Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 292302
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
602 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TONIGHT-MON NIGHT:
AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMALS. DRY AIR
AND GOOD INSOLATION WILL ALLOW BIG TEMPERATURE REBOUND ON MON...SO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE STREAK WILL PERSIST. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER
MON NIGHT.

TUE-TUE NIGHT:
MOISTURE INCREASES ON TUE WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR OK BORDER. MODEST CAPE WOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH LITTLE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND ONLY MODEST UPPER LIFT...GOOD CHANCE THAT LIFT
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO BREAK CAP. CHANCES WILL EXPAND A BIT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH TUE NIGHT...BUT PATTERN STILL DOES
NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

WED-WED NIGHT:

LACK OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND FAIRLY STOUT CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE
CONVECTION FOR MOST OF DAYLIGHT HOURS. FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES IN
MODELS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY REACHING FAR NORTHWEST
SECTIONS LATE AFTERNOON. SLOWER TIMING AND DRY DAYLIGHT FORECAST
SEEMS MORE PROBABLE...BUT CONSENSUS FORCED KEEPING A MENTION IN
RUSSELL COUNTY AFTER 2100 UTC. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE ON THE
ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KILOGRAM...WITH 30KTS OF BULK SHEAR...SO IF
SOMETHING DEVELOPS...PROBABILITY OF SEVERE IS PRETTY GOOD EARLY
ON. CHANCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES DURING
THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. BIGGEST CONCERN
THIS PERIOD IS FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH INCREASING
MIXING/SURFACE GRADIENT AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. FIRE WEATHER
SECTION HAS MORE DETAILS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UNCERTAINTY HAS INCREASED THIS PERIOD WITH ECMWF/GFS DIVERGING
EVEN MORE OVER THE PAST TWO RUNS WITH TIMING/DEPTH OF SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH ZONAL FLOW. WHERE/HOW DEEP/WHAT TRACK THIS WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURE WILL TAKE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. AT
THIS POINT MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL THEN
SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
SLIDES EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24HRS.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND WILL LET RED FLAG WARNING
EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. ON MON...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...WITH ONLY VERY
HIGH GFDI IN CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS. MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS ON TUE WILL FURTHER REDUCE THREAT.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL RED FLAG DAY IS IN THE MAKING FOR WED WITH 20+
KT SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS.
FORECAST GFDI ROUGHLY NORTH OF A HUTCHINSON TO EUREKA LINE IS
EXTREME. WILL HOLD OFF ON HOISTING WATCH UNTIL EVENT GETS CLOSER
GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTY. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    41  73  47  81 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      37  73  46  80 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          40  71  47  80 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        40  72  49  80 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   41  75  48  81 /  10   0   0  20
RUSSELL         40  78  46  80 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      40  77  46  80 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          38  75  45  79 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       38  73  46  80 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     38  70  48  77 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         36  69  47  77 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            35  68  47  77 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    36  69  47  77 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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