Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 312351
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
651 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE KANSAS REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT SEASONABLY VERY
WARM SUMMER TEMPERATURES IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE TWO
PRIMARY AREAS OF FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE
PERIOD...ONE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WHERE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE OSCILLATING NORTH AND SOUTH...ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SECOND AREA WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH PERTURBATIONS TRAPPED IN THE PERSISTENT MONSOONAL
FLOW PLUME ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. OUR AREA WILL BE
MOSTLY IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FOCUS AREAS OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THERE ARE SIGNALS IN THE MODELS THAT A MODEST
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IN OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A SIMILAR
SCENARIO MAY OCCUR AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST
ALREADY REFLECTS ABOVE THINKING WITH LITTLE CHANGES NECESSARY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SHORT-MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE...MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW END (20-40%)
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
MID-LATE WEEK LESSENS CONSIDERABLY...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF AT ODDS
ON THE DEPTH OF UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...
AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH IN THE SOUTH. IN
GENERAL...THE IDEA OF TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
SEASONAL AVERAGES...AND LESSER PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN OUR
AREA SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS AND VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE 24-HR
PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE AIRMASS STABILIZES.
OTHER STORMS OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA MAY PROPAGATE INTO NORTH
CENTRAL KS LATER THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  92  71  93 /  10  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      69  93  71  94 /  10  10  20  20
NEWTON          69  92  70  93 /  10  10  20  20
ELDORADO        69  92  70  93 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  92  71  93 /  20  10  20  20
RUSSELL         67  93  69  94 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      67  92  69  93 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          69  95  71  96 /  10  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       68  93  71  94 /  10  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     69  92  69  93 /  20  10  10  10
CHANUTE         68  92  68  93 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            68  92  68  93 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    69  92  68  93 /  20   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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