000
FXUS63 KICT 130443 CCA
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1150 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO
SCOOT SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST KANSAS THRU EARLY
THIS EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP JUST
WEST OF THE AREA WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO FRINGE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO TURN MUCH WARMER WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MAXS FINALLY WELL ABOVE
MID-MAY CLIMO. SOME LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO TOP 90F FOR THE FIRST
TIME THIS SPRING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DRY
OUT THE AIR ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
CONSIDERABLE GREEN-UP HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS SO
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS ONLY EXPECTED TO ELEVATE TO MODERATE
LEVELS. THE APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT AND SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROF FOR WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME
PRECIP/CONVECTION WHICH IS HANDLED WELL IN THE GOING FORECAST.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

THE END OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS A BIT OF
A CHALLENGE WITH REGARD TO DAILY PRECIP/CONVECTIVE TRENDS. DESPITE
MAINTAINING OR REDEVELOPING A WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
THE FORCING AND FOCUS MECHANISMS LOOK WEAK OR EVEN VACATE THE
AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT REDEVELOPS TO THE NORTH AND THE LEE TROF
STAYS WELL TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH RATHER WEAK
FLOW AND EVEN SOME SEMBLANCE OF UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA. SO
HAVE TRIMMED POPS IN SOME AREAS OVER SPACE AND TIME. IF THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS IS CORRECT...THEN CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK TO
INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROF MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ON THE RELATIVE
MILD TO WARM SIDE WHICH SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSER TO MAY CLIMO.

DARMOFAL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

LITTLE AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR ALL LOCATIONS. JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON FOR RSL/SLN/HUT BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BY THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SMITH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    49  85  59  89 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      49  86  59  90 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          48  83  59  89 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        47  83  59  88 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   48  84  60  88 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         48  89  59  93 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      49  89  57  92 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          48  86  59  92 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       48  86  59  91 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     47  81  59  87 /  20   0   0   0
CHANUTE         45  80  57  87 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            45  79  58  87 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    46  81  58  87 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$