Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 241646
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1146 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

In the near-term, will carry a wind advisory for the Flint Hills
and southeastern Kansas this morning, where a strengthened
pressure gradient and steepening surface-850 mb lapse rates should
allow for occasional gusts to around 45 mph, as stronger winds
aloft mix downward to the surface.

An upper low over far southeastern Colorado early this morning,
is progged to slide into western Oklahoma by late this afternoon.
The leading edge of marginal gulf moisture return (mid-upper 50s
surface dewpoints) was near the Red River early this morning. This
low-level moisture is expected to advect northward into eastern
Kansas Today, roughly along/east of Interstate 135 in our forecast
area. Scattered clusters of thunderstorms may develop toward
midday east of I-135 in the strong moisture transport/upper
diffluent flow regime. This activity may grow upscale into a QLCS,
as it shifts east into Missouri during the afternoon. These
storms may pose a large hail/damaging wind threat. Other, more
isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across South-
Central Kansas/Flint Hills, within a mid-level dry slot, on the
northeast periphery of the upper low where strong diurnal heating
is realized. The Rap and other hi-res models hint at a triple
point/dryline over south- central KS, which allows surface winds
to weaken/back to southeasterly by mid-late afternoon with very
steep 0-2 km lapse rates nosing in from the southwest. With SBCAPE
around 1500 j/kg, strong deep layer shear and steepened low-mid
level lapse rates, a few low topped supercells are possible across
South-Central KS/Flint Hills in a potential cold core setup.
These storms would be capable of large hail, a brief tornado or
two, and isolated severe wind gusts. The upper low will track
east-northeastward across Oklahoma tonight and into Missouri on
Saturday. The most likely area for showers/storms will be
southeast Kansas tonight into Saturday morning, within the
deformation/wrap-around zone of the upper low.

The next fast moving shortwave trough is progged to move eastward
across Kansas/Oklahoma Sunday into Sunday night. Marginal Gulf
moisture is progged to rapidly return north as this system
approaches. This will support scattered to numerous
showers/thunderstorms as the wave moves through, with the most
widespread activity favored in southeast Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The medium range models show another upper trough digging into
the southwest early in the week, forming into a closed low. This
system is projected to be a slower moving system compared to it`s
two predecessors. There is significant spread between the GEFS
ensemble members, although the deterministic 00z/25th GFS and
ECMWF were in fair agreement with the upper low track/timing. A
blend approach of the medium range guidance allows this slow-
moving upper system to move east across the Central/Southern
Plains Wednesday into Thursday, however the exact track/timing are
subject to some adjustments by future runs, given the large
spread in the ensembles beyond Tuesday. A slower moving system
should yield a decent chance for gulf moisture return, along with
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be near seasonal
averages for late March.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Main aviation concern will be storms this afternoon and lowering
ceilings tonight.

Storms are expected to develop in the next couple of hours
just east of I-135 and am currently going with the thinking they
will be just east of KICT. So as far as daytime convection, feel
KCNU will have the best chance generally after 20z. Cold front
will surge through the area as the powerful upper low tracks east.
This will flip winds around to the north and also usher-in some
MVFR ceilings. This front should move through KRSL by 23z and KICT
after 00z. Confidence is high in widespread MVFR ceilings, and
some IFR can`t be ruled out, especially west of I-135 tonight.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 429 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Southerly winds gusting to 30-40 mph, above normal temperatures
and near 100% cured grasslands will result in very high to extreme
fire danger from late this morning into this afternoon. The area
of greatest concern at this time is South-Central Kansas, where
minimum relative humidities in the 20-30% range are expected. We
have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning there,
and expanded westward into South-Central Kansas from late this
morning through late this afternoon. Cooler air will spread into
the region tonight into Saturday, lessening the fire danger.
However, northwest winds of 10-20 mph will still result in high
fire danger.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    77  47  62  43 /  30  40  10   0
Hutchinson      76  44  61  41 /  30  30  10   0
Newton          75  44  59  42 /  30  40  10   0
ElDorado        76  46  61  43 /  40  40  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   77  47  63  44 /  30  40  10   0
Russell         71  40  59  39 /  40  20  10   0
Great Bend      71  40  61  39 /  30  20  10   0
Salina          76  44  59  41 /  40  40  10   0
McPherson       76  43  59  40 /  30  40  10   0
Coffeyville     74  50  63  44 /  40  60  40   0
Chanute         73  49  61  44 /  40  70  50   0
Iola            73  49  60  44 /  40  70  50  10
Parsons-KPPF    73  50  62  44 /  40  60  50   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for KSZ067>070-082-
083-091>094-098.

Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ053-069>072-
093>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...JMC



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