Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 112355
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
555 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 234 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Headline:
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the entire CWA until 7PM
CST this evening (see Fire Weather discussion below).

A rapidly moving mid/upper level shortwave clipper is making its
way through the Middle Mississippi Valley this afternoon and
evening. A weak surface trough that is draped across the eastern
Plains is being pushed through by the clipper, tightening the
northwest oriented gradient at the surface this afternoon. The
tightened gradient, steep lapse rates, and a good amount of mixing
are allowing for elevated wind speeds across much of the Plains.
Sustained speeds in excess of 30mph with gusts near 40mph are
possible.

As the system jets eastward away from the CWA late Monday evening
and into Tuesday morning, wind speeds will come back down
overnight Monday night. Additionally, a wedge of slightly cooler
air in the wake of the shortwave will keep highs on Tuesday
roughly 10 degrees cooler than Monday, though the overall synoptic
pattern of northwesterly flow with a mid/upper ridge in the west
and trough in the eastern CONUS will continue. This will allow for
another gradual warmup on Wednesday with highs once again nearing
the 60 degree mark.

Indications are that another clipper will likely skirt across the
northeastern corner of Kansas during the day on Wednesday, which
would once again elevate wind speeds with possible gusts near
30mph. Like with the previous system, very low atmospheric
moisture content and dew points dipping into the mid 20s during
the afternoon could create very high fire danger on Wednesday.
Otherwise, increased cloud cover and cooler temperatures on
Thursday in the shortwave`s wake are the only highlights of an
otherwise quiet forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 234 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

The high pressure regime that has been dominating the western
CONUS will finally give way on Thursday into Friday, as an
elongated upper trough backs across the Central Plains. This will
quickly move east and will be followed by yet another wave that is
forecast to usher a surface low just to the northeast of the
area. It looks as if the timing and location of this second
shortwave this weekend will not be conducive to any precip for the
area, as moisture will remain scarce. Therefore, the current
consensus is that the dry pattern we have been experiencing for
some time now will continue for central, south central, and
southeast Kansas at least through early next week.

Due to frequent inquiries about any precip chances at all within
the foreseeable future for the area, took a quick glance beyond
the forecast period into the extended period. Early indications
from both long range models and CPC are that that the dry weather
is likely to continue for the better part of what remains of 2017.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 555 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Gusty northwest winds
will gradually subside this evening, as high pressure approaches
from the north. May see a period of SCT-BKN VFR clouds around
5000 ft AGL at RSL-SLN-CNU before midnight tonight, in response to
cold advection.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all CWA counties until 7PM
this evening. Northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph are possible with
gusts as strong as 45mph. When combined with cured grasses and low
relative humidity values (around 20 percent), these strong winds
will create an extreme grassland fire danger across not only the CWA
but the state of Kansas and beyond. Any fires that develop Monday
afternoon will likely spread rapidly and may be difficult to
control. Any outdoor burning is highly discouraged.

Another day of fire concern is likely on Wednesday, when low relative
humidities and wind gusts up to 30mph will result in grassland
fire danger index values in the very high category across much of
the CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    30  51  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      28  51  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          28  49  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        29  48  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   29  50  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         25  54  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      25  54  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          27  51  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       26  50  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     28  47  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         27  45  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            26  45  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    27  46  30  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...TAV



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