Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 260747
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
247 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS RATHER STRONG THIS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
COULD KEEP SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS GOING OVER EASTERN KANSAS
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN
FOR TODAY ACROSS KANSAS. THE DEWPOINTS DID MIX OUT A BIT MORE
YESTERDAY AND SHOULD DO THE SAME TODAY...HOWEVER HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS.
MEANWHILE...CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE OVER NEVADA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR LATER TODAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL JET TO INCREASE AND FOCUS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. A COMPLEX OF STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE EASTWARD
AND FEED OFF THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND COULD AFFECT CENTRAL
KANSAS BY THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.

HEADING INTO MONDAY THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD MOVE WELL NORTH OF
KANSAS WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NORTH AS WELL. THE HEAT WILL
CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION AND HEAT HEADLINES
COULD BE EXTENDED AS A RESULT. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS ON TUESDAY. DECENT
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE
NUMEROUS STORMS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DECENT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A FEW UPPER LEVEL
WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DAYTIME HIGHS COULD BE
EVEN COOLER ESPECIALLY IF THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION LINGER
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
SETTLE IN ACROSS KANSAS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LIMITED CHANCES
OF STORMS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY
CLIMO.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY WEST OF THE
AREA...BUT EASTERN FRINGES COULD POSSIBLY AFFECT ICT-HUT
OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM COULD ALSO AFFECT CNU. ALL-IN-
ALL...GIVEN ACTIVITY IS DECREASING IN INTENSITY...ONLY INCLUDED
VCSH AT ICT-HUT-CNU FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AREAWIDE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT   100  76 100  77 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON     100  76 101  77 /  20  20  10  10
NEWTON         100  76 100  76 /  20  10  10  10
ELDORADO        98  75  99  76 /  20  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  76  99  76 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELL        100  75 102  77 /  10  40  10  10
GREAT BEND     100  75 102  76 /  10  40  10  10
SALINA         101  76 102  78 /  20  20  10  10
MCPHERSON      100  76 101  77 /  20  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     97  75  97  76 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         96  74  96  76 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            95  74  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    97  75  97  76 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



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