Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 130746
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
246 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Showers and storms over SW KS continue to diminish as they drop E-SE
towards south central KS. Warming cloud tops and storms outrunning
the main instability axis will lead to the showers diminishing or
ending before they make it into south central KS early this morning,
with just some remnant cloud debris for the morning hours.

Latest short term RAP suggests another area of moisture transport
over ern OK may lift further north, possibly leading to some showers
developing over NE OK and possibly into extreme SE KS by around
sunrise. So will leave a low pop in for the morning hours for this
chance.

After this morning chance in SE KS, expect another dry forecast for
the daytime hours and most of the evening hours, as instability and
moisture transport will once again remain focused over the high
plains. Latest GFS and NAM-WRF both suggest another impulse will
move across the Rockies into the high plains late this evening, as
convection develops over the high plains, with this convection
developing into some sort of forward propagating complex of storms
moving E-SE towards south central KS late tonight.  Think some of
this convection may clip areas SW of ICT late tonight or early Mon
morning. So will keep a low pop in for this chance.

The progressive zonal flow pattern looks to continue and keep things
unsettled through the beginning of the week. Think some showers and
storms may be around for the morning hours on Mon, but think most of
the daytime hours will remain dry as a warmer elevated mixed layer
increases over the area.  This mid level warm advection and moisture
transport increases enough for a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms for most locations for Mon night.

Even with the storm chances continuing for the beginning of the
week, expect to see a slow warming trend back towards normal.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Pattern looks to shift more southwesterly for Tue thru Thu, with
shower and thunderstorm chances shifting further north over northern
KS and southern Neb for both Tue and Wed afternoon.

The pattern looks to remain unsettled through the end of the week,
as a surface boundary meanders across the region.  This will lead to
off and on periods of showers and thunderstorms.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Potential for MVFR cigs that may be as low as ~1,300ft remains a
concern early Sun morning. (Perhaps as soon as 08Z). An area of
TSRA ~40NM wide extending from Central Nebraska to Southwest KS
has been moving SE ~30kts. With most of the convection occurring
over far West & Southwest KS moving toward KDDC have opted to
leave VCTS out of the KGBD & KRSL terminals. With richer moisture
continuing to stream NE across KS cigs would be slow to return to
VFR status in all areas, perhaps not til ~18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    84  68  86  70 /  10  10  20  30
Hutchinson      84  67  86  69 /  10  10  20  30
Newton          83  66  85  68 /  10  10  20  20
ElDorado        82  66  84  69 /  10  10  20  30
Winfield-KWLD   83  67  86  70 /  10  20  30  40
Russell         84  66  88  68 /  10  10  20  20
Great Bend      83  66  87  68 /  10  10  20  30
Salina          86  67  88  70 /  10  10  20  20
McPherson       84  66  86  69 /  10  10  20  20
Coffeyville     80  66  85  70 /  30  20  30  50
Chanute         80  65  84  70 /  20  10  20  30
Iola            80  65  83  69 /  20  10  20  20
Parsons-KPPF    80  66  84  70 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...EPS



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