Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 221210
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
710 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

What had been a stalled out front ended up moving much further
south than previously thought, ending up near the Red River
Valley. Low to mid level moisture is gradually returning to the
area, as witnessed by the increasing mid level strato-cu deck
across the area. Weak isentropic lift associated with this
moisture return continues to lead to a few festering showers over
extreme SE KS along the KS/Ok border. Expect this shallow
isentropic lift in the 290-300k levels to continue to lead to a
widely scattered shower chance for southeast KS thru this
afternoon as a weak wave in the mid layers moves across the
forecast area.

Expect the low level moisture to stay rather shallow for tonight
into early Thu as the low level moisture transport continues across
the area.  Saturation in the low layers may actually lead to a
chance of light rain but more likely a widespread drizzle chance by
late tonight into Thu morning across most of the area as warm
advection/moisture transport continues with capping inversion above
this shallow moisture return.

Thu still looks to be the start of a fairly active and more
progressive pattern for the plains, as a series of shortwaves begin
to come across the srn Rockies, with the flow pattern becoming zonal
to more southwesterly.  The first shortwave is expected to move out
into the plains on Thu afternoon with a low pressure area developing
over ern CO.  Expect showers/thunderstorms to develop along a
dryline expected to be associated with this low, across wrn KS by
late Thu afternoon/evening, with some of this storm activity
possibly making it into Central KS by late Thu night.

Models show the main shortwave deepening and becoming vertically
stacked as it moves into the plains by Fri am, with the main surface
low trending further to the SE with each new model run.  Current
model runs shift it SE along the Red River valley by Fri afternoon,
with a prominent dryline and dry slot wrapping all the way northeast
into the wrn sections of the forecast area by Fri afternoon.

Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop along this dryline as
afternoon heating increases for areas west of I-135 for Fri
afternoon.  Depth of moisture/instability will be questionable/
lacking for a widespread severe weather threat, but strong bulk
shear of 65-80 kts may lead to some low topped linear strong/severe
storms with hail up to quarter sized and damaging downburst winds
the main concern. Basically a high shear/low instability severe
chance for most of ern KS into Fri evening.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

The main surface low will fill as it moves east along the Red River
late Fri night or early on Sat, with wrap around showers to the
north of the low moving across most of the area thru Sat morning.

The progressive pattern looks to continue for the rest of the
weekend into the beginning of next week.  Could see a lull between
the departing system from Sat and the next system expected to move
out into the srn plains for Sun afternoon/evening.

Medium range models continue to trend further south on placement of
the surface low and timing of the Sun night system, Latest GFS/ECMWF
suggests a more southward trend, which would lead to a likely shower
and embedded thunder chance for most of srn KS for Sun
evening/night, with any severe chances now staying well south of the
forecast area.  At least areas will see another shot showers and
much needed moisture.

Beginning of the week looks like continued chances for off and on
shower and storm chances as low level moisture remains across the
area, with the progressive flow leading to areas of low pressure
moving rapidly across the plains.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 710 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Doppler indications are that areas of very light rain are possible
in Cntrl KS but with a dry layer ~5,000 ft deep only Virga should
rslt. Large & strong high pressure centered over Lake Superior wl
drift SE acrs the remainder of the Great Lakes thru 23/12Z around
which time it should be centered over Lake Erie/Lake Ontario. Sfc
winds that are easterly 10-20kts wl slowly shift twd the SE this
aftn, but moistening of the lowest 3,000ft doesn`t commence until
close to 23/00Z. As such all terminals would maintain VFR cig
status til ~22/23Z when cigs alg & W of I-135 would lwr to ~2,500
ft. Cigs would then lwr csdrbly to ~1,500ft this eve w/ such lwr`g
to first occur at KGBD & KRSL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Increasing low level cloud cover today will keep the fire danger low
as well as light rain showers will be possible across SE KS.

A very high to possibly extreme grassland fire danger returns to the
region for Thu/Fri as a strong low pressure area and gusty south
winds move into the plains. The greatest potential for an elevated
fire risk will be over Central KS for Thu afternoon.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    58  52  79  59 /  20  30  20  20
Hutchinson      56  49  79  58 /  10  20  20  20
Newton          55  49  76  57 /  10  30  20  20
ElDorado        56  50  78  58 /  20  30  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   61  53  79  59 /  20  30  20  20
Russell         56  47  81  56 /  20  20  20  30
Great Bend      56  48  81  56 /  20  20  20  30
Salina          56  49  80  59 /  20  30  20  20
McPherson       55  48  78  57 /  20  30  20  20
Coffeyville     59  52  79  59 /  30  40  10  10
Chanute         56  49  78  58 /  20  30  10  10
Iola            56  48  77  58 /  20  30  20   0
Parsons-KPPF    57  51  78  59 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...EPS
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham



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