Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 221949
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
249 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS...AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
BE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS VEERING AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR AT LEAST THE WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...PER GOING
FORECAST. DECENT SUNSHINE AND WARMING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT
HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR SATURDAY.
ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT VIA A 55 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK INSTABILITY NORTHWEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING...STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH/LOW MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT
FOR ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT
THIS IS CONTINGENT ON MUCIN BEING OVERCOME. WILL KEEP STORM
PROBABILITIES AT 20-30% IN CENTRAL KS.

THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS WILL EJECT NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHILE AN
UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN STATES. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...A DRYLINE IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE DRYLINE. COMBINED WITH HIGHS NEAR 80
DEGREES...MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ARE PLAUSIBLE. MODERATELY-STRONG
MID-LEVEL FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE
WESTERLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS OF 40-45 KNOTS. THINKING WEAK LIFT
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AND SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL
INITIATE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SEPARATED SEVERE STORMS TOWARD MID-LATE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY EVOLVE INTO A SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO OF
STORMS SUNDAY EVENING OVER EASTERN KANSAS...AS A LOW-LEVEL JET
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPS. THE PREDOMINATE THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL.

A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
INTO KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT...STALLING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTH-CENTRAL THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS.
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE POOLING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT...WARRANTING LOW PROBABILITIES (20-30%) OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS PROGGED TO EJECT EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT
WHILE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT. BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CORNBELT...AND THE DRYLINE
PUSHED OUT OF EASTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z/22ND GFS AND ECMWF
WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN YESTERDAY...THE ECMWF REMAINS SLIGHTLY
FASTER WITH THE EJECTION. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE WARM SECTOR WILL
DEVELOP NORTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS DURING
TUESDAY...WHILE THE UPPER SYSTEM LAGS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. WITH
SOME INSOLATION AND MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS...VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO MATERIALIZE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WHICH MAY
RETREAT WESTWARD SOME TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO JUST WEST OF HIGHWAY
14...DUE TO MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY
DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON (21-01Z) GIVEN
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND MID-LEVEL COOLING SPREADING IN FROM THE
WEST...IN CONJUNCTION WITH DRYLINE CONVERGENCE. SEVERE STORM
COVERAGE MAY INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH EJECTS OUT IN A NEGATIVE TILT
FASHION...IN CONCERT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE
WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONG...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS LATE TUES PM/EVE...STORM MODES
MAY BECOME MORE COMPLICATED BY LATE IN THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL
DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUN ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN TODAY AND
MONDAY...WHICH COULD HAVE FORECAST IMPLICATIONS REGARDING TIMING
OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WARM SECTOR PLACEMENT...AND THE HIGHEST
SEVERE THREAT AREA. SUFFICE IT TO SAY...SOME HIGHER-END SEVERE
REPORTS ARE PLAUSIBLE WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.
THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY TOP GFS ANALOGS OF PRIOR SEVERE WEATHER
PATTERNS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE SOME LIGHT FOG OVER SE KS ALONG WITH
STRONG SOUTH WINDS SAT.

UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER LOW
TRACKS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME IFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN WORKING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST KS WITH SOME OF THIS POSSIBLY AFFECTING
KCNU IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...THESE CIGS SHOULD NOT
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SE KS SAT
MORNING AND TO GET THE BALL ROLLING WILL JUST RUN WITH SOME 5SM AT
KCNU. SOUTH WINDS WILL RAMP UP EARLY SAT AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED
30 MPH SPEEDS POSSIBLE WEST OF I-135 WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 40.

LAWSON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    49  80  58  80 /   0   0  10  30
HUTCHINSON      49  81  59  81 /   0   0  20  30
NEWTON          49  80  58  79 /   0   0  10  30
ELDORADO        50  80  58  79 /   0   0  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   50  80  58  80 /   0   0   0  30
RUSSELL         52  83  58  79 /  10  10  30  20
GREAT BEND      52  82  58  79 /  10  10  30  20
SALINA          49  82  59  81 /   0   0  30  30
MCPHERSON       49  81  58  80 /   0   0  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     50  80  57  79 /   0   0   0  20
CHANUTE         49  79  57  78 /   0   0   0  20
IOLA            50  79  57  78 /   0   0   0  20
PARSONS-KPPF    50  79  57  79 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...RBL



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