Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 252015
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
315 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY HAVE ONE SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...STORMS FROM THIS MORNING PUSHED AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL KS AND WHAT IS LEFT OF THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO
EXTEND FROM KEMP TO SOUTH OF KDDC WHERE SOME TCU AND ISO STORMS
ARE DEVELOPING. MEANWHILE...A MORE SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NW KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW SOUTH OF
KDDC WITH THESE STORMS MOVING VERY LITTLE. THERE IS A VERY SMALL
CHANCE THAT ONE OF THESE STORMS MAY AFFECT THE FAR WESTERN FRINGES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE OVER NW KS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NW KS/SW
NEBRASKA SHOULD TRACK EAST OR EVEN SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST WITH THE NW
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVING THE BEST SHOT AT STORMS
TONIGHT.

THERE SHOULD BE AN MCS TUE MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH THIS ACTIVITY TRACKING EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNCAPPED ON
TUE...CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING IS LOW DUE TO LACK OF A
SURFACE FOCUS WITH THE BETTER STORM CHANCES REMAINING OVER
NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHERN KS. THE GFS AND NAM AGREE ON A LEAD
PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH A JET MAX ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD
TO CONTINUED STORM CHANCES OVER NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KS WITH
CENTRAL KS POSSIBLY GETTING IN ON SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY FOR WED.

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE OUT
INTO WESTERN KS WED NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU. THIS WILL START THE
TREND OF HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST WITH AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF I-135 HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCES WED-THU.

EVEN THOUGH TEMPS MAYBE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER FOR TUE...THEY
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS WED GETTING CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS. THE SLOW MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT
CENTRAL KS WED AND MAY KNOCK HIGHS DOWN INTO THE LOW 90S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

THE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT TIME PERIOD LOOK TO BE OUR BEST
SHOT AT SEEING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE GFS IS
QUITE A BIT FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF. IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY THEN MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WOULD BE DRY BY SAT MORNING. FOR NOW WILL PLAY THE MIDDLE
GROUND BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS AND LEAVE IT WET THROUGH SAT. ALONG
WITH THE WET CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH COOLER TEMPS IN THE 80S AND
LOW 90S. BY SAT NIGHT...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS THRU
NORTHEAST KS TO CENTRAL IOWA AT 17 UTC. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE LITTLE...PERHAPS DRIFT A BIT NORTH WITH STRONG
HEATING/MIXING SOUTH OF IT THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP MID-LATE AFTERNOON NEAR AND ESPECIALLY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHER STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST KS INTO MUCH OF NEBRASKA IN AREA OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE RSL AND SLN TERMINALS HAVE
A BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO HAVE STORMS IN THE VICINITY THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE TAF SITES DRY FOR
NOW. THE FRONT MAY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AM...AIDED BY STORM OUTFLOW. THIS COULD AGAIN
SHIFT WINDS TO NORTH AT RSL AND SLN.

JMC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  99  75  94 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      72 100  73  94 /  20  20  20  20
NEWTON          73  98  74  93 /  10  20  20  20
ELDORADO        73  99  73  93 /  10  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  98  74  94 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         68  95  69  91 /  50  50  40  40
GREAT BEND      69  95  70  92 /  20  30  30  30
SALINA          72  98  73  93 /  20  30  30  30
MCPHERSON       72  98  73  93 /  20  20  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     73  98  74  95 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         73  98  73  94 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            72  97  72  93 /  10  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    73  98  73  96 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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