Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 241807
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
107 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

GOOD SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA..AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG 315K SURFACE INCREASES
BEFORE DAYBREAK AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN SHOULD FLATTEN
OUT FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HEAT TO BUILD ACROSS
KANSAS ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES LOOK TO PUSH ABOVE 100 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. IF DEWPOINTS CAN
BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON HEAT HEADLINES
COULD BE HOISTED BY LATER FORECAST UPDATES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR THE AREA LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL PERHAPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN A SURFACE FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT
EVEN THOSE CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING ALL THAT SPECTACULAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS PERIOD...AS LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DECENT MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNAL ALONG
700MB GRADIENT SUPPORTS GOING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFFECTING MAINLY
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. IF THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION LINGER THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN COOLER.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES DURING PERIOD. HOWEVER
WILL SEE AN OCCASIONAL CEILING AROUND 3K FT AT CNU TAF SITE FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON DRIFTING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
DECREASE IN WINDS NEAR SUNSET BUT EXPECT TO SEE GUSTY WINDS START
UP AGAIN TOMORROW.


SALAZAR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74 100  75 101 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      74 102  74 102 /   0  10  10  20
NEWTON          74 101  75 101 /   0  10  10  20
ELDORADO        72  99  73 100 /   0  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   73 100  74 101 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         74 103  72 100 /   0  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      75 103  73 101 /   0  10  10  20
SALINA          74 105  74 102 /   0  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       74 102  74 102 /   0  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     71  97  73  99 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         68  97  72  99 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            68  97  72  99 /   0  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    69  97  73  99 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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