000
FXUS63 KICT 191134
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
634 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

TOUGH FORECAST WAS MADE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT DUE TO THE
UNAVAILABILITY OF HRRR/00 UTC ECMWF AND RUC AFTER 0600 UTC DUE TO
PROBLEMS UPSTREAM. NONE OF THE REMAINDER OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
HAD MUCH OF A HANDLE ON ONGOING CONVECTION. NAM WAS PARTICULARLY
SUSPECT...ESPECIALLY WITH INITIALIZATION OF 850MB MOISTURE. BASED
ON 0000 UTC RADIOSONDE OBSERVATION AND OBSERVATIONAL DATASETS...
SEE LITTLE REASON WHY HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WILL NOT CONTINUE TO
ROLL EAST DURING THE DAY AIDED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION...INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE. EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES/WINDS DURING THE
DAY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. THINKING THAT PRECIPITATION
WILL TRANSITION TO EASTERN HALF BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH LULL IN
THE WESTERN HALF AROUND SUNSET. SEE NO REASON WHY STORMS WILL NOT
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AGAIN TONIGHT AND ROLL EAST.

THU REMAINS PROBLEMATIC...AS IT IS UNCLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
WILL BE OR LOW LONG IT WILL LINGER. LARGE POTENTIAL FOR ERROR ON
ALL FACETS OF THIS FORECAST. HAVE LEANED A BIT TOWARDS THE GFS
WHICH WAS THE LEAST WRONG GUIDANCE OUT OF THE BOX.

HAVE STAYED THE COURSE WITH DRY/WARMER/WINDIER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE BUILDS.
SOME HINT ON THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THAT FRONT MAY SAG
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUN/SUN
NIGHT. NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THESE CHANCES BUT IN ABSENCE OF
0000 UTC ECMWF WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. HAVE HEDGED
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT ABOVE INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON LAST
WARM PERIOD AND BEST GUIDANCE AT THESE TIME RANGES. TEMPERATURES IN
TRIPLE DIGITS APPEAR PROBABLE IN CENTRAL KS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

HIGH CLOUDS WILL FLOAT OVERHEAD THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO MID-
LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN KANSAS LATER TODAY AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    84  70  90  73 /  40  40  30  10
HUTCHINSON      87  69  91  72 /  40  50  20  10
NEWTON          85  68  89  72 /  40  40  30  10
ELDORADO        83  69  88  73 /  40  40  40  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  70  89  73 /  40  40  30  10
RUSSELL         89  68  94  71 /  50  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      89  68  93  72 /  50  50  10  10
SALINA          88  70  90  75 /  40  50  30  10
MCPHERSON       87  69  90  72 /  40  50  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  86  73 /  40  30  30  10
CHANUTE         88  68  84  72 /  40  30  30  10
IOLA            88  68  83  71 /  40  40  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  69  84  72 /  40  30  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$