Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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327
FXUS63 KICT 021152
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
552 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE COMBINED WITH LOCAL RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SLOT RACING NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS....WHICH
WILL TAPER OFF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF AS DRY SLOT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. MEANWHILE...THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF SNOW LOOKS TO PIVOT
EASTWARD BACK INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. WE DID LOWER THE SNOW TOTALS FURTHER AS
THE STRONGER LIFT LOOKS TO BE BRIEF FOR CENTRAL KANSAS...THIS ALSO
RESULTED IN A CANCELLATION OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING DOWN TO A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE 1-4
INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.
OTHERWISE THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING LIKELY. THE
STRONGER WINDS AND COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WE DID HOIST A WIND
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AS DEEPER MIXING FROM CLEARING
SKIES LOOKS TO TAP INTO HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ALOFT AND BRING THEM
DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

COLD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL WARMING FOR THURSDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL FOR
FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...HOWEVER NOT ANTICIPATING IT TO
BECOME A BIG WARM-UP LIKE WE WITNESSED THIS PAST FRIDAY-SUNDAY.
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUES SOUTHEAST INTO
TEXAS COME SATURDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
SYSTEM FOR KANSAS...WITH MOISTURE EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF THIS FAR NORTH
AND DRY WEATHER PERSISTING. OTHERWISE...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE
SHOWING A PATTERN CHANGE COMING WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH BEING
CARVED OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO
SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL TEND TO CONCENTRATE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-35 KT ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST KS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH VFR
WEATHER AT CNU...ICT...AND HUT. AREAS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO WRAP
AROUND THE SURFACE LOW...SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF
25-35 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS PM/EVE.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    43  23  38  21 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      40  22  36  19 /  10  10  10   0
NEWTON          42  22  35  20 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO        44  23  36  21 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   46  24  39  21 /  10  10  10   0
RUSSELL         33  17  31  13 /  60  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      33  18  32  15 /  30  10  10   0
SALINA          40  22  32  17 /  40  30  10   0
MCPHERSON       40  22  34  18 /  20  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     54  27  40  22 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         53  26  38  21 /  10  10  10   0
IOLA            52  26  37  21 /  10  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    55  26  39  21 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-
033-047-048.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ070>072-094>096-098>100.

&&

$$



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