Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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172
FXUS63 KICT 240441
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1141 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Still could see an isolated thunderstorm for the next couple of
hours, but increasing low level CIN and no mid-level frontal
boundary to focus elevated activity should limit thunderstorm
chances overnight. Otherwise warm and muggy conditions will
prevail tonight with rich low level moisture remaining in place
across the region.

Jakub

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Short-term forecast highlights focus around thunderstorm chances
this afternoon-evening through Thursday night, with an attendant
threat for severe weather and heavy rainfall/flooding. Heavy
rain/flooding threat will be highest Wed evening-night and Thu
evening-night.

Convergence associated with lee trough approaching from the west
in concert with subtle upper disturbances associated with an upper
jet max currently progressing northeast over Mid-America could
support a small cluster or two of thunderstorms late this
afternoon-evening generally along/west of Salina-Wichita-
Wellington. Atmosphere is strong unstable and weakly capped. Given
weak forcing and subtle convergence, probably won`t be looking at
widespread activity. However, strong instability and so-so lapse
rates along with marginal deep layer shear will support a low to
modest severe threat of large hail and damaging winds with
anything that can form, along with locally heavy rain. Given
shortwave ridging approaching from the southwest, activity should
tend to wane by midnight.

Attention then turns to severe weather and especially heavy
rain/flooding threat Wed afternoon/evening through Thu night, as a
cold front approaches from the north, eventually stalling west-
east somewhere in vicinity of the KS/OK border. A number of
ingredients are expected to come together to produce the potential
for numerous training thunderstorms in the vicinity of the
frontal zone, including: rich low-level moisture, modest nighttime
low-level jet, mid-upper flow parallel to frontal zone and
persistent lift underneath right entrance region of upper jet.
Given the modest to poor mid-level lapse rates and high
precipitable water airmass, locally very heavy rainfall rates
appear likely with this activity, along with an attendant threat
of localized flash flooding. Greatest threat area for Wed
afternoon-eve appears to be generally north of Hutchinson-
Cottonwood Falls, with the threat shifting into mainly southern KS
for Thu afternoon-evening. Could also be looking at a handful of
severe storms Wed-Thu, although thinking marginal deep layer shear
and unimpressive lapse rates will probably support a lower end
severe threat of quarter size hail and wet microbursts.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Unsettled weather should linger through the weekend and into next
week, as overall mid-upper troughiness remains just to the west
of the region, interacting with a continued moist/unstable
airmass. Specifics remain low, so just held onto 20-30 pops for
now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

VFR conditions expected overnight with high clouds floating
overhead. Meanwhile a frontal boundary will sink slowly southward
during the day on Wednesday. Thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the front in the afternoon and will linger into Wednesday
night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    75  92  69  82 /  20  30  60  40
Hutchinson      74  91  66  79 /  20  50  70  40
Newton          73  90  67  80 /  20  40  60  40
ElDorado        74  91  68  83 /  10  30  60  40
Winfield-KWLD   76  93  70  86 /  10  30  40  40
Russell         69  85  61  76 /  10  50  50  30
Great Bend      71  89  62  77 /  10  50  50  30
Salina          73  91  66  79 /  20  50  60  30
McPherson       74  90  66  79 /  20  50  70  40
Coffeyville     75  95  72  91 /  10  30  20  40
Chanute         74  92  70  87 /  10  30  30  40
Iola            74  92  70  86 /  10  30  40  40
Parsons-KPPF    75  94  72  89 /  10  30  30  40

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDJ
SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...CDJ



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