Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 112335
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
535 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 125 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

The forecast over the upcoming week still appears to be filled with
relatively low impact weather conditions.

Areas of fog and drizzle will continue to impact the area early this
evening before increasing large-scale forcing for subsidence arrives
in the wake of the mid level trough axis. There is some concern that
the models may be to quick scouring out the moisture in the planetary
boundary layer as the front becomes somewhat diffuse and
struggles to move across the forecast area. This may lead to a
longer duration drizzle and perhaps some areas of fog persisting a
bit longer through the night.

Confidence is high that some drier air will overspread the area on
Sunday afternoon as surface high pressure settles south across the
Upper Mississippi Valley area. This should result in some breaks in
the clouds with seasonably cool highs in the 50s.

Another round of drizzle and perhaps some very light rain may arrive
late Mon into Tue with increasing low level moisture advection
returning to the Central Plains states. Some elevated instability
late Tue night may support a few thunderstorms across the eastern
third of Kansas as another cold front moves south across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 125 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

Above normal temperatures will prevail at the beginning of the
period before another vigorous mid/upper trough sweeps across the
Northern Plains states late Thu driving a cold front south across
the area. Some elevated storms may accompany the front,
especially across southeast KS. Gusty northwest winds may also
elevate the grassland fire danger index on Fri across portions of
the area but some timing uncertainty still remains. A return to
more seasonable temperatures can be expected for the Fri-Sat
periods.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 529 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

IFR and LIFR conditions will dominate the all terminals expect CNU
for the evening and overnight hours. Drizzle and fog will be
likely during the evening and overnight hours as well. As the low
pressure system to the south moves to the east, low level wind
flow will shift to the north and may move to the northwest by
sunrise tomorrow. This will allow visibilities to rise toward
morning. However, IFR/LIFR conditions will remain due to the low
clouds at all terminals. The low clouds (IFR conditions) will hold
on much of the day and are not expected to clear until close to
noon from west to east. CNU may not clear until mid to late
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    45  55  37  54 /  50   0   0  10
Hutchinson      44  53  35  53 /  40   0   0   0
Newton          44  53  35  53 /  60   0   0   0
ElDorado        45  55  34  54 /  60   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   47  57  37  54 /  40   0   0  20
Russell         40  51  34  55 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      42  51  34  55 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          42  53  34  55 /  50   0   0   0
McPherson       43  53  34  53 /  50   0   0   0
Coffeyville     48  58  37  56 /  40   0   0  10
Chanute         46  55  35  55 /  50   0   0  10
Iola            46  54  35  55 /  60   0   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    47  57  37  56 /  50   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...ELM



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