Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 281755
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1155 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH LEE TROUGHING AT THE
SURFACE. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO
THE 20S AND 30S THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENT COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TODAY AND
SATURDAY LOOK TO BE WARM...ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ABUNDANT SUN AND
SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP TEMPS REACH INTO THE 60S
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

THINGS WILL CHANGE ON SUNDAY AS A COLD AIRMASS IS DISLODGED BY A
WAVE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ENTER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEKEND AND START THE
WORK WEEK. WITH THE DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE...HAVE A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE...WITH A MORNING HIGH TEMPERATURE EXPECTED. WITH
THE MAIN WAVE ENERGY ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. HOWEVER...AS IT APPROACHES THE MORE
MOIST AIRMASS AS IT MOVES SOUTH...SOME PRECIPITATION COULD
DEVELOP...FEEL THIS WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF US AT THIS TIME
AND HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY. WILL WANT TO WATCH THIS PERIOD
THOUGH FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...IF GUIDANCE DOES EVOLVE TO SHOW
PRECIPITATION THE QUESTION WOULD BE IF IT`S LIQUID OR FROZEN. WILL
FINE TUNE IN LATER FORECASTS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

DECEMBER WILL START OFF COOL WITH MONDAY BEING WELL BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD QUICKLY...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
MODERATE BACK TO NEAR THE LOW 50 DEGREE NORMALS BY MID-WEEK. THE
NEXT CHANGE WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. WHILE THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES WITH TIMING...THE CURRENT
CONSENSUS SHOWS LIQUID PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
KANSAS THURSDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

AHHH...TROUBLE MAY BE BREWING OVER SE KS LATE TONIGHT & EARLY SAT
MORNING WHEN IFR STRATUS MAY SPREAD RAPIDLY NE ACRS SE KS. IT IS
LIKELY THAT A 1200FT BKN DECK MAY REACH KCNU ~08Z WITH ~800FT CIGS
LIKELY TOWARD DAYBREAK. CIGS MAY LOWER EVEN FURTHER INTO LIFR
COUNTRY 13-15Z. THE SUCCESSORS WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO WATCH THIS
SITUATION CLOSELY. SW WINDS SUSTAINED ~22KTS/25MPH WITH ~30KT
GUSTS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER SE KS UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING BUT WITH
A BROAD LWR-DECK TROF CREEPING TOWARD SE KS ONLY MARGINAL
DIMINISHMENT TO ~13KTS/15MPH SUSTAINED SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. IT`LL BE "CLEAR SAILING" ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION
WITH CLOUDINESS LIMITED TO CIRRUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  39  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      62  35  66  32 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          59  39  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        60  42  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  42  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         68  34  65  31 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      68  35  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          65  35  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       62  35  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     60  47  68  48 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         58  45  65  46 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            58  45  64  45 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    59  46  67  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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