Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 041729
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1129 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TWO AREAS OF SNOW ARE CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THE NORTHERN AREA OF SNOW TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS IT SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENING. MEANWHILE THE SECOND BAND OVER
SOUTHERN KANSAS SHOULD BE THE MORE PROMINENT SNOW MAKER...AS
FRONTOGENESIS MAINTAINS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THIS BAND OF SNOW
WILL THEN SINK SOUTHWARD...AS UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH WITH THE
SNOW BAND WEAKENING AND AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE SNOW LOOKS TO
EXIT THE REGION BEFORE SUNSET THEREFORE WE WILL CANCEL THE
ADVISORY SOONER. EXPECTING THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAND FROM HUTCHINSON TO NEWTON TO
MARION...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED LOCATION
REACHING 3 INCHES IF THE BAND MAINTAINS LONGER IN THIS AREA.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL WAVE
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES.
THE STAR WILL SHINE BRIGHTLY ACROSS KANSAS FOR THURSDAY HOWEVER
MODIFICATION OF COLD AIRMASS WILL BE SLOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. ONCE AGAIN THE STAR WILL
SHINE IN FULL DISPLAY ON FRIDAY...WITH PREMIUM DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS
OF WESTERLY WINDS BOOSTING DAYTIME HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE
FOR KANSAS THIS PERIOD...COMPARED TO THE RELENTLESS COLD AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE EXPERIENCED THE PAST 3 WEEKS. A CHANGE TO
THE UPPER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE FOURTH COMING FOR THE HEARTLAND...AS
THE DEEP MERIDIONAL TROUGHING THAT HAS PLAGUED MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN. GEO-POTENTIAL HEIGHT RISES
AND MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
STATES...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIR
BOTTLED UP IN CANADA. THE RESULT WILL BE A NICE DRY AND WARM
WEATHER PATTERN FOR KANSAS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND ASSOCIATED INTERMITTENT MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE CNU TERMINAL BY MID-
AFTERNOON...AS A ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE.
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLACKEN BY THIS EVENING.

ADK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE FIRE DANGER LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE LOW END INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHTER
WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    28  12  39  22 / 100  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      29  10  39  22 / 100  10   0   0
NEWTON          28  11  39  22 / 100  10   0   0
ELDORADO        27  12  37  22 /  90  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   27  12  37  21 /  80  10   0   0
RUSSELL         33   7  42  21 /  50   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      31   7  41  21 /  50   0   0   0
SALINA          32   8  40  22 /  60   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       30   9  39  22 /  90   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     28  13  34  19 /  70  10   0   0
CHANUTE         27  12  34  19 /  80  10   0   0
IOLA            27  12  33  19 /  80  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    27  12  34  19 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ069-
083-092>096-098>100.

&&

$$


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