Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 230906
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
406 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Forecast Highlight: Severe thunderstorms possible thru Wed.

An upper-deck low set up camp over the SE Alberta/SW Saskatchewan
suring the night. The upper low will remain nearly stationary over
this region while an upper-deck trof strengthens from MT to the SW
CA coast. This would keep the sfc low positioned over primarily SE
CO & NE NM. This would continue to enable RICH moisture to stream
N across all of KICT Country. With little change in the overall
pattern am having doubts the dry line will make much progress east
with the boundary positioned over the Southwestern Plains. The dry
line may begin to push E on Tue, perhaps extending from just N of
KDDC to W TX Tue Afternoon & Evening. A fairly well-defined axis
of extreme instablility will continue to reside from Srn Nebraska,
thru the Wrn half of KS & OK, to W TX. Deep-layer directional
shear is impressive acrs nearly all of KS but with 6-KM bulk shear
most pronounced from Wrn KS to along the NM/TX border the greatest
risk for supercells would remain in these areas today & Tue,
although the severe threat should spread slowly E toward Central
KS Tue & Wed. For our CWA the greatest threat would be large hail,
likely golfballs, with the threat greatest Tue Afternoon & Evening
as well as Wed Afternoon & Evening. During these periods a few
tornadoes may occur along the Wrn corridor of our forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Medium range models agree fairly well with upper pattern through
Friday, pushing a compact shortwave E that`ll reach Nebraska & Wrn
KS Fri Afternoon & Evening. They still diverge on Sat with the GFS
a bit faster the NE lift of the shortwave, placing it over the ND/
MN border Sat Afternoon whereas the NAM only lifts it to Ern SD.
Unfortunately the surface dryline/front position remains nebulous
at best. Regardless, continued unsettled and stormy weather will
continue at most locations for most periods. The inherited
forecast has been kept intact.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

MVFR CIGS are expected generally west of the Kansas turnpike
early Monday morning. The south to southeast winds will remain
occasionally gusty over central Kansas early in the night before
decreasing a bit toward sunrise. Widely scattered early morning
convection is possible, initially developing or moving into the
I-135 corridor, and then moving east-southeast into parts of
southeast Kansas later in the morning. MVFR CIGS are expected
to lift to VFR by midday across the area with slight increase
in the gusty south winds. After any lingering morning elevated
convection, chances for renewed surface based storms will be
most probable west of the I-135 corridor by late afternoon or
evening. Some of this activity could be locally strong and severe.

KED


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    80  68  83  68 /  40  40  40  40
Hutchinson      80  67  84  68 /  40  40  40  40
Newton          79  67  82  68 /  40  40  40  40
ElDorado        78  68  82  68 /  40  40  40  40
Winfield-KWLD   80  68  82  68 /  60  40  30  40
Russell         82  64  84  68 /  30  40  30  30
Great Bend      82  64  85  68 /  30  40  30  20
Salina          80  66  83  69 /  40  40  40  40
McPherson       80  66  83  68 /  40  40  40  40
Coffeyville     79  67  81  69 /  40  40  30  40
Chanute         79  67  81  69 /  40  40  40  30
Iola            79  67  81  69 /  40  40  50  30
Parsons-KPPF    79  67  81  69 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...KED



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