Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 191946
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
246 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Currently have an upper trough extending from the Great Lakes
into the Ohio valley with nw flow aloft over the northern and
central Plains. At the surface, the front that surged through Sat
night is now situated down across southern TX and is much more
diffuse now. Another weak surface front extends from northern MO
into sw Nebraska.

Pesky mid level clouds today are the result of mid level warm
advection, more than likely above 700mb. This localized area of
clouds should continue slowly moving off to the southeast. NW flow
will remain over the area for both Tue and Wed as a surface high
slowly slides east. This will allow some higher dewpoints to work
back into western KS with a persistent surface trough extending
from sw Nebraska into western KS. Storms are expected to develop
during the late afternoons of both Tue and Wed over western KS
with this activity trying to track east into the evening
hours...possibly making it into central KS. Surface trough looks
to be a bit further east Wed which should result in slightly
better storm chances over central KS early Wed evening. At least
some strong storms look possible with this activity but should be
diminishing in intensity as they progress east. So, have higher
confidence in severe storms west of our forecast area.

Temps both Tue and Wed will be slightly above normal but won`t be
anything close to what we had toward the end of last week.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Forecast confidence starts to drop off significantly starting
Thursday. The ECMWF and NAM are more progressive with a cold front
Thu-Thu evening compared to the GFS. If the faster solution
verifies, than the northern half of the forecast area would have
decent storm chances late Thu afternoon and especially Thu evening
with these better chances staying north if the GFS pans out.
Making things more difficult, the GFS does have some support from
the Canadian model.

Differences continue into Fri with the GFS much more progressive
tracking shortwave energy out of the northern Rockies and across
the northern Plains. The ECMWF is about 24 hours slower with this
wave and thus is also much slower pushing a strong cold front
through. GFS brings the front through Fri night with the ECMWF
moving it through Sat night. Good storm chances will be tied to
the front so obviously confidence in the timing will be low until
models come into better agreement. Air behind the front will be
well below normal with highs potentially in the upper 70s to
around 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Broken-overcast altocumulus decks (10,000-13,000 ft agl) will
continue to move southeastward across central/southeast Kansas
this afternoon. Spotty sprinkles have been observed under the
mid-level clouds, in association with a weak wave and mid-level
warm air advection, moving through the region. Expecting the
cloud cover and sprinkles to diminish from northwest to southeast
late this afternoon into early this evening. Otherwise, VFR will
prevail with very light west-southwesterly surface winds.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    83  64  92  70 /  10   0  10  10
Hutchinson      86  63  93  70 /  10   0  10  20
Newton          85  63  91  69 /  10   0  10  10
ElDorado        82  63  90  68 /  10   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   83  64  91  69 /  10   0   0  10
Russell         87  63  95  71 /  10   0  10  40
Great Bend      87  64  95  71 /  10   0  10  30
Salina          88  64  95  71 /  10   0  10  20
McPherson       87  63  94  70 /  10   0  10  20
Coffeyville     82  62  90  67 /  10   0   0   0
Chanute         82  62  90  67 /  10   0   0   0
Iola            82  62  90  67 /  10   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    82  64  90  67 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...JMC



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