Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 250003
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
603 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TONIGHT...WHICH IS ALREADY BRINGING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER KANSAS. WESTERLY WINDS/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SOME MIXING HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS...WHILE STAYING IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A VIGOROUS TROUGH WAS DIGGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES THIS
EVENING. A TRANSIENT AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN AN AREA OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCREASE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND ADJUSTING THE TIMING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST.

A BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON SUNDAY. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AND
WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL CAA/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG PRESSURE RISES...SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30+ KNOTS APPEAR
LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA ALL DAY ON SUNDAY. IF THE 00Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
HOISTED LATER THIS EVENING.

MCGUIRE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI TONIGHT. WHAT IS DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE IS
HOW FAR WESTWARD THE ENERGY IS. THIS BRINGS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. LOWER
LEVELS STILL LOOK QUITE DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH...HOWEVER...INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND/OR
SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MOVING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY
MORNING. NORTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEEING PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TOMORROW...BUT COOLER THAN
TODAY AND WHAT IS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE DISTURBANCE MOVING IN
TONIGHT WILL BRING BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS...HOWEVER HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW 50S. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE
VERY HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING NEARLY 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORDS COULD BE IN
JEOPARDY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE TO FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVELS WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL ENSUE. HIGHS WILL AGAIN
BE IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK HIGHS WILL
SLOWLY DROP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND BACK IN TO THE 30S BY THE
WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SPECIFICS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. TRANSIENT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT...HOWEVER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 4K FT
WITH VFR PREVAILING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EARLY ON SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS COMMON
ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KS ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 26TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 1953
SALINA......70 DEGREES IN 1951
RUSSELL.....72 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....73 DEGREES IN 1911

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 27TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 2013
SALINA......68 DEGREES IN 1934
RUSSELL.....65 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....70 DEGREES IN 1934

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    39  53  30  66 /  30  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      39  53  29  66 /  40  10   0   0
NEWTON          38  50  29  63 /  30  10   0   0
ELDORADO        39  51  29  63 /  40  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   39  54  30  66 /  30  10   0   0
RUSSELL         38  52  29  69 /  40  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      38  54  29  69 /  30  10   0   0
SALINA          39  52  29  65 /  40  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       39  52  29  65 /  40  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     40  54  29  61 /  20  10   0   0
CHANUTE         39  51  28  59 /  30  10   0   0
IOLA            38  49  28  58 /  30  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    39  52  28  59 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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