Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 161953
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
253 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Tonight....
A strong thermal ridge in the region will continue to allow hot
temperatures to dominate this afternoon. There is plenty of
instability to support another round of convection this
afternoon however, there is also a very strong cap in place over
the central and southern portions of the CWA. The best instability
is currently located over the northern portions of the CWA. A
trough will be moving through the CWA this afternoon and will
allow for some scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. A
few could be strong with an isolated severe storm is possible.
However, with the lack of a strong cold pool, it is doubtful any
of the thunderstorm activity will last long after sunset.

Saturday through Sunday...
Moisture transport will continue through the region and allow
temperatures to increase as well. High temperatures Saturday will
approach or exceed the century mark. These temperatures may come
close to current records. Unfortunately, these temperatures will
be accompanied by high dew point temperatures driving up the RH.
This will make heat indices climb over 105 for many areas which
are heat advisory levels for much of the afternoon. During the
afternoon, a cold front will begin to approach the CWA. This front
will provide a significant amount of forcing which is expected to
over come the cap and start round of showers and thunderstorms
during the late afternoon and into the evening hours. This
activity is expected to develop in north central Kansas and then
work its way into the CWA through the late afternoon. By the
evening hours, widespread thunderstorms are expected, some of
which could be severe with the primary threat being high winds.
Once the front comes through during the late evening and overnight
hours, northwesterly flow will take over and temperatures will
fall to more normal levels for Sunday and Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Northwest flow will continue through Tuesday and will keep
temperatures near or just above normal for this time of year. By
Tuesday night, the flow will turn around back to the south and
allow the moisture transport to return to the region. Additionally
another trough will be coming through the region providing the
needed forcing for scattered showers and thunderstorms to come
through the region once again. This active trend is expected
through much of next week as another round of showers and
thunderstorms appear likely for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Widely scattered storms may develop southwestward from Nebraska
into central Kansas late this afternoon/evening, perhaps affecting
terminals near I-70 (RSL,GBD,SLN), with a much lesser probability
further south with a stronger cap indicated. Will include a VCTS
at the above-mentioned terminals for a few hours early this
evening. Gusty winds will be the main threat with any storms near
the terminals. Otherwise, southerly winds this afternoon into
tonight are expected. A pre-frontal trough will shift winds to
northwest Saturday morning in central/northern Kansas.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    74 100  67  83 /  20  10  60  10
Hutchinson      71 100  64  83 /  20  10  50  10
Newton          73  99  65  81 /  20  10  60  20
ElDorado        73  99  66  81 /  20  10  60  20
Winfield-KWLD   75 100  68  83 /  10   0  60  20
Russell         68  99  62  83 /  30   0  40  10
Great Bend      69  99  63  82 /  20   0  40  10
Salina          73  98  65  83 /  30   0  50  10
McPherson       72  99  64  82 /  30  10  50  20
Coffeyville     74  95  69  83 /  10   0  60  30
Chanute         73  96  67  82 /  20  10  60  40
Iola            73  95  67  82 /  20  10  60  40
Parsons-KPPF    75  95  68  82 /  20   0  60  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...JMC



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