Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 250804
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...AND ELEVATED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HELPING TO DEEPEN A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL OCCUR TODAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS...IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA STATE LINE BY 18Z-21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM-
WRF/GFS/SREF INDICATE 55-60 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT DEWPOINTS ADVECTING
NORTH TO ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE BASED ON UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT
EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE NAM-WRF MAY BE A BIT ROBUST WITH
MUCAPES...A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/SREF/NAM12/RAP13 WOULD INDICATE
POTENTIALLY 1200-2000 J/KG MUCAPES ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 50-60 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES FROM 18Z-21Z...WITH A COLD FRONT SLIDING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH KANSAS PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT IN THE STORM
TARGET AREA FROM MID-LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP BETWEEN 18-21Z ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
KS...PERSISTING INTO EARLY EVENING NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER IN
SOUTHEAST KS. THERE WILL BE A NARROW WINDOW THREAT OF SURFACE-BASED
SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY CLOSE TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
ALTHOUGH ELEVATED MARGINAL HAILERS COULD AFFECT AREAS AS FAR NORTH
AS HIGHWAY 400. THE MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS FOR THOSE COUNTIES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER...WITH A
SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO FOR A BRIEF WINDOW AROUND MID
AFTERNOON WITH BACKED SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE WARM FRONT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.20 TO 1.40 INCHES COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL PRESS SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS THIS EVENING...POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN THE SOUTH. STRONG/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AREA-WIDE.
SUBSIDENCE WILL SET IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY ALLOWING CLEARING. NOTICEABLY COOLER (BUT MORE SEASONAL)
AIR WILL INFILTRATE SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS.
ONLY A MODEST CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN KANSAS...AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES DROP INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

A GRADUAL DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS PROGGED TO
OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MORE OF A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE PICTURE FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE GFS HAS A SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR AREA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE THIS DEPICTION.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT 20-30% IN MAINLY
THE SOUTH FOR NOW.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THIS FCST IS A SFC CYCLONE THAT SHOULD
DEVELOP NEAR THE TX/OK PANHANDLES FROM ~09Z-12Z. THE CYCLONE WILL
STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES SE OVEER THE WRN RED RIVER WED
AFTN. WITH TIME WINDS THAT ARE GENERALLY LGT ELY WILL BACK TOWARD
THE NE & INCREASE CONSIDERABLY WED AFTN WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS FROM
17-22KT/20-25MPH WITH GUSTS ~30KTS/35MPH LKLY IN MOST AREAS. CNTRL
KS TERMINALS WOULD EXPERIENCE THE STRONGER NE WINDS WHERE THE NE
GRADIENT IS TIGHTER. SHRA & TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP OVER ALL OF SE KS
AND MUCH OF SC KS (ESPECIALLY SE OF A LINE FROM KEWK KICT) EARLY
IN THE AFTN. THE MOST SGFNT TSRA SHOULD OCCUR OVER KCNU WHERE HAIL
PERHAPS NICKEL-SIZED AND ~40KT GUSTS ARE BOTH POSSIBLE OVER KCNU
UNTIL ~26/00Z. YOU SHOULD MONITOR FCSTS COVERING THE 18Z TO 26/00Z
PERIOD CLOSELY AS THIS WOULD BE THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD (ESPECIALLY
FOR KCNU & KICT).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-30 MPH WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL
DRIVE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES INTO VERY HIGH FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 35-55% RANGE...SO NOT EXPECTING A CRITICAL DAY...BUT HIGHLY
ELEVATED NONETHELESS. FIRE DANGER SHOULD LESSEN CONSIDERABLY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH COOLER AIR AND LIGHTER WINDS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  34  57  33 /  50  50  10  20
HUTCHINSON      67  32  57  32 /  40  30  10  20
NEWTON          66  34  54  32 /  50  40  10  20
ELDORADO        70  35  55  33 /  60  50  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  35  57  34 /  60  60  10  20
RUSSELL         59  29  59  30 /  30  20  10  20
GREAT BEND      62  30  59  30 /  30  20  10  20
SALINA          62  31  55  31 /  40  30  10  20
MCPHERSON       64  32  55  32 /  50  30  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     72  40  56  34 /  70  80  10  20
CHANUTE         71  36  54  33 /  60  70  10  30
IOLA            70  36  53  32 /  60  70  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    72  38  56  33 /  70  80  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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