Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 210446
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1146 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Front has now lifted and extends from northern MO and into far
northeast Nebraska. Meanwhile, an unseasonably warm and muggy
airmass remains over most of KS and OK. Upper ridging is expected
to remain over the southern Plains tonight through Wed. Meanwhile,
a tropical impulse emanating from tropical storm Paine will pass
over the Rockies Wed afternoon and out across the central Plains
Wed night. While the bulk of the precip associated with this
feature is expected to remain north and northeast of the forecast
area, increased mid level moisture transport may result in some
iso-sct convection over mainly central KS Wed night.

There is then good model agreement that a strong shortwave trough
will dig across the Great Basis/Desert southwest on Thu into Thu
night and slowly migrate east toward the High Plains on Fri into
Fri night. Through Fri night confidence is high that the better
rain chances will stay out over the high Plains.

Confidence is high that above normal temps will remain in place
through the work week with daily highs around 5 to 10 degrees above
normal. Widespread 70 dewpoints will persist through at least Wed
with some better mixing expected for Thu-Fri which should knock
down values into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Still looks like we are setting up a wet weekend with an
increased flooding risk. While both the GFS and ECMWF continue to
separate the trough into northern and southern stream impulses,
the ECMWF has backed off retrograding the southern stream
disturbance while the GFS still does. Regardless of which one
verifies, it still looks like rain chances will quickly increase
Sat and especially Sat night into Sun morning as upper dynamics
start to directly affect the area. In addition, a high PW airmass
will make a return which could also bring a return to high
rainfall rates. The ECMWF would push the better rain chances east
for Sun night into Mon while the retrograding GFS would keep
chances around the southern high Plains into OK and southern KS.
So confidence in rain chances decreases significantly after Sat
night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

VFR conditions will dominate the area for the overnight period. The
only potential problems for the overnight is some wind shear in
the RSL, GBD and SLN areas. This is due to a low level jet that
will set up tonight. The wind shear conditions are expected to
abate a few hours after sunrise as the surface inversion breaks
and the wind picks up for the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  92  69  91 /   0  10  10  10
Hutchinson      72  92  70  91 /   0  10  20  10
Newton          72  91  69  89 /   0  10  10  10
ElDorado        72  91  68  89 /   0  10  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   72  92  68  91 /   0  10  10  10
Russell         72  92  70  90 /  10  20  30  10
Great Bend      72  92  70  92 /  10  20  20  10
Salina          73  93  70  90 /   0  10  20  20
McPherson       72  91  70  90 /   0  10  20  20
Coffeyville     70  91  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
Chanute         71  90  66  88 /   0   0  10  10
Iola            71  89  66  88 /   0   0  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    71  91  66  90 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...ELM



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