Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 060836
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
236 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 234 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

A cold front was barreling across the state during the overnight
hours. This front will usher in much cooler air for today with highs
struggling to climb out of the low 40s with continued low level cold
air advection. Breezy north winds should be confined to the morning
hours with decreasing speeds as we move into the afternoon.

The next storm system currently impacting the Pacific Northwest and
Northern Intermountain region is progged to race eastward bringing
increasing chances for snow to central KS on Wednesday morning. We
are still expecting a broad area of mostly light snow to develop
within the H7 baroclinc zone across much of KS on Wednesday. The
best potential for more organized banding may remain across central
KS where a couple of inches are forecast. There may be another
attempt across southeast KS later in the afternoon as a more
transient area of frontogenesis propagates through the region within
the entrance region of the upper jet, but the biggest limiting
factor may be the progressive nature of the shortwave trough with
only a narrow window for accumulating snow across the region. Most
areas are expected to receive an inch or less before the snow
rapidly diminishes by late afternoon or early evening across
southeast KS.

For Wednesday night and Thursday, clearing conditions are
anticipated Wed night as high pressure builds into the region. This
will set the stage for the coldest night of the season across the
area with some locations seeing single digit lows. Cold air will
remain entrenched across the area on Thursday with highs struggling
to climb out of the low to mid 20s. Strong radiational cooling is
anticipated on Thursday night as high pressure translates over the
area resulting in more widespread single digit lows.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 234 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

A progressive zonal flow is progged to develop across the Conus
through the period. This will support moderating temperatures with
low probabilities for precipitation through the period. Another
progressive shortwave trough may bring an increase in pops over
the weekend, but confidence remains fairly low at this time. Highs
by early next week may rise above normal reaching the lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1153 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

A strong cold front currently pushing across Central KS will
continue to push south-southeast across the forecast area for the
overnight hours.  This strong cold front will shift the winds around
to the NW with some gusty winds for a few hours after the front
moves through. Some of the Hi-Rez model solutions and current obs
show some stratus developing just ahead of the cold front for areas
along and east of the KS Turnpike. Will keep the mention of some
MVFR cigs and vsbys in KCNU.

Ketcham


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    41  25  33  15 /   0  10  30   0
Hutchinson      41  24  31  12 /   0  10  30   0
Newton          40  24  30  12 /   0  10  30   0
ElDorado        40  25  32  14 /   0  10  30  10
Winfield-KWLD   42  27  35  16 /   0   0  20   0
Russell         38  21  27   9 /   0  30  60   0
Great Bend      38  22  29   9 /   0  30  60   0
Salina          39  21  30  10 /   0  20  40   0
McPherson       40  23  30  11 /   0  10  30   0
Coffeyville     44  27  37  18 /   0   0  30  10
Chanute         41  26  34  16 /   0   0  40  10
Iola            40  26  33  16 /   0   0  40  10
Parsons-KPPF    43  28  36  18 /   0   0  40  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...BDK



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