Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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717
FXUS63 KICT 201949
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
249 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

A strong high pressure system to the North will be pushing off to
the East which is creating a decent cap over the region. This high
pressure will also allow for some CAA that will bring
temperatures down as well. Tomorrow, mid level moisture will be
high enough to keep some clouds in the area which will help keep
temperatures down. Thursday things start to get interesting
again. A strong low pressure system will be moving into the region
and will bring strong WAA into region again. Mid and upper level
shear looks good over much of the Western parts of the CWA but
moisture transport looks dismal. This will make it difficult for
widespread thunderstorms activity to occur. Some isolated severe
thunderstorms will be possible but do not expect widespread
activity due to the lack return flow from the Gulf of Mexico and
low and mid level moisture transport.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Friday looks to be the best chance for some decent precipitation
the region has had in the past month. The GFS/ECMWF both indicate
a shot of precipitation in the form of a fast moving line of
showers and thunderstorms. Some isolated sever thunderstorms are
possible during the morning hours Friday. By the afternoon
timeframe, it appears a strong dry slot will come into the CWA
which will shut off the precipitation chances until later in the
evening. By this time, any precipitation that does occur will
likely be on the back side of the low pressure system (deformation
zone precip) which will likely be lighter. All of this activity is
expected to be rather light and fast moving which will likely keep
the precipitation amounts down.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Main aviation concern will be some lower clouds late tonight into
Tue morning.

Cold front is very slowly pushing south across KS and currently
extends from northern MO into far sw KS. This front will continue
moving south, flipping winds at all sites around to the
northeast. Even with cold air moving-in, not expecting lower
clouds until a stronger push of cold air arrives Tue morning. When
this occurs should be at least some MVFR ceilings across most
sites, especially across southern KS. Confidence is not that high
in IFR ceilings at this time so will just keep them at MVFR levels
generally around or after 15z Tue.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Fire weather danger will be a little evaluated in the Eastern
portions of the region with a very high fire danger a few hours
this afternoon. By the evening, the temperatures will drop and the
winds will stay out of the North. Additional cloud cover will help
keep the fire danger down for Wednesday.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    84  53  63  42 /   0   0  10  10
Hutchinson      81  50  60  40 /   0   0  10  20
Newton          82  51  59  39 /   0   0  10  10
ElDorado        84  54  62  41 /   0   0  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   86  55  67  44 /   0   0  10  10
Russell         75  44  56  36 /   0   0  10  30
Great Bend      77  45  57  36 /   0   0  10  30
Salina          77  48  58  38 /   0   0  10  20
McPherson       79  48  59  38 /   0   0  10  20
Coffeyville     87  57  71  45 /   0   0  20  30
Chanute         85  55  64  42 /   0   0  20  20
Iola            85  54  62  41 /   0   0  20  20
Parsons-KPPF    86  56  68  45 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...ELM



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