Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 191741
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1141 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING UNDERNEATH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG GIVEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS BUILD DOWN.  CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTH...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...MAY HINDER WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG IN THE SOUTH BUT WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS. CENTRAL KS MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR PARTIAL
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING DEVELOPS.
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH BETTER MIXING IS PROGGED WEST OF THE FLINT
HILLS.

LEE TROUGHING/SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURE
MODIFICATION THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS WHILE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
FAVOR RAIN AT THIS TIME. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE COULD
DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND THE FLINT HILLS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTENING OCCURRING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN STATES AROUND MIDWEEK...BEFORE
IT EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MODELS WERE
FAIRLY SIMILAR ON TIMING...HOWEVER THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE UPPER
TROUGH MORESO THAN THE GFS. RIGHT NOW...AT FACE VALUE...THE ECMWF
DRY SLOTS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA...AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT
PRECIPITATION FORMING JUST EAST OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE GFS KEEPS
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF OUR AREA. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIABILITY AND
THAT THIS IS STILL 6-7 DAYS AWAY...UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST DETAILS
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS ABOVE AVERAGE. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW IN CENTRAL KS
ON THURSDAY. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN NOW AND LATE
NEXT WEEK...SO THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY
WILL WANT TO CHECK BACK FOR LATER UPDATES ON OUR THINKING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS LOW CEILINGS. LIFR AND IFR CEILINGS
ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND BECOMING SOUTHERLY. THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT WILL
INCREASE TOMORROW WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE CEILING HEIGHTS
SLIGHTLY WITH SOME MIXING. AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE...BUT
WIDESPREAD DENSE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    39  30  46  36 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      38  28  46  35 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          37  29  45  35 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        38  30  46  36 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   40  30  47  37 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         44  25  48  31 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      40  26  49  32 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          37  29  46  34 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       37  29  46  34 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     41  31  46  36 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         39  30  45  35 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            38  30  45  35 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    40  31  46  36 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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