on Sunday and then on Tuesday.
Temperatures will remain at or above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Expect mostly cloudy VFR ceilings around 4000-6000 ft AGL across
much of the area through Wednesday morning, with ceilings
gradually deteriorating to MVFR Wednesday afternoon and evening,
and likely IFR Wednesday night. Northeast winds will remain
rather breezy overnight, and turning more east/southeasterly
Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Gusty winds will persist for a few more hours this afternoon
resulting in very high GFDI values. Very high values are also
forecast on Thu with strong return flow and then on Fri as dryline
and front moves through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    44  55  50  76 /  10  20  30  20
Hutchinson      42  54  47  76 /  10  20  20  30
Newton          41  53  47  74 /  10  20  30  20
ElDorado        42  54  48  75 /  10  20  30  20
Winfield-KWLD   45  57  51  76 /  10  20  30  20
Russell         38  55  45  77 /  10  10  20  20
Great Bend      39  55  46  78 /  10  10  20  20
Salina          39  54  47  76 /  10  10  30  30
McPherson       40  53  46  75 /  10  20  30  30
Coffeyville     46  55  50  75 /  20  30  40  20
Chanute         43  53  47  75 /  10  20  30  20
Iola            42  54  46  74 /  10  20  30  30
Parsons-KPPF    46  54  49  75 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...PJH



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