Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 202320
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
620 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Current satellite water vapor imagery shows two upper level waves
near the 4-corners region moving east across the Rockies. The lead
wave will eject out into the central plains tonight with
showers/storms developing over the Texas panhandle and Oklahoma, as
the low-level jet and moisture advection increases ahead of this
lead wave. Some of this activity will spread northward into southern
Kansas later tonight. Meanwhile the second wave will deepen and come
out stronger then the first wave during the day on Friday. The
moisture transport will increase even more and looks to target
northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and southern Missouri. This
will generate widespread showers/thunderstorms which could produce
heavy rainfall at times. Another area of more pronounced
precipitation will develop with-in the TROWAL axis over central
Kansas late Friday afternoon/night and move into eastern Kansas. The
one concern is that if convection goes bigger over central/eastern
Oklahoma on Friday it might cut down on rainfall amounts further
north in our area. However some locations experienced 1-2 inches of
rainfall last night and any additional rainfall in those areas could
easily cause some minor flooding problems with-in the Flood Watch
area.

We could see a few strong storms ahead of the main PV wave dynamics
Friday morning/early afternoon over southeast Kansas with decent
lapse rates/shear aloft. The better environment with higher
instability for severe weather looks to remain further south over
eastern Oklahoma. Cooler than normal daytime highs on Friday will
linger into Saturday behind the departing upper level wave as
northerly winds bring cooler air into the region. The rain will
quickly taper off Saturday morning over southeast Kansas. It will be
a cool start to the day on Sunday with some patchy frost possible
over central Kansas, but a pleasant weather day will be in store
with light winds and the star shining brightly Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Dry and warmer temperatures expected for early next week as gulf
moisture is swept well southward from the weekend system towards the
Yucatan region. It will take a couple of days for the moisture to
recover and make its way back northward to the central plains. Long
range models show a decent weather system materializing over the
western states and pushing into the central plains for Wednesday
night/Thursday. Should finally get the gulf moisture to return and
accompany this system for shower/thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Aviation concerns will be increasing rain chances and lowering
ceilings.

Water vapor imagery shows shortwave energy tracking across the
central Rockies and is expected to move out into the Plains
tonight. Isentropic lift and 850-700mb theta-e advection will
quickly increase tonight as this wave approaches causing
widespread showers and storms to develop over northern OK. This
activity will gradually lift north late tonight into Fri morning.
KCNU has the best chance to be affected by showers/iso storm late
tonight into Fri morning and to a lesser extent KICT. However,
another upper impulse is expected to approach the Plains Fri
afternoon and will bring another round of rainfall that will
likely affect most sites. Currently have high confidence in MVFR
ceilings for KICT-KCNU-KHUT for much of the day Fri with a chance
we may see some pockets of IFR ceilings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    50  55  44  58 /  60  80  70  20
Hutchinson      48  54  42  59 /  50  80  70  10
Newton          48  54  42  57 /  40  80  80  20
ElDorado        50  55  43  57 /  60  80  80  20
Winfield-KWLD   51  56  44  58 /  80  90  70  20
Russell         47  55  41  60 /  20  80  60  10
Great Bend      47  53  40  59 /  30  80  60  10
Salina          48  57  43  60 /  20  70  70  10
McPherson       47  55  42  58 /  30  70  70  20
Coffeyville     53  58  46  55 /  90 100  80  40
Chanute         50  56  44  55 /  60  90  90  40
Iola            50  56  44  55 /  50  80  90  40
Parsons-KPPF    52  57  45  55 /  80 100  90  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from midnight CDT tonight through Saturday morning
for KSZ069>072-083-092>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL


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