Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 250902
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
402 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Weak shortwave impulse and weak moisture transport continues to
overrun the quasi-stationary frontal boundary currently located
across SRN KS near KICT.  This has led to scattered showers and
thunderstorms mainly to the west of I-135, with the most widespread
activity over Central KS this morning. Expect this area of showers
to continue for the morning hours before diminishing by midday as
this weak impulse lifts to the NE of the forecast area.

The next concern will be renewed chances of convection late this
afternoon/tonight along the stalled frontal boundary with an
uncapped environment expected to remain across SRN KS.  A shortwave
currently located over NRN NM will lift NE today and lead to another
round of increased moisture transport and lift over the top of this
stalled boundary for an additional chance of showers and
thunderstorms across most of SRN KS this evening and tonight.

A number of ingredients are expected to come together again to
produce the potential for training or possibly backbuilding
thunderstorms in the vicinity of the frontal zone this evening.  A
deep  moist environment, an increasing nighttime low-level jet,
persistent SW flow along the slow moving front and persistent lift
underneath the right entrance region of upper jet. High precipitable
water values of 160-180 percent of normal, suggests a threat of
locally very heavy rainfall rates, along with a threat of localized
flash flooding. The greatest threat area for this afternoon through
tonight appears to be along the KS turnpike from Wellington, to KICT
to KEMP. Think a severe thunderstorm threat also exists for the late
afternoon into the early evening hours, as bulk shear around 50-55
kts and rather impressive directional shear may lead to a few
discrete supercells with large hail and damaging winds the main
concern, before the storms become multicell clusters later in the
evening. Could even see a slim funnel/tornado chance, given the
directional shear, but think small 0-1km cape values will prelude a
better tornado threat.  Placement of the boundary may be the key, in
whether supercells can rotate enough for a tornado chance.

As the overnight progresses, think the heavy rainfall/flash flooding
threat will be the main concern with lots of moisture overrunning the
boundary with moisture transport remaining. will have to keep an eye
on srn KS especially for areas hit hard by recent heavy rainfall.

Fri: Lots of model differences on how Fri will play out, as models
differ on whether the quasi stationary boundary will washout, or
whether remnants will linger over Southern KS.  The GFS washes the
front out, lifting the moisture back to the north across northern
KS.  While the nam/wrf keeps remnants over SRN KS.  With the
uncertainty have gone with a solid chance pop across the forecast,
as the SW monsoonal flow keeps bringing weak impulses across the
area in the very moist environment.  Leaned a little bit towards the
GFs for Fri night, with higher pops along and north of I-70 as the
GFS does hint at some convection over the high plains dropping E-SE
out of NW KS into Central KS for Fri night.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Plan on keeping pops around for the rest of the weekend as
moist southerly flow will remain over the plains.  but think shower
and thunderstorm chances for the weekend will be more widely
scattered storm chances, or even nocturnally driven storm chances.

Could see the scattered storm chances continue into the beginning of
the week as well, as the SW monsoonal flow continues.  Do not think
that the storm chances for Mon-Tue will be as widespread, as warming
temps build across the area and lack of convergence along any sort
of boundary will be lacking.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

A frontal boundary will remain quasi-stationary across south-
central through east-central Kansas overnight into Thursday.
Storms overnight will be most concentrated near this front in
south-central/southeast KS and could affect the CNU...ICT and HUT
terminals. Heavy rain/gusty winds are possible with these storms.
Stratus will continue to develop/expand in the vicinity of the
front with light winds and a very moist boundary layer.

Showers may linger Thursday morning. Otherwise, stratus is expected
to burn off toward midday Thursday. Diurnal heating, frontal
convergence, and upper support should lead to scattered strong-
severe storm development near the front and any outflow boundaries
late Thursday afternoon, which may increase in coverage during the
evening hours, as a southerly low-level jet focuses strong
moisture transport.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    84  67  84  69 /  60  70  30  20
Hutchinson      78  65  81  68 /  60  60  40  30
Newton          80  65  81  67 /  60  70  30  30
ElDorado        84  66  83  68 /  60  60  40  20
Winfield-KWLD   88  68  87  69 /  50  50  30  20
Russell         74  61  77  64 /  60  50  40  40
Great Bend      74  62  79  65 /  60  60  40  40
Salina          77  65  80  68 /  50  60  40  40
McPherson       77  64  80  67 /  60  60  40  40
Coffeyville     93  70  88  69 /  40  50  30  20
Chanute         87  69  86  69 /  50  50  30  20
Iola            86  69  85  69 /  60  60  30  30
Parsons-KPPF    91  69  86  69 /  40  50  30  20

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...JMC



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