Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 171722
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1122 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 248 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Today & Tonight:
At 2 AM CST, the Canadian High that has produced such hideously
cold weather since Mon morning was centered over Southeast KS &
Northeast OK. Winds have shifted toward the S/SW but are light &
with clear skies, temperatures have dropped to around zero across
most of the KICT forecast area. The weakening surface high will
continue to drift S/SE today & tonight, & would approach the Gulf
Coast early Thu morning. The departing surface high would operate
in conjunction with a weak surface trough developing from Eastern
CO to Eastern NM to enable S-SW surface flow to slowly increase.
Strong veering thru 700mb would further encourage warmer weather
across KS, especially across Western KS, but with such a cold
start, most areas would struggle to reach 30 to 35 this afternoon.

Thu-Fri Night:
It`ll be much warmer as a weak eastward-moving mid-level shortwave
approaches the CO/KS border. This would induce the lower-deck trof
from Eastern CO to Eastern NM to strengthen considerably. Coupled
with fairly strong mid-level regime highs will take off with Thu`s
highs likely reaching the lower 50s west of K-14 while Southeast
KS rebounds into the mid 40s. Highs ranging 50 to 60 are likely on
Fri with the warmer temps at KGBD & KRSL.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

This Weekend:
After a warm & dry Sat & Sat Night, precipitation may arrive
Sunday morning as a 2nd & much deeper mid-upper wave digs across
the Desert Southwest. This would induce pronounced lower-deck
cyclogenesis close to the TX/OK panhandles Sunday morning. As the
strengthening cyclone moves east, then northeast, across KS
Sunday & Sunday Night a cold front will surge across the state &
may find sufficient moisture to produce scattered light rain on
Sunday. The onsetting cold advection arriving Sunday Night should
be sufficient to produce a changeover from light rain to light
snow Sunday evening. The system is a quick-hitter, with the
continually strengthening cyclone crossing the Mid MS Valley on
Mon. The chances for light rain/light snow should be confined to
the late Sat Night-Sunday Night timeframe. This cold front isn`t
nearly as strong.

Mon-Tue:
Though not as warm, there`ll be nice weather to start the next
work-week with highs still reaching 45 to 50 both Mon & Tue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Mostly sunny skies and VFR conditions are expected to dominate the
region today and overnight tonight. Light southerly winds will
continue as well. No adverse weather is expected over the next 24
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    33  17  47  25 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      33  16  48  24 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          31  16  44  25 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        30  17  44  26 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   33  18  47  26 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         35  16  52  24 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      36  16  54  25 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          32  15  47  25 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       32  15  46  24 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     30  17  44  26 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         29  15  42  25 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            28  15  41  25 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    29  15  43  25 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...ELM



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