000
FXUS63 KICT 131719
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1219 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

DRY AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES SLATED FOR KANSAS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ACTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR A
CHANGE. OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER
THE BAJA REGION EVENTUALLY MOVES EASTWARD. THE SHEAR ALOFT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS FAVORABLE DURING THE DAY...BUT DECENT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY STILL WOULD SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL OVER KANSAS FOR THIS PERIOD AS
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS...THUS CAUSING GULF MOISTURE TO STEADILY
INCREASE OVER KANSAS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVELING THROUGH THE
UPPER PATTERN WILL KEEP THINGS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH ON/OFF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...HOWEVER A MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH
IS FORECAST BY THE LONG RANGE MODELS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. IF THIS SIGNAL REMAINS CONSISTENT THEN CHANCES ARE GOOD
FOR A SPRING SEVERE WEATHER DAY...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER WARM
ALOFT WHICH COULD PROHIBIT THINGS STAY TUNED.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AVIATION CONCERNS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH WEAK FLOW OVER THE AREA TODAY. LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN
TOMORROW AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AND GUSTY WITH A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

BILLINGS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    84  58  90  63 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      85  59  92  62 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          82  58  87  63 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        82  58  89  63 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  58  88  64 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         90  60  95  58 /   0   0   0  20
GREAT BEND      90  60  95  58 /   0   0   0  20
SALINA          86  59  93  61 /   0   0   0  20
MCPHERSON       85  59  91  61 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     82  59  88  64 /   0   0   0  10
CHANUTE         80  57  87  62 /   0   0   0  10
IOLA            79  57  86  62 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    81  58  88  62 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$