Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 131112
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
612 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Remnants of Irma have continued to drift NE toward the Western OH
Valley during the night. A strong upper-deck ridge, that extends
from Baja CA almost of the Wrn Dakotas, will force the remnants NE
as it gets forced in a general ely manner across the Great Plains
by a strong, positively-tilted upper-deck trof that`ll dig almost
due S from the Pacific NW to the Great Basin from today thru Fri.
The upper deck ridge should deamplify as it approaches, then
crosses, the Great Lakes Thu afternoon. The ridge, though
deamplifying, will keep us high & dry throughout these periods. A
deepening mid-level shortwave that`ll eject E from the previously
mentioned upper wave will induce weak sfc cyclogenesis across the
Western Plains. This would cause southerly flow to increase. This
warrants pressing a harder on the wind throttle, especially Thu &
Fri afternoons, from the initialization guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

The "stars of the show" continue to be the western U.S. upper-deck
wave & its attendant cold front. With broad & STRONG mid-upper
deck ridging nearly covering the southeastern half of the U.S. the
upper-deck wave would still be expected to surge NE across the
Northern Plains over the weekend. The upper-deck wave may undergo
cyclogenesis as it continues to lift NE across the
Manitoba/Ontario border Sun afternoon & evening. This would cause
the attendant SE- moving cold front, progged to enter NW KS Sat
afternoon, to begin decelerating as it ventures further into KS
Sat Night. The upper- deck wave`s behavior would likely cause the
front stall in an E/W manner through KS on Sun with the front
weakening Sunday Night & Mon. With richer moisture no doubt
pooling along the decelerating front scattered thunderstorms would
be expected from Sat afternoon thru Tue. With feeble mid- upper
dynamics, the thunderstorms should behave.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period
with relatively light winds. With surface ridge moving east, weak
return flow will develop. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    90  63  92  69 /   0   0   0  10
Hutchinson      91  62  92  68 /   0   0   0  10
Newton          89  62  91  68 /   0   0   0  10
ElDorado        88  62  91  68 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   89  62  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         93  65  95  69 /   0  10  10  10
Great Bend      93  64  94  68 /   0   0   0  10
Salina          93  64  95  69 /   0  10   0  10
McPherson       90  62  92  68 /   0   0   0  10
Coffeyville     87  59  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         86  59  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            86  58  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    87  59  89  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...PJH



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