Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 141207
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
707 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

This Morning:
A weak mid-level shortwave is moving east over primarily Southeast
SD while a well-defined region of moist isentropic ascent in the
315-320K layer is spreading over southern Nebraska & northern KS.
Both have combined to produce a cluster of thunderstorms over far
southeast Nebraska & northeast KS. The lowest ~10,000ft of the air
mass is quite dry so rainfalls should be minimal. Regardless, with
the mid-level shortwave continuing to scoot east, most of the
convection would remain NE of KICT Country.

This Afternoon:
A strong, positively-tilted upper-deck wave that during the night
extends from Northern Saskatchewan to just off the WA/OR coast
will dig sharply as it approaches the Great Basin. This character
will eject a somewhat stronger mid-level shortwave east toward the
the Central Rockies. A surface low will develop close to the CO/KS
border to induce stronger southerly flow across KS. As such, it`ll
be hotter with highs reaching the upper 90s in Central KS & ~95 in
South-Central KS.

Tonight:
With a more assertive southerly flow lows would likewise be warmer
than the past 3 or nights. As the 2nd mid-level shortwave crosses
the Southern Rockies moist advection would increase ahead of a SE
moving cold front venturing toward, & perhaps into, Northern
Nebraska. How far SE the front will progress is still in question,
but if thunderstorms can develop, they would do so over Northwest
Kansas & Western Nebraska.

This Weekend:
The "stars of the show" continue to be the western U.S. upper-deck
wave & its attendant cold front. With broad & STRONG mid-upper
deck ridging nearly covering the southeastern half of the U.S. the
upper-deck wave would lift & surge NE across the Northern Plains &
in the process assume a negative tilt as it crosses the Dakotas
late Sat night. This would cause the attendant SE-moving cold
front to move further into Nebraska & Northwest KS late Fri night
& Sat. The front should decelerate as it ventures further into KS
Sat Night when thunderstorms should increase.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

The upper-deck wave`s behavior would likely cause the front to
stall in an almost E/W manner as it approaches the KS/OK border on
Sun. This is further south than was depicted the past 2 nights.
With the strong mid-upper-deck wave continuing to surge NE into
Ontario Sun Night the front would likely weaken on Mon. Richer
moisture pooling along the decelerating but weakening front would
induce scattered thunderstorms to continue for much of the
upcoming weak.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 706 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period.
Isolated elevated showers are possible at KRSL/KSLN for the first
couple of hours of forecast. This warm air advection induced
precip should wane fairly quickly this morning. Gusty winds are
expected from good mixing and increasing surface pressure
gradient this afternoon. Winds diminish a bit this evening.
Another round of elevated precipitation is possible towards the
end of the forecast at KRSL/KGBD. This has been a peristent
signal from models for several days. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    94  69  93  71 /   0   0   0  10
Hutchinson      96  68  92  70 /  10  10  10  10
Newton          94  68  92  70 /  10   0   0  10
ElDorado        92  68  92  70 /  10   0   0  20
Winfield-KWLD   93  69  92  71 /   0   0   0  10
Russell         98  69  94  69 /  10  10  20  10
Great Bend      97  68  93  69 /  10  10  20  10
Salina          97  70  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
McPherson       95  68  92  70 /  10  10  10  10
Coffeyville     90  67  91  70 /   0   0   0  20
Chanute         88  66  89  69 /   0   0   0  20
Iola            88  66  89  68 /  10   0   0  20
Parsons-KPPF    89  67  90  70 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...PJH



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