Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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981
FXUS63 KICT 221035
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
535 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

...Updated for 12z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Modest elevated moisture transport may still support isolated
convection early this morning along/north of I-70, though better
chances will remain north of the area. Otherwise, the unseasonably
warm southerly flow will continue over the area with highs topping
90F again in many locales. Russell may challenge its record of 93F
set just last year. Friday looks to be quite breezy as well as
unseasonably warm with plenty of sunshine. The main focus will be
with increasing precip chances Friday night through Saturday night
in advance of the developing western CONUS longwave upper
trof/closed low. Forcing for ascent and low level moisture
transport will increase late Friday night through Saturday with
scattered convection expected to develop and spread northeast
across the area. The more numerous to widespread convection is
still anticipated Saturday evening through Saturday night with a
risk for heavy rainfall.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Spread in the medium range models tend to lower confidence a bit
through early next week. The GFS continues to show a deeper upper
trof axis extending across the Plains from the main vortex over
the Upper Midwest, whereas the ECMWF shows more stream separation
placing Kansas in a bridged/weaker shear axis between its solution
of a closed/cutoff low over the far southwest CONUS and the
northern stream trof over the Upper Midwest. That said, there is
general consensus and higher confidence on much cooler over the
area with decreasing precip chances, though timing on its demise
is still a bit uncertain.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 535 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Another quiet VFR day across central, south-central and southeast
Kansas. Breezy south winds will continue, with gusts exceeding 20
kts generally west of I-135. While a stray shower/thunderstorm
cannot be completely ruled out early this morning in the vicinity
of Russell, Great Bend or Salina, probabilities are too low for
TAF mention.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    91  67  90  70 /  10   0   0  20
Hutchinson      92  67  91  69 /  10   0   0  20
Newton          90  66  89  69 /  10   0   0  20
ElDorado        90  66  89  69 /  10   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   91  68  90  71 /   0   0   0  10
Russell         92  67  91  66 /  10   0   0  40
Great Bend      93  66  92  66 /  10   0   0  40
Salina          93  68  92  69 /  10   0   0  20
McPherson       92  67  91  69 /  10   0   0  20
Coffeyville     91  66  91  70 /   0   0   0  10
Chanute         89  66  89  69 /  10   0   0  10
Iola            88  65  88  68 /  10   0   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    90  66  90  70 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...ADK



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