Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 260504
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1104 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

TNGT-WED: NW FLOW WILL REMAIN CONTROL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SEASONAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
WILL SEE A SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF
NORTHERN MONTANA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT THIS TO
PLUNGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT EXPECT THE CLIPPER TO STAY
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...PACIFIC IN NATURE.  LOW LAYERS REMAIN VERY DRY
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THIS SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER
LEADING TO MAINLY MID LEVEL SATURATION AS IT SLIDES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS MID LEVEL SATURATION COULD LEAD TO SOME
SPRINKLES FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN CENTRAL KS
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  CURRENT GRIDS/ZONES HAVE THIS
COVERED WELL.

AFTER THIS CLIPPER SLIPS EAST OF THE AREA...SURFACE WINDS WILL
SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AGAIN ON WED.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
SURFACE TEMPS FALLING BACK SOME AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS. EXPECT THE COOLEST TEMPS OVER
NORTHEAST KS FOR WED/WED NIGHT.

EXPECT TO SEE THE START OF NICE WARMUP ON THU AS THE NW FLOW PATTERN
BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.  THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO WARMUP FOR THE WRN HALF OF KS ON THU CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS.

NOT EXPECTING ANY TRAVEL CONCERNS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR EITHER WED
OR THU AS AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY.

FRI-SAT: THE WARMUP CONTINUES FOR FRI AND SAT AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL.  THIS WILL LEAD TO WEST-SW FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH 850H TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 12-14 DEG C. RANGE.  THIS
USUALLY TRANSLATES INTO TO GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS AND A NICE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING. SOME AREAS COULD SEE MAX TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE
60S. PLAN ON WARMING TEMPS UP SOME OVER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR BOTH
FRI AND SAT GIVEN THIS FLOW PATTERN.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUN...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...POSSIBLY INTO KS. MODELS
DIFFER SOME ON HOW MUCH OF THIS COLD AIR WILL ACTUALLY SEEP INTO
KS...WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW. THE ECMWF IS
MORE BULLISH IN PUSHING THIS COLD AIR FURTHER SOUTH. EITHER
SOLUTION SUGGESTS TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR SUN INTO
MON. PREFER TO GO A LITTLE BELOW CONSENSUS CLOSER TO THE CONSRAW
FOR MAXES ON SUN. NOT ALOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY ON SUN...SO EXPECTING MAINLY A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF GULF MOISTURE POSSIBLY REACHING SE
KS...ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS FOR SUN
NIGHT.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. 500-300
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
IN THE 06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...ALLOWING MID-LEVEL
MOISTENING/SATURATION WITH FAIRLY DRY LOW-LEVELS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. NOT EXPECTING VSBY/CIGS TO
DROP BELOW VFR IF ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAKES IT TO THE GROUND
BEFORE EVAPORATING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST
NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF AROUND 30-35 KNOTS ARE PROGGED DURING
WEDNESDAY FROM AROUND 15Z INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MIXING WILL BE THE STRONGEST.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  47  24  48 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      34  46  23  49 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          34  44  23  45 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        35  46  25  48 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   34  49  25  48 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         31  43  20  51 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      32  45  22  52 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          34  44  22  45 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       34  45  22  47 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     35  50  26  46 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         33  47  24  44 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            33  45  24  43 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    34  49  24  45 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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