Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 190959
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
359 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 323 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Today:
Front moving through Central KS at this time is being aided by
good surge of cold air over western Nebraska. Generally based
today`s forecast on RAP which seemed to have best handle front and
cold air. Front should slow/stall late today in response to
lowering surface pressure in the west. Expecting showers and a few
thunderstorms to break out later this morning or more likely this
afternoon in southeast KS given approaching front/good upper
support and moisture influx. Temperatures should recover a bit
this afternoon where clouds thin/clear, but eastern extent of
clearing is rather tenuous, so afternoon temperatures may be
optimistic.

Tonight:
Some freezing drizzle possible tonight from warm air advection
over shallow cold air in central Kansas and the Flint Hills.
Amounts/extent are not certain, but appears that accumulations
would mostly be a trace. Held off on an advisory at this time.
Day shift can reassess with this mornings model runs and a better
fix on position of front.

Tuesday-Wednesday:
With longwave trough remaining well to the west, surface boundary
will likely meander somewhere in the area through this period.
Given impressive baroclinic zone with front, large potential for
errors with temperatures and precipitation type. This is evident
in the 35 degree range in forecast high temperatures on Tuesday
across the forecast area. Appears that colder air will sink south
Tuesday night and Wednesday. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 323 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

More significant piece of energy will eject from western trough
during this period. Fair amount of discrepancy on strength and
timing of this between GFS/ECMWF. Per WPC discussion, consistency
has been a bit lacking so confidence is below average. That said,
quasi-stationary boundary and periodic ripples in flow will set
stage for multiple chances of precipitation. The location of
front will play heavily into precipitation type and precipitation
location. And of course this will also significantly impact
temperatures. For now, went along with initialization blend.
-Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Increasing low level moisture advection will lead to low clouds
continuing to increase all the way into central KS. Low clouds have
progressed much further NW and north than previously thought. With
KICT, KHUT, KCNU all seeing IFR cigs. The low clouds will linger
tonight as low level moisture continues to funnel into the region.
This will lead to continued IFR/MVFR cigs for most locations
overnight into early Mon.

A cold front is still expected to move into central KS on Mon
morning, reaching KICT by around 18z. This will shift winds around
to the north and diminish IFR ceilings. Latest short term model
solutions now push the front to the KS/OK border by around 23-00z,
before stalling it out for the evening hours.

Increasing low level moisture ahead of the front, will also lead to
a chance of showers and possibly some thunderstorms increasing near
the KCNU taf site early on Mon morning. Think initial saturation
will lead to some drizzle for KCNU, but think by sunrise some widely
scattered showers and even a few storms will be over SE KS. So will
add this mention to the KCNU taf site.

Ketcham


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 323 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Gusty winds and warm air ahead of the cold front will briefly
produce very high GFDI values in southeast KS this morning. Once
front moves through, conditions should improve. Otherwise no
indications of serious fire weather threats through the rest of
the week as cooler air and generally lighter winds are forecast.
-Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    55  42  43  17 /  20  70  40   0
Hutchinson      46  33  37  14 /  10  50  20   0
Newton          54  37  38  14 /  10  70  40   0
ElDorado        59  43  45  17 /  40  80  60   0
Winfield-KWLD   65  50  51  19 /  50  80  60   0
Russell         35  21  30  10 /  10  20  10  10
Great Bend      39  24  32  11 /  10  20  10  10
Salina          41  27  34  13 /  10  50  20   0
McPherson       44  32  35  13 /  10  50  20   0
Coffeyville     66  61  63  24 /  70  80  90  30
Chanute         65  53  56  21 /  80  90  90  20
Iola            65  52  54  20 /  80  90  90  10
Parsons-KPPF    65  58  60  24 /  80  80  90  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...Ketcham
FIRE WEATHER...PJH



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