Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 182054
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
254 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 254 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Chances for sporadic light precip the next couple days as well
cloud trends and affect on temperatures are the main challenges.
Nothing more than a few sprinkles/trace of rain late this morning
as expected across parts of central Kansas. Temperatures did get
a couple degrees warmer though with sunshine in a few locales.
Modest low level moist advection will continue across the area
tonight through Thursday as the main upper low over Colorado and
New Mexico moves east across the central and southern Plains. This
should manifest itself first in the form of stratus and fog later
tonight into Thursday morning. Lift from the left exit region of a
strong upper jet also looks to force a transient area of deeper
moist ascent which will graze far southeast Kansas tonight. So
will reintroduce small PoPs there with a chance of drizzle as far
west as Beaumont ridge in the Flint Hills. A vort lobe rotating
under the parent upper low looks to move across central into
northeast Kansas during Thursday. This may also promote widely
scattered light showers, so plan to introduce small PoPs for this
as well. Plan to shade max temperatures a bit under MOS consensus
on Thursday due to more clouds. Some patchy drizzle and fog could
redevelop across parts of central and southeast Kansas Thursday
night in the wake of the departing upper trof in the easterly
component flow at the surface. Another upper trof will quickly
approach and impact the area late Friday with the emerging surface
cyclone moving from southwest into north central Kansas. While
there could be some light rain or drizzle along and north of I-70,
the better chances for light measurable precip should remain just
north of the forecast area. The more vigorous upper trof/low is
still progged to deepen as it moves into and across the southern
Plains Saturday through Saturday night. While the current track
would keep the better precip chances and QPF just south of the
area, modest PoPs remain warranted across southern Kansas with
potential for tweaking if the path or timing changes. Thermal
profiles remain relatively warm, though will leave the potential
open for a slightly colder solution for a wintry mix Saturday
night into Sunday morning in some locales.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

There is more divergence in the medium range on the potential
timing and track of a more impactful storm system across the
central Plains early next week. The main challenge and difference
is the development and movement of the main upper low which
emerges within the mean longwave across the western into the
central CONUS. The ECMWF now ejects a lead shortwave into Kansas
on Monday while the GFS maintains a deeper coherent upper trof
across the western CONUS which moves across the Plains during
Tuesday. While the GFS remains a bit more consistent, confidence
on any particular outcome remains low, except to say there is
potential for another impactful Winter storm sometime next week
across the Plains.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

7-10 kft clouds will linger through the day with a few sprinkles
possible, otherwise VFR will prevail through early evening. Low
level moisture is progged to return northward across the area
tonight as a slow moving storm system lifts over the region with
the biggest impacts anticipated across southeast KS where drizzle
and fog will become widespread after 03-05z likely lowering flight
categories at KCNU. As we move west, low cigs and visibilities
will also be possible within a moist low level southeasterly flow
regime with flight categories lowering after 05-07z at most
locations. Low temperatures will remain above freezing across the
forecast area while low cigs and visibilities linger into the
morning hours on Thu.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    40  53  39  57 /  10  20  10  10
Hutchinson      39  51  37  54 /  10  20  10  10
Newton          39  52  39  55 /  10  20  20  10
ElDorado        39  54  39  57 /  10  20  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   41  56  39  59 /  10  20  10   0
Russell         36  47  35  50 /  10  20  10  20
Great Bend      36  48  34  51 /  10  20  10  10
Salina          37  50  38  53 /  10  20  20  10
McPherson       38  51  38  53 /  10  20  20  10
Coffeyville     42  57  42  61 /  20  10  10   0
Chanute         40  55  41  58 /  20  10  20  10
Iola            40  54  42  58 /  20  10  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    41  56  42  60 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...MWM


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