Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 231931
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
231 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

A shortwave trough moving eastward across southern Saskatchewan
early this afternoon will help drive a cold front south into the
central high plains this evening and tonight. This front will
provide a focus for deep moist convection over northwest KS but due
to weak mid and upper flow much of the activity may struggle making
eastward progress into our forecast area. Maintained low pops across
portions of central KS although higher probabilities should remain
north and west of the forecast area.

Convective debris may linger into the morning hours on Sunday across
much of the area limiting insolation and impacting high
temperatures. This lowers confidence in meeting our heat criteria
but some moisture pooling along the sagging front may help drive
heat indices over the century mark. The NAM/GFS differ in where the
slow moving front will set up on Sunday and generally leaned toward
the more southern NAM solution. The front will become a focus for
deep moist convection after 20z on Sun but initiation could be a bit
faster as convective inhibition if progged to remain relatively
weak. Storms developing along the front Sunday will likely linger
into the evening/overnight hours with some outflow interactions but
there remains little support for upscale growth Sunday night.

Mon-Tue...The diffuse frontal boundary/residual outflow
boundaries may serve as a focus for additional storm development
on Monday and maintained low pops as confidence remains fairly low
at this time. As the mid/upper ridge continues to
retrograde...decreasing thickness and an easterly component to the
low lvl wind should result in more seasonable highs in the low/mid
90s. The airmass is progged to remain weakly capped into Tuesday
with some diurnally driven storms remaining possible across the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

The subtropical ridge is progged to set up over the Southwest
resulting in NW mid/upper flow across the Central Plains states.
This will bring multiple opportunities for precipitation through
the period and seasonably mild temperatures across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Persistent lee trough will allow for southerly winds to gust to
20-24 knots at times this afternoon before diminishing early this
evening. A developing southwesterly low-level jet may provide
marginal low-level wind shear across portions of central/south-
central Kansas late tonight/early Sunday morning.

A weak front will drop south into northwestern Kansas late
tonight, then pushing into central Kansas Sunday morning. Slight
chance of storms developing near the front this evening in
northwest Kansas. Will include a VCTS at RSL this eve, otherwise,
the front will have a better chance of diurnal storm development
Sunday afternoon beyond this TAF valid period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    75 101  75  94 /  10  20  40  20
Hutchinson      75 100  73  92 /  10  30  30  20
Newton          76  99  74  92 /  10  20  30  20
ElDorado        75  99  75  92 /  10  20  40  20
Winfield-KWLD   75 101  76  95 /   0  10  20  20
Russell         73  96  70  92 /  20  30  20  20
Great Bend      74  98  71  95 /  10  30  20  20
Salina          77  98  74  93 /  20  30  20  20
McPherson       74  98  73  91 /  10  30  20  20
Coffeyville     75 100  75  96 /   0  10  20  20
Chanute         75  99  75  94 /   0  10  20  20
Iola            75  98  74  92 /   0  10  30  20
Parsons-KPPF    75  99  75  95 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ049-051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-
033-047-048-050.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...JMC



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