Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 111155
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
555 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 311 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

Today-tonight:
Today will be the last mild day as arctic front plows across the
forecast area. NAM timing appears to be fairly reasonable with
minor tweaks. Sharply colder air in the wake of the front will
result in significantly falling temperatures this afternoon in
Central KS. Temperatures will likely reach the 70s ahead of the
front along OK border in South Central KS and a fair part of
Southeast KS. A record high is possible at KCNU as the current
record is 69 in 1898. Cold air advection and gusty winds will
persist into the night.

Thursday-Friday:

Dry and below normal temperatures are expected on Thursday with
precipitation gradually developing towards daybreak Friday in far
Southeast KS. Thermal profiles still suggest light freezing rain
which will spread northwest during the daylight hours on Friday.
Northern edge of the precipitation will more likely be freezing
sprinkles or drizzle with only a tenth or so anticipated in
Southeast KS as temperatures hover around freezing. Precipitation
ramps up Friday night as right entrance region of upper jet moves
through. GFS and ECMWF both suggest some MUCAPE along OK border
after midnight and included a slight chance of thunder with
potential for changeover to rain in extreme Southeast KS during
the night. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

The warming Friday night will continue during the day Saturday,
which will result in a borderline rain/freezing rain event for
South Central and parts of Central KS. This will likely limit
glaze accumulations. As temperatures cool Saturday night, freezing
rain will once again become dominate precipitation type over all
but extreme Southeast KS Sunday morning. Precipitation chances
will be on the increase as upper wave gets closer and surface low
develops on the front. Temperatures will likely increase again on
Sunday with model consensus showing temperatures climbing above
freezing on Sunday. Lack of substantial cold air advection during
the event will likely allow latent heating and mixing/drag from
heavier precipitation to moderate shallow cold surface layer.
Cooling Sunday night will shift freezing precipitation back across
a good part of the forecast area, with precipitation finally
ending on Monday evening in Central KS -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 555 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

Low-lvl wind shear fm 50-55kts wl agn be the major hazard til 16Z
by which time sufficient mixing wl have occurred to eliminate the
inversion. Sly winds wl of course incr as a pre cold-frontal trof
apchs w/ stgst winds ~22kts w/ ~30kt gusts, occurring acrs SE KS.
An Arctic front that`ll surge almosrt due S wl cause a pronounced
wshft w/ nly winds arriving Cntrl KS late this mrng, SC KS late
this aftn & SE KS early this eve. Sustained 17-22kts are lkly aft
frontal passage. At this time all cloudiness should be cirriform.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    64  23  37  21 /   0   0   0  10
Hutchinson      60  19  34  18 /   0   0   0  10
Newton          59  20  33  18 /   0   0   0  10
ElDorado        63  23  36  20 /   0  10   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   69  27  40  23 /   0   0   0  10
Russell         50  14  30  13 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      56  15  32  14 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          54  17  31  16 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       56  18  32  17 /   0   0   0  10
Coffeyville     72  33  42  27 /   0  10  10  20
Chanute         69  28  38  23 /   0  10  10  10
Iola            67  27  37  22 /   0  10  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    71  31  40  26 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...EPS



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