Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 262332
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
632 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS WILL MOVE PROGRESSIVELY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT...AND THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY MORNING...AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS MONDAY
EVENING. MARGINAL GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RETURN IS PROGGED AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WITH THE 850 FLOW VEERED TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL
PROBABLY KEEP MOST OR ALL OF THE REGION CAPPED DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHEAST KS MONDAY EVENING AS THE 850-700 LAYER COOLS WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BARRING A POST-FRONTAL
SPRINKLE OR BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER WITHIN THE 700 MB FRONTAL ZONE.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WITH THE
SOUTHEAST WARMING MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE LOW-MID 80S...WITH
COOLER POST-FRONTAL HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE KANSAS REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE LAST
WEEK OF OCTOBER.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER PATTERN
AMPLIFYING LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH DEEP UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A SECOND LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
INTO THE WESTERN STATES. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE
PLAINS FRIDAY-SATURDAY IN BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGHS.
A CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HELPING TO SHUNT GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AS WELL AS COOL TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY...BEFORE SOME
MODIFICATION OCCURS SUNDAY ON RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. STRONG LEE
TROUGHING LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY WINDY
DAY ON SUNDAY IF THE MODELS STAY ON PRESENT TRACK. UNFORTUNATELY...DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS EXTENDED STRETCH.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE MAIN TAF CONCERN
WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO CENTRAL KS ON MON
MORNING...WHICH WILL SHIFT THE WIND AROUND THE NW FOR KRSL/KSLN
BY 15-16Z/MON.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MON...REACHING KHUT/KICT BETWEEN
18-20Z. NOT ALOT OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WITH MINIMAL
CONVERGENCE...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG IT AS
IT PUSHES SE. COULD SEE A VERY SMALL LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
CHANCE AT KCNU...BUT WILL LEAVE THIS DRY FOR NOW...AS CHANCES WILL
PROBABLY STAY NORTH OF THIS SITE.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    61  80  45  68 /   0  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      58  75  42  66 /   0  10  10   0
NEWTON          60  77  44  65 /   0  10  10   0
ELDORADO        62  81  46  67 /   0  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  82  47  67 /   0  10  10   0
RUSSELL         52  71  38  64 /   0  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      52  72  39  64 /   0  10  10   0
SALINA          56  75  42  65 /   0  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       58  75  42  65 /   0  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     63  83  50  68 /   0  10  50  10
CHANUTE         62  81  49  67 /   0  10  40  10
IOLA            62  81  48  66 /   0  20  40  10
PARSONS-KPPF    62  82  49  68 /   0  10  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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