Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 060436
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1136 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HUMID
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY INCREASING.  MISSOURI VALLEY SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS
NRN MISSOURI.  SURFACE BASED CAPE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE KS TURNPIKE...BUT LACK OF
ANY SURFACE FOCUS AND AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER CREATING A CAP WILL
PRECLUDE ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT. CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A LATE AFTERNOON STORM CHANCE ACROSS THE FLINT
HILLS...WHERE THE CAP WILL BE A LITTLE WEAKER...AS SMALL PORTION OF
THE NRN MO SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THIS AREA.

850-700H MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THE SW VEERING LOW LEVEL JET WILL
INCREASE OVER THE FLINT HILLS FOR LATE TONIGHT. WHICH COULD LEAD TO
A STORM CHANCE ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE INTO EARLY SUN
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS ALSO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS
DEVELOPING OVER NERN KS/SE NEB...WITH THIS COMPACT SYSTEM
POTENTIALLY DROPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AFFECTING SE KS AS WELL. SO
WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS FOR THESE
CHANCES.

SUN-MON: SURFACE TEMPS SLOWLY INCREASING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. COULD
ACTUALLY SEE MAX TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS...AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK MAX TEMPS WILL INCH CLOSER TO THE CENTURY
MARK. BUT THINK TEMPS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING 100...GIVEN
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...WITH MOST OF THE HEATING
GOING TO BURNING OFF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH MIXING NOT
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO MIX OUT DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S.

A WARMING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL INCREASE THE CAP ACROSS THE AREA
FOR BOTH DAYS...KEEPING ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA.

MON NIGHT-TUE: MOST OF THE PLAINS REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY FOR MON NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH INITIALLY INTO NRN KS FOR MON NIGHT...WITH IT
SAGGING OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUE. HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT MAKES ON TUE WILL BE THE REAL QUESTION. MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN A LITTLE FASTER IN SAGGING THIS FRONT INTO SRN KS BY TUE
AFTERNOON.

AS THIS FRONT SAGS SOUTH...MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG IT AND
CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 IN CENTRAL KS ON MON NIGHT...WITH THE STORM
CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS MOST OF SRN KS FOR TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THINK THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
MOST OF SRN KS FOR TUE NIGHT...AS 850-700H MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES OVER THE TOP OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. COULD SEE NUMEROUS
ROUNDS OF STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FOR TUE NIGHT...AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS FOCUSED INTO SRN KS.  LOW LEVEL
JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSING INTO THE WRN SIDE (BACKSIDE) OF THIS
CONVECTION...MAY LEAD TO TRAINING STORMS...AND POTENTIALLY SOME
HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS SETUP FOR TUE
NIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS SOME.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED ON WED...AS
THE ECMWF KEEPS PUSHING IT SOUTH INTO OK...WHILE THE GFS TRYS TO
WASH IT OUT OVER NRN OK. CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A WEAKLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS SRN KS AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM
ADVECTION AGAIN INCREASES OVER THE TOP OF THE REMNANT BOUNDARY FOR
WED EVENING. THIS WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FOR WED NIGHT.

NOT SURE HOW THE END OF THE EXTENDED WILL PLAY OUT AS THE GFS HAS
INCREASING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WARMER TEMPS. WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS MOST OF THE PLAINS ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE. BUT
MODELS SUGGEST DRIER AND WARMER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER EAST-CENTRAL KS/WEST CENTRAL MO THIS
EVENING...WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST KS...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWING ACCAS
THERE. WILL KEEP A VCTS AT CNU OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR
WITH DRY WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25
KNOTS IN THE SOUTH SUNDAY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      73  97  73  98 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          72  95  74  96 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        72  94  74  95 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         69  99  72  97 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      68  99  72  98 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          73  98  74  98 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       72  97  73  98 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     73  94  74  96 /  20  10  10  10
CHANUTE         73  93  74  94 /  30  10  10  10
IOLA            73  92  73  94 /  30  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    73  93  74  95 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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