Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 150746
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
246 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Upper ridge is currently centered over the central Rockies with a
shortwave tracking across the eastern Great Lakes. There remains a
plume of mid level moisture and convectively induced circulation
over eastern CO which is evident via water vapor imagery and
regional 88d mosaic.

Still feel the better shower/storm chances will be tied to the
mid/upper circulation over eastern CO with this feature expected
to drift slowly east and northeast tonight into Sun. Even though
models have a similar track to the upper impulse, lifting it over
nw KS and into western Nebraska, there are some discrepancies
with regards to timing. The GFS and NAM are slightly faster
compared to the ECMWF. Given the decent model agreement on track,
feel confident that the better precip chances will remain west and
northwest of the forecast area through Monday.

Slow warming trend will commence today and continue into the start
of the work week, with mid 90s expected area wide by Mon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Medium range models remain consistent in tracking shortwave energy
across southern Canada Sun night into Mon which will push a cold
front across the northern Plains Mon into Tue. Both ECMWF and GFS
hang this front up well north of the forecast area. At the same
time, upper ridging will expand across the central/southern Plains
into the Mississippi Valley. This will allow the warming trend to
continue with upper 90s to around 100 by Wed with 100s looking
common area wide by Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Cannot rule out a few isolated showers/thunderstorms overnight.
Predictability is low so did not include in TAFs. Additionally,
could see lower ceilings and/or visibilities later tonight into
Saturday morning areawide, due to moist low-levels, diurnal
cooling and weak upslope flow. Covered this threat with 4-5 SM
BR for now. For tomorrow, could see afternoon and evening hit-or-
miss showers/storms areawide.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    91  71  93  71 /  10  10  10   0
Hutchinson      91  70  93  70 /  10  10  10   0
Newton          90  70  92  69 /  10  10  10   0
ElDorado        90  70  91  69 /  10  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   92  70  92  70 /  10  10  10   0
Russell         92  68  93  70 /  10  10  10  20
Great Bend      92  68  92  70 /  10  20  10  20
Salina          94  71  95  71 /   0  10   0   0
McPherson       92  68  93  69 /  10  10  10   0
Coffeyville     91  69  92  69 /  10   0   0   0
Chanute         90  68  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
Iola            90  67  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    90  69  92  69 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...ADK



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