Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 062318
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
518 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. TEMPERATURES REMAINED LOWER
OVER THE SNOWPACK ACROSS RSL COUNTY WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE AREA BOTH DAYS. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS
FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COULD
DAMPEN THE DIURNAL RISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT MAY BACK INTO THE
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE BETTER PUSH OF
CANADIAN AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED ALONG THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE IN SPEED AND
BECOME GUSTY BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE EXACT MAGNITUDE OF THESE GUSTS WILL DEPEND ON
HOW DEEP MIXING BECOMES. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THIS MAY DETER THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIND GUSTS
GREATER THAN 35/40KT AS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT. REGARDLESS...EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO APPROACH AND/OR
EXCEED 30MPH ON SUNDAY.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
30S AND 40S PRODUCING A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE HIGHEST VALUES WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS. OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED BOTH
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    30  56  27  43 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      30  55  26  43 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          30  54  25  40 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        30  56  26  42 /   0   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   30  59  27  44 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         28  42  23  35 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      28  46  24  39 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          30  54  25  41 /   0   0  10   0
MCPHERSON       30  52  25  40 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     32  59  28  42 /   0   0  10   0
CHANUTE         32  57  27  40 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            32  55  27  38 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    32  57  27  41 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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