Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 291753
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1253 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
NOT QUITE AS MUCH DISCREPANCY AS TO WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
WILL BE THIS PERIOD...BUT NAM/GFS BOTH SHOWING USUAL BIASES WITH
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/CAPPING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS. BOTH DO SHOW 850MB MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN FAR
SOUTHEAST KS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. WITH THAT SIGNAL AND
PROXIMITY OF UPPER TROUGH/LOW...DIURNAL SHOWERS SEEMS PROBABLE AND
WILL ADD SMALL POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL HANDLE
THIS ONE DAY AT A TIME...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF ITS
NEEDED AGAIN ON SUN. TEMPERATURES LIKELY GOING TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREE COOLER IN SOUTHEAST KS DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

SUN-MON:
STILL ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUN. HOWEVER AREAS
EAST OF I-35 ARE A CHALLENGE GIVEN SEVERAL MODELS NOW SLOSH DEEPER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/CLOUDS/
PRECIPITATION COULD RESULT IN COOLER THAN FORECAST MAXES AGAIN ON
SUN. WITH INCREASING SOUTH FLOW AND RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE MORE ON MON...GOING AT OR ABOVE
NORMALS AT MOST LOCATIONS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

DESPITE FAIRLY DECENT MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AGREEMENT...THERE IS ONE
NAGGING ISSUE: THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION/MAGNITUDE OF
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION ON WED. THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION/SHOWERS IN MAINLY CENTRAL
KS DUE TO THIS...BUT SIGNAL IS A BIT WEEK RELATIVE TO MODEL QPF
AND RESULTANT PROBABILITY INITIALIZATION GRIDS. WOULD HAVE
PREFERRED TO KEEP FORECAST DRY PENDING LATER RUNS AND MORE
CONSISTENCY. WITH APPARENT UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURE AT OR ABOVE NORMALS. BUMPED
UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...BUT PATTERN VERIFICATION WOULD
SUGGEST BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS WOULD BE EVEN WARMER BY A FEW MORE
DEGREES. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LOW CLOUDS HAVE INVADED ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KRSL. CIGS ARE
VARYING BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 WHICH PRODUCES A FEW ISSUES WITH VFR
FLIGHT PLANS. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THE LOW DECK WILL LIFT
A BIT AND SCATTER OUT. HOWEVER IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WE BEGIN
TO COOL OFF I EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO FILTER BACK INT FROM AN
EAST TO WEST DIRECTION. KRSL WILL STILL REMAIN VIRTUALLY CLOUD
FREE. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE DENSE FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS
CIGS COULD DROP AOB 2SM TOWARDS 9Z. CLEARING SKIES ARE FORECAST
AFTER 14Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    85  63  87  68 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      85  61  88  67 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          84  62  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        84  63  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   85  64  87  68 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         87  60  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      87  60  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          84  61  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       85  61  87  67 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     83  67  86  68 /  20  20  10  10
CHANUTE         83  65  86  68 /  20  20  10  10
IOLA            83  65  85  67 /  20  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    83  66  86  68 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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