Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
000
FXUS63 KICT 121138
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
638 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Thunderstorm chances and strong/severe weather potential this
  evening through Thursday evening.

* Continued above average temperatures through Wednesday, with a
  cool down commencing by Thursday-Thursday night from the north.

* Elevated grassfire danger concerns today and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Marginal low-level moisture return will be underway today across
southeast Kansas, ahead of a fleet-footed shortwave and associated
weak surface trough. Despite the marginal moisture (low 50s
dewpoints), strong heating into the 70s to near 80 degrees may be
just enough to erode capping issues for a few isolated thunderstorms
this evening from Greenwood, Elk, and Chautauqua counties on east.
Steep mid-level lapse rates should yield around 1000 J/kg of CAPE,
with effective deep layer shear of 30-40 kts, which is enough for a
strong to marginally severe threat (dime size hail and 50 mph winds
or so). But again, this threat should remain fairly isolated.

Attention then turns to strong to severe threat Wednesday late
afternoon and evening, as a potent shortwave approaching from the
southwest establishes a rather deep surface low across Kansas. Model
consensus sharpens a warm frontal zone generally along the I-70
corridor, with a sharpening dryline further south along the I-135/I-
35 corridors. Thinking the global models are mixing the dryline too
far east, with reality probably closer to the further west NAM/RAP
solutions. Thinking the greatest potential for thunderstorms will be
north of the warm front (mainly along/north of I-70 across north-
central and northeast KS) Wednesday late afternoon through evening.
Moderate instability coupled with decent vertical shear will be
supportive of strong to severe storms capable of large hail and
damaging winds. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially for
any supercell ingesting the strong low-level shear along and just
north of the warm front.

Further south along the dryline, the airmass will likely be capped
due to warmer mid-level temperatures and weaker synoptic forcing.
However, some mid-level cooling should take place during the late
afternoon and evening hours, which may be enough to breach the cap
for an isolated thunderstorm or two. Strong deep layer shear
perpendicular to the dryline would favor supercells capable of all
severe hazards. Once again though, this will likely be a conditional
and isolated threat.

Far southeast Kansas may have a slight chance for storms Thursday
afternoon-evening, along the lingering trailing frontal zone.
However, thinking these chances are not great given NIL upper
forcing and weakening convergence along the frontal zone.

Near to below average temperatures are expected in wake of this
weather system Thursday night through Monday. Model consensus brings
a reinforcing shot of cooler Canadian air south Sunday-Monday, which
may keep daytime highs only in the 40s to near 50 degrees both those
days. Model consensus supports a period of mostly dry weather into
at least mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

A stout low-level jet around 1500-2000 ft AGL will support low-
level wind shear for a few hours early this morning over central
and eastern Kansas.

Southwesterly surface winds will be rather stout/gusty today
over mainly eastern Kansas, with winds gradually switching to
west-northwesterly from west to east as a surface trough
progresses through the region.

A few isolated thunderstorms are possible over far east-
southeast Kansas late this afternoon and evening, but chances
are too low at this time to include in the CNU TAF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Stout and gusty south-southwest winds will support very high
grassland fire danger today, mainly over south-central and southeast
Kansas. Winds will gradually switch to the west-northwest across
central Kansas today. Very high grassland fire danger is also
expected Wednesday due to continued stout/gusty south winds,
although returning low-level moisture should keep humidity values
up, so critical fire weather concerns should be confined to areas
generally southwest of Wichita`s forecast area.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...ADK


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.