Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 020812
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH COMING ON SHORE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE SPILLING INTO THE
PLAINS FROM THE DESERT SW. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LEE TROUGHING IS
IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY THRU FRI WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE
TUE WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. 850MB TEMPS AND
1000-850MB PARTIAL THICKNESSES WOULD AGAIN SUPPORT UPPER 90S OVER
CENTRAL KS WITH MID TO LOW 90S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WINDS ON THU LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN TODAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KS. WITH THE UPPER
PATTERN CHANGING LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WESTERN KS. FOR NOW CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED
PERIODS.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE...THAT IS NOW COMING ON SHORE OVER THE
PACIFIC NW...WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST AND WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUN AFTERNOON AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND BY MON MORNING WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL IA
DOWN INTO SW KS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH AGREE ON LIFTING AN UPPER
IMPULSE OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND ACROSS KS ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
THE SURFACE FRONT COMBINED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. IN
ADDITION...TEMPS WILL FINALLY FALL BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES OR EVEN
A FEW DEGREES BELOW.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL ELEVATED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON THIS POSSIBILITY. PLAN TO CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS
POTENTIAL WITH A PERIOD OF BKN ALTOCU/ACCAS DECK AT KRSL AND KSLN
THOUGH WILL HOLD OFF ON VCTS. OTHERWISE...DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

KED


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  70  94  72 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      94  70  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          94  70  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        93  70  93  71 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  70  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         97  71  96  72 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      97  71  96  72 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          95  71  94  73 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       94  70  95  71 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  69  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         91  69  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            91  69  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    91  69  92  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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