Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 242032
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
332 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Current wind advisory looks good and will let expire on time at
22z. Main challenge will be precip/convective chances/trends
late Tuesday thru Wednesday. Strong flow aloft off the Pacific
will continue to develop and amplify an upper trof across the
western CONUS thru Tuesday, before moving out across the Plains
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Periodic shortwaves emanating from
the developing upper trof will move across the area tonight into
Tuesday with decent mid-level height falls over the central
Plains. A cold front will move south across western and central
Kansas Tuesday morning as a pre-frontal dry-line moves east into
south central Kansas. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures look
to limit convective chances in the warm sector ahead of these
features until early Tuesday evening. Another merging dry-line
cold front scenario may increase convergence sufficiently for
deep surface based convection across southeast Kansas before it
pushes east of the area late Tuesday evening. Should convection
develop before dark, MLCape values in the 1500-2000 j/kg range
and bulk shear around 60kts will easily support severe storms
with large hail and a damaging wind threat. Chances for some
elevated, post-frontal convection look good early Tuesday night,
perhaps as far northwest as the Kansas turnpike with a combo of
weak to modest CAPE and cloud bearing shear. A colder, brisk north
wind will develop across the area later Tuesday night into midday
Wednesday with scattered to numerous rain showers as the main
upper trof moves across Kansas. Another upper trof will drop
southeast across the high Plains during Thursday with elevated
moisture transport in the 850-700 mb layer resulting in weak
instability for a chance for late day showers and storms.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Somewhat better model consensus exists in showing the development
of a closed upper low across the four corners region by Saturday
morning before the low/upper trof lifts out across the Plains in
some fashion Saturday night through Sunday. The main gist will be
to push the more meaningful moisture and warmer air south of the
area over the weekend as well as lessening the risk for severe
weather across southern Kansas. That said, periods of lift and
elevated instability north of the front will still result in
scattered to numerous showers/storms at times thru much of the
weekend. Dry weather looks to return by late Sunday into Monday.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Gusty southerly winds will peak during the early afternoon hours
before subsiding a bit by mid to late afternoon. The LLJ will
crank up again tonight with low level wind shear developing across
much of South Central and Southeast KS as winds decouple at the
sfc. VFR will prevail through the 24-hr period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    55  77  45  54 /  10  10  50  50
Hutchinson      54  75  43  55 /  10  10  50  40
Newton          55  74  43  53 /  10  10  50  50
ElDorado        56  78  46  53 /  10  10  50  50
Winfield-KWLD   56  81  48  53 /   0  10  40  50
Russell         52  65  39  57 /  10  20  50  20
Great Bend      52  68  40  57 /  10  20  50  30
Salina          55  71  43  56 /  20  20  50  40
McPherson       54  73  43  54 /  10  20  50  40
Coffeyville     57  81  54  56 /   0  10  80  60
Chanute         56  79  51  54 /   0  10  80  60
Iola            55  78  51  54 /  10  10  80  60
Parsons-KPPF    56  80  53  55 /   0  10  80  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ049-051>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...MWM


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