Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 122355
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
655 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Widespread showers and isolated storms are currently affecting
central/northern OK and is related to the upper impulse, evident
on water vapor imagery, that came out of the desert southwest.
Very moist low level upslope flow also aiding in some shower/storm
development over nw KS.

Current thinking is that the bulk of the shower and storm activity
will remain over far southern KS and especially OK tonight as the
upper wave continues to slide east. Should also see a cluster of
storms track out of nw KS and dive southeast across west-central
KS tonight. Will keep with the thinking that most of this will
stay west of the forecast area tonight. Will continue with a
mostly dry forecast for Sunday as there really isn`t a focus for
daytime development. The upper impulse will be pushing into Ozark
region with no surface feature to key on. Mostly likely scenario
will be to see some afternoon development over the high Plains as
unseasonably moist airmass remains in place.

For Mon into Tue, there is some model agreement in a weak upper
perturbation moving out of the central/southern Rockies Mon and
across northern OK which may provide some small precip chances.
There is also agreement that upper flow will become more
southwesterly as we head into Tue. This will increase mid level
theta-e advection and increase shower/storm chances.

Below normal temps still looking likely through these periods as
we approach the 90 degree mark by Tue for much of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Pattern looks to remain fairly unsettled through much of the week
as unseasonably strong mid/upper flow remains over the Plains.
The GFS is more robust in upper troughing over the Great Basin
into the Rockies and would result in more widespread shower/storm
chances for Wed-Thu. With lack of feature to focus on for precip
chances, confidence remain low through these extended periods.
Afternoon highs should continue to remain at least a degree or two
below normal as they approach the upper 80s to around 90 through
most of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

MVFR cigs are possible for areas W of the I-35/I-135 corridor very
early Sun morning starting ~09Z as obviously richer lower-deck
moisture migrates N across Wrn KS. "Low-end" MVFR cigs are also
possible across SE KS where no doubt close to a 2nd leading edge
of rich moisture that`ll likewise spread N across KCNU. NAM model
soundings depict that cigs at KCNU may even drop into IFR Country
late Sun morning. This item will certainly be monitored closely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    65  83  68  85 /  10  10  10  10
Hutchinson      63  82  67  86 /  10  10  10  10
Newton          62  81  66  84 /  10  10  10  10
ElDorado        63  82  66  84 /  10  10  10  20
Winfield-KWLD   65  83  67  85 /  20  20  20  20
Russell         61  83  66  88 /  10  10  10  10
Great Bend      62  82  66  87 /  10  10  10  10
Salina          62  85  67  88 /  10  10  10  10
McPherson       62  82  66  86 /  10  10  10  10
Coffeyville     64  81  66  84 /  30  30  20  30
Chanute         61  80  65  83 /  20  20  10  20
Iola            61  80  65  83 /  20  20  10  20
Parsons-KPPF    62  81  66  84 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...EPS



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