Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 241955
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
255 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NUMBER OF IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH. ONE IS LIFTING OVER NORTH CENTRAL
TX/SOUTHERN OK WITH ANOTHER ONE LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN CO. LAST
BUT NOT LEAST A SMALL COMPACT PIECE OF ENERGY IS DIVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE DESERT SW. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LEE
TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A MESO LOW ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

REGIONAL 88D`S SHOW A PRONOUNCED CIRCULATION LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
CENTRAL OK WITH A VERY SLOW BUT PERSISTENT AREA OF MODERATE
SHOWERS REMAINING OVER NORTH CENTRAL OK THROUGH MOST OF THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THIS
EVENING AS THE WAVE LIFTS ACROSS EASTERN KS BUT WITH THE HIGHER
PW`S AND BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...NOT
EXPECTING THE HIGH RAINFALL RATES WE GOT LAST NIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD
AND LET THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE AND LET THE EVENING SHIFT CANCEL
ONCE THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END. CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING
OVER EASTERN CO ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX LIFTING ACROSS WITH
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WEST-CENTRAL KS LATE
TONIGHT. WILL THEREFORE LINGER SOME POPS OVER CENTRAL KS AFTER
06Z.

MODELS STILL REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING EXTREME INSTABILITY
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MINIMAL CAPPING FOR MON
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE WON`T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE
FEATURE TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT. FEEL THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR DEEP
DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL BE OVER CENTRAL KS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE UPPER WAVE. LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE HIGHER END
SEVERE BUT WITH THAT MUCH INSTABILITY...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LARGE
HAIL OR WET MICROBURST WINDS. MEANWHILE...THE WAVE OVER THE DESERT
SW WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WILL LIFT ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN OK MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHILE THIS WILL BRING
SOME RAIN CHANCES TO SE KS...THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL STAY
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD GET AN OVERALL LULL IN
ACTIVITY FOR TUE AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE LIFTS OFF INTO THE MISS
VALLEY. SOME HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY TUE AFTERNOON
WITH THE THINKING IT SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH AN OVERALL INCREASE IN CONVECTION TUE EVENING
AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS KS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS.

WHILE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED FOR WED...WITH AN
UNCAPPED AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...CAN`T RULE OUT SCT
TO ISO STORMS. BETTER SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LOOK TO ARRIVE WED
NIGHT AS SOME UPPER ENERGY MOVES OUT ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A MORE ROBUST UPPER WAVE AFFECTING THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT TIME FRAME
AND WILL THUS CARRY HIGH POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LOW CEILINGS AT LEAST OFF AND ON AS MOIST LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS PERSIST. MVFR CEILINGS ARE PRESENT AT MOST
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST OFF AND ON AND EXPECT THIS TO
PERSIST. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND EXPECT THAT TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD
AND IMPACT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LOWER CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND COULD DROP TO IFR TO
LIFR. EXPECTING TO LIFT AGAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS BACK TO
MVFR.

BILLINGS WRIGHT


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  79  61  79 /  30  20  30  10
HUTCHINSON      58  79  59  78 /  20  20  30  20
NEWTON          57  79  59  77 /  30  20  30  10
ELDORADO        59  80  62  79 /  40  20  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  80  60  80 /  40  20  30  10
RUSSELL         56  77  55  78 /  30  30  30  20
GREAT BEND      56  77  56  78 /  30  20  30  20
SALINA          58  78  60  79 /  20  30  30  20
MCPHERSON       57  79  58  78 /  20  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     59  79  61  79 /  80  30  50  10
CHANUTE         60  78  61  78 /  80  30  50  10
IOLA            60  78  61  78 /  80  30  40  10
PARSONS-KPPF    60  78  61  79 /  80  30  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ053-069-083-
092-093.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KSZ070>072-094>096-
098>100.

&&

$$



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