Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 080521
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1121 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA
TODAY WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE
WILL COMBINE WITH STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
CAA RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. TIME/HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS OF WIND/MIXING LAYER HEIGHT
SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS MAY BE HIGHER ON MONDAY COMPARED TO TODAY AND
HEADLINES FOR FIRE WEATHER/WIND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TRENDED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH LIMITED INSOLATION AS A STEADY
STREAM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY DAMPEN THE DIURNAL CLIMB.

TUE-WED...NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE HIGHS MAY CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLOWER TO MODERATE ACROSS FAR
EASTERN KANSAS WHERE HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY
MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT MAY BACK
ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THE BULK OF COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BREAK DOWN THE MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE COMBINATION OF A PERSISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND TURBULENT
MIXING WILL PROMOTE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
TAF CYCLE. COULD SEE WINDS RELAX A BIT BEFORE SUNRISE...HOWEVER
GIVEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE MID/LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 MPH. CLOUDS WILL
BISECT THE STATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH KCNU HAVING THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING LOW END VFR CEILINGS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS OF LIGHT SNOW FOR NOW AS KCNU LOOKS TO BE ON
THE VERY EDGE OF ANY DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOW.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CONTINUES. MAINTAINED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.
WITH LOWER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
MONDAY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT EXTREME GFDI WILL NOT DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    29  43  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  42  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          28  41  24  44 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        28  41  24  46 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   29  44  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         27  39  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      26  39  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          28  40  23  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       28  41  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     31  43  25  45 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         30  40  24  42 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            30  38  23  39 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    31  41  25  43 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ050-051-067>069-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$


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