Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 042055
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
255 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THIS AFTERNOON...WEST WINDS FROM 10 TO 20 MPH ARE COMBINING WITH
SUN-DRENCHED SKIES TO SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 40S IN MOST
AREAS. NOT SURPRISINGLY TEMPERATURES IN BARTON & RUSSELL COUNTIES
ARE STRUGGLING MIGHTILY...AS THE WEST WINDS ARE COMING IN OFF THE
MASSIVE SNOW FIELD...ESPECIALLY IN RUSSELL COUNTY WHERE THE 1 PM
TEMPERATURES HAD ONLY REACHED THE UPPER 20S. BARTON COUNTY HAS
REACHED THE MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

TONIGHT-FRI NIGHT:
THIS AFTERNOON...THE STRONG UPPER-DECK LONGWAVE THAT SURGED SE FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS KS...OK AND TX CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
AS IT HAS NOW BEGUN TO SURGE DUE E TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AS
THIS VERY INTENSE LONGWAVE SURGES E ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT
THE NEXT IN AN ASSEMBLY LINE OF UPPER-DECK WAVES THAT IS CROSSING
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT VENTURES
SE. THIS INTENSE SHORTWAVE SHOULD REACH THE NM/TX PANHANDLE BORDER
EARLY FRI MORNING WHERE/WHEN IT`LL STRENGTHEN EVEN FURTHER ON FRI.
FRI NIGHT...THIS WAVE WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH AN EXTREMELY INTENSE
UPPER CYCLONE THAT`LL MOVE SE ALONG THE SWRN SHORES OF HUDSON BAY.
THE INTENSE UPPER-DECK WAVE WILL CROSS TX LATE FRI NIGHT...DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT SE ACROSS KS. THE MOISTURE MIGRATING N/NE TOWARD THEN
ACROSS SE KS IS MEAGER BUT WITH IMPRESSIVE LIFT...THERE REMAINS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIXTURE FOR SOUTHEAST KS
FRI NIGHT.

THIS WEEKEND:
NICE WEATHER AWAITS THE NEIGHBORHOOD FOR AS THE INTENSE UPPER-DECK
WAVE SURGES E ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON SAT RIDGING WILL PUNCH
N/NE ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH THE NEXT INTENSE SHORTWAVE SPRINTING
SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT & SAT NIGHT INDUCING SFC TROFFING
OVER THE WRN PLAINS...EXCELLENT DOWNSLOPE WOULD RESULT TO PRODUCE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

AS THE CONTINUALLY-STRENGTHENING UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE MS VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT (WHERE & WHEN IT`LL UNDERGO RAPID CYCLOGENESIS) ALL OF
THE CENTRAL THIRD OF CONUS WILL BE UNDER A VERY STRONG N/NW REGIME
THRU TUE NIGHT. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES E ACROSS THE OH VALLEY MON &
TUE...ARCTIC AIR WILL BE INJECTED FROM THE SASKATCHEWAN/ONTARIO
BORDER THROUGH THE UPPER & MID MS VALLEY. THE RESULT IS AN E-W
ORIENTED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES SITUATED OVER EASTERN KS WHERE BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE
SHARP INVERTED RIDGE KNIFING IN FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

WEAK SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS IS EXPECTED
BY FRIDAY MORNING...THOUGH GENERALLY CLEAR UNTIL LATE IN THE
FORECAST VALID PERIOD.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25  50  28  53 /   0  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      23  48  26  50 /   0   0  10   0
NEWTON          23  48  27  49 /   0  10  10   0
ELDORADO        25  49  28  51 /   0  10  20   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   27  51  29  53 /   0  10  20   0
RUSSELL         17  39  21  42 /   0  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      20  42  22  45 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          20  45  25  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       22  47  25  47 /   0   0  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     28  52  30  52 /   0   0  20   0
CHANUTE         26  51  30  51 /   0   0  20   0
IOLA            25  50  29  50 /   0   0  20   0
PARSONS-KPPF    27  51  29  51 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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