835
FXUS63 KICT 281747
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1247 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight risk for additional strong/severe storms across the
  Flint Hills/southeast Kansas today with lingering areal and
  river flooding.

- Periodic chances for showers/storms for mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

After a very busy Saturday, trailing stratiform rain/thunder
continues to affect southeast Kansas early this morning with
mainly high water issues now. Increasing convergence along the
Pacific cold front merger into the dry-line has resulted in a
last gasp for a thin/marginally strong convective line of
storms moving into the Wichita metro as of 08z where a moderate
cape axis resides. Otherwise, best chances for renewed diurnal
storms will exist ahead of the front this afternoon across
southeast Kansas where instability/shear combo will support a
risk for some marginally severe hail and wind. A few post-
frontal showers will also be possible under the upper trof,
mainly across central Kansas. Dry and seasonably mild for Monday
before the pattern turns a bit more active again for the mid-
week periods. Moisture will return ahead of the next upper trof
moving across the northern Plains by Monday night with the
associated cold front moving into the area on Tuesday. An upper
trof will try and settle southward across the northern and
central Rockies from Wednesday into Thursday with a surface
front wavering across the area. Relatively weaker perturbations
rippling thru the mean flow ahead of the approaching northern
Rockies upper trof look to provide lift along the increasingly
moist unstable frontal boundary. A transition to cooler weather
behind a cold front later in the week as the main upper trof
progresses eastward across mid-America.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

MVFR and patchy IFR ceilings will gradually give way to SCT-BKN
VFR clouds from the west today through this evening, as a weak
cold front moves east through the region. Breezy south-southwest
winds will prevail ahead of the front over eastern Kansas, with
breezy west-northwest winds in its wake further west. Can`t rule
out a few stray thunderstorms this afternoon through early
evening over far eastern Kansas (mainly along/east of the Flint
Hills), but did not include this threat at CNU due to low
coverage. Some potential for low clouds/visibilities to
redevelop this evening-overnight over far southeast Kansas, but
only hinted at this threat at CNU with FEW009 SCT015 for now.
Winds will switch back around to south-southwest for Monday,
with light to modest speeds.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ070>072-094>096-
098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...ADK