Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 251209
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
609 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE RACING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE KICKING UP THE NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD INCREASE
EVEN MORE ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT WITNESS SOME SUNSHINE
TODAY. THE SUNSHINE WOULD ENHANCE THE DEEP ADIABATIC MIXING IN THE
1000-850MB LAYER...THUS GOING WIND ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK. THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH WARMER AIR
RETURNS TO KANSAS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN DOWN SLOPE
EFFECTS WILL BE AT A PREMIUM ON MONDAY...WITH A STRONG
WEST/NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
SORE INTO THE 60S AND 70S OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...AND NEW RECORD
HIGHS COULD BE BROKEN THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ONE MORE WARM AND DRY WEATHER DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER A FLEET-FOOTED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES COME
THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HEARTLAND
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE AREA. CURRENT LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT IT WILL NOT BE A MAJOR COOL DOWN LIKE WE
SAW EARLY THIS MONTH...AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK LOW FOR
THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY PERIOD WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE BAJA REGION...AND NORTHWEST FLOW CLIPPER
SYSTEM HAVING LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS AND LOWER CEILINGS
OVER SE KS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAST MOVING UPPER IMPULSE DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND APPROACHING THE OZARKS. AN AREA
OF SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND EVENTUALLY SE KS THIS MORNING.
STRONG NW WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE UPPER WAVE WITH GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT SE KS AFTER 15Z WITH
KCNU THE MOST LIKELY SITE TO BE AFFECTED. THESE LOWER CIGS SHOULD
RISE TO VFR LEVELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE WINDS SHOULD DIE
OFF QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  30  68  37 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      50  29  69  35 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          49  29  67  37 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        49  29  67  37 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  30  67  36 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         49  29  70  36 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      51  29  71  36 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          48  29  68  35 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       48  29  68  35 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     50  29  64  35 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         47  28  62  34 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            45  28  61  34 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    49  28  63  34 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$



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