Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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501
FXUS63 KICT 250814
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
314 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

An upper low over northeast Oklahoma early this morning, will slowly
eject eastward today, reaching central Missouri by 06Z tonight. A
few small clusters of showers should linger mainly to the east of
I-135 today, as vort lobes pinwheel around the upper low
circulation. The cyclonic low-mid level height field curvature
should allow low clouds to hang tough over central/eastern Kansas
today, and therefore, have reduced high temperatures accordingly.
Low clouds may linger tonight with possible stratus build-down,
according to a consensus of short range model data. This seems
plausible with a lack of a mechanism to scour the boundary layer
moisture out beneath a temperature inversion around the 800 mb
level.

The next upstream upper trough approaching southern California, per
6.5 um water vapor imagery, will dig into the desert southwest
today, then ejecting across the south-central Plains Sunday into
Sunday night. A consensus of model guidance has the warm sector
staying just south of the Kansas/Oklahoma border. However, fairly
strong 850 mb moisture transport with marginal elevated instability
targets south-central and southeast Kansas. Combined with moderate-
strong ascent with the upper trough, this should result in a fairly
widespread convective rainfall occurring mainly in the south.  A few
rain showers could linger in the east Monday morning, with dry
weather expected Monday afternoon and night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

The next in a series of upper troughs is progged to be digging over
the Southern Rockies Tuesday, before moving slowly eastward across
the Central/Southern Plains Tuesday night through Thursday. The
ECMWF and Canadian appeared to have better recent continuity and
agreement with this system compared to the 00Z/25th deterministic
GFS. The slower and deeper look to this upper trough should provide
a good chance for a widespread convective rainfall event across much
of Kansas. Locally heavy rainfall appears possible. Seasonal late
March temperatures are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Combo of IFR-MVFR ceilings with patchy SHRA will be the rule for
the rest of the night. MVFR should be the rule thru the morning
and most of the afternoon, with some clearing working into
KRSL/KGBD/KHUT late in the afternoon and KICT around sunset.
Appears unlikely that KSLN/KCNU would clear during this forecast
period. -Howerton

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Grassland fire danger will range from moderate to high, during
mainly the afternoon hours today through Monday. The next weather
system will move through the Southern Plains late Sunday through
Sunday night, with a good possibility for fairly widespread
convective rainfall in the south, with slightly lesser
probabilities in the north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    50  42  70  48 /  20   0  50  80
Hutchinson      48  40  68  46 /  20   0  40  80
Newton          49  41  66  46 /  30   0  30  80
ElDorado        52  42  68  48 /  30   0  30  80
Winfield-KWLD   53  42  72  50 /  20   0  50  80
Russell         49  38  64  42 /  10   0  30  60
Great Bend      49  38  65  42 /  10   0  40  70
Salina          48  40  65  45 /  20   0  20  70
McPherson       48  39  67  45 /  20   0  30  80
Coffeyville     56  43  72  51 /  40   0  20  80
Chanute         54  41  69  50 /  50  10  10  80
Iola            53  42  67  49 /  60  10  10  80
Parsons-KPPF    55  42  71  51 /  50  10  10  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...PJH
FIRE WEATHER...JMC



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