Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 240811
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
311 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST-CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THROUGH ABOUT 11Z BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 305K SURFACE...DRIVEN BY A
50-55 KNOT 850 MB JET. THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF
SOUTHEAST KS...AS A WARMER POCKET OF AIR SPREADS IN ON THE 305K
SURFACE. AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING NORTHWEST OF
THE KS TURNPIKE...NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF SURFACE LOW TRACK...WHERE
LOW-LEVELS SHOULD BECOME SATURATED FROM MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/UPSLOPE FLOW.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW...AND SOUTHWARD TRAILING DRYLINE...WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
TO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY EARLY THIS EVE. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION MAY
AFFECT CENTRAL KS THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID-LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION. CAPPING AROUND 800 MB...MAY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY
AROUND 21-22Z OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS TO ALLOW SURFACE-BASED UPDRAFTS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE STORMS WILL
NOT HAVE MUCH RESIDENT TIME IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS BEFORE MOVING EAST
OUT OF AREA DUE TO STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 0-6KM WINDS.
THEREFORE...THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AREA LATE THIS PM/EVE SHOULD BE
JUST EAST OF OUR FAR SOUTHEAST KS COUNTIES.

MOSTLY CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...WHILE THE COLD
FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SLIGHTLY RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KS AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCAPES OF 1000-1700
J/KG MAINLY CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WED PM/EVE...WITH 40-50
KNOTS OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR. EXPECTING CAP TO BREAK
OVER SOUTHEAST KS TOWARD 21-00Z TIMEFRAME...AS MID-LEVEL COOLING AND
STRONG FORCING ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING STRONG SHORTWAVE. STRONG
FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD ALLOW A QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER...WITH A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH HAIL/WINDS. THE STORMS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH
OUT OF THE AREA BY MID WED EVE...WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR
SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM-WRF INDICATE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS FEATURE COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN KS...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE AMPLIFIED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES...AND A LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE
WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SOME. A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD AFFECT FAR EASTERN KS INTO MISSOURI FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS A FINAL SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE EASTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TROUGH. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY...WILL MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BY SUNDAY/MONDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

A CLUSTER OF TSRA COVERING MUCH OF SEDGWICK AND MOST OF BUTLER
COUNTIES IN SC KS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AROUND 30KTS/35MPH. PER
THESE TRENDS HAVE REMOVED TSRA FROM KICT & KHUT TERMINALS FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. PRESENT MOVEMENT SHOULD TAKE THE TSRA JUST N OF
KCNU BUT AM WATCHING CLOSELY. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TURNS TOWARD
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS & VSBYS ACRS MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY FROM
09Z-15Z...AS WARM FRONT LIFTS DUE N OVER AREAS PRIMIARLY ALONG &
E OF I-35 IN RESPONSE TO WEAK SFC LOW MOVG E/NE. THE LOW SHOULD
REACH THE NC OK/SC KS BORDER ~12Z. SUCH MOVEMENT WOULD CAUSE THE
FRONT TO PIVOT IN A COUNTER CLOCKWISE MANNER OVER CNTRL KS ~15Z
WHICH WOULD PLACE THE WARM FRONT FROM ERN KS THRU CNTRL MO WHILE A
COLD FRONT RAPIDLY DEVELOPS FROM WRN NEBRASKA...THRU WRN KS...TO
WRN OK. WINDS ACRS ALL OF CNTRL & SC KS TERMINALS WOULD ABRUPTLY
BACK AROUND TO THE N THEN NW BY 18Z AND INCREASE TO 17KTS/20MPH
SUSTAINED. RAPID IMPROVEMENT WOULD OCCUR OVER KRSL...KHUT & KICT
WHERE DRY-SLOTTING WOULD COMMENCE ~18Z BY WHICH TIME ALL TERMINALS
WOULD RETURN TO VFR STATUS WITH KRSL LKLY P6SM SKC BTWN 18Z & 20Z.
KSLN SHOULD REACH VFR STATUS ~21Z. KCNU MAY DROP INTO MVFR COUNTRY
BUT ONLY FROM ~15Z-18Z WHEN CIGS ~2,500FT ARE POSSIBLE BUT QUICKLY
RETURN TO VFR STATUS BY 20Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE AMPLIFIED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES...AND A LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE
WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SOME. A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD AFFECT FAR EASTERN KS INTO MISSOURI FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS A FINAL SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE EASTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TROUGH. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY...WILL MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BY SUNDAY/MONDAY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  43  68  36 /  10   0  20  10
HUTCHINSON      71  42  68  33 /  10   0  10  10
NEWTON          71  43  67  35 /  20   0  20  10
ELDORADO        72  43  68  36 /  20   0  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   75  43  68  37 /  10   0  40  30
RUSSELL         69  37  63  30 /  20   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      71  39  64  31 /  20   0  10  10
SALINA          67  39  65  32 /  30   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       70  41  67  33 /  20   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     75  43  71  39 /  20  10  60  50
CHANUTE         72  42  69  37 /  30   0  50  30
IOLA            71  42  69  37 /  40   0  50  30
PARSONS-KPPF    74  43  69  38 /  20  10  60  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067-082-091.

&&

$$


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