Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 201942
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
142 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 137 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

The main forecast concerns are elevated grassland fire danger and
gusty winds through Tuesday (see fire weather discussion below).

The mid-upper level pattern will amplify, as shortwave energy over
the Pacific Northwest and south-central Canada dig southeastward
tonight into Tuesday. This will form mean longwave upper troughing
over the eastern CONUS, with upper ridging in the western CONUS.

The gusty southwesterly winds will diminish considerably early this
evening, as a low-level temperature inversion develops. In
association with the aforementioned shortwave energy, a cold front
will push southward through the forecast area late tonight into
Tuesday. This will bring a cool-down to more seasonal temperatures
for Tuesday through Wednesday night, before temperatures moderate
back above normal for Thanksgiving Day. A period of mid-high
level cloudiness is progged to move through with the frontal
passage, but otherwise dry conditions will persist.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 137 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

The medium range models were in good agreement in depicting robust
shortwave energy topping the western CONUS upper ridge, moving
across the north-central states Friday. This will help reinforce the
longwave upper trough in the eastern CONUS, with upper ridging over
the Rockies into the upcoming weekend. Lee troughing, downslope
flow, and anomalously warm 1000-850 thicknesses are progged on the
GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models on Friday ahead of the next cold
front. This setup favors near record highs (low-mid 70s) Friday
afternoon, barring substantial cloud cover, with the initialized
superblend numbers appearing too cool. Went with CONSMOS for highs
and those numbers may be a few degrees too cool. The cold front
will come through dry Friday night into Saturday, with the Gulf
effectively cut off. Cooler, more seasonal air should return over
the upcoming weekend with dry weather persisting through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Strong and gusty
southwest winds will prevail today, slackening this evening. A
cold front will move south across the area late tonight through
Tuesday morning, with cooler temperatures and strong/gusty north
winds in its wake. BKN-OVC VFR ceilings around 7,000-10,000 AGL
will spread south across the region Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 137 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

A Red Flag Warning for extreme grassland fire danger will persist
until early this evening for areas generally along/east of the
Kansas Turpnike, when the strong/gusty southwesterly winds are
progged to diminish. Minimum late afternoon relative humidities of
around 25 percent, with peak gusts of 35 to 40 mph will persist
until 23z-00z this evening.

Very high grassland fire danger is expected Tuesday afternoon across
the entire area, with northerly winds of 20 to 25 mph and gusts
around 30 mph behind a cold frontal passage. Minimum afternoon
relative humidities around 30 percent are indicated. No headlines
appear warranted at this time, however outdoor burning is highly
discouraged.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    39  57  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      36  55  23  51 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          39  53  23  48 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        40  56  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   41  58  25  49 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         36  53  23  58 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      36  54  23  57 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          37  53  22  52 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       37  54  22  50 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     41  60  25  47 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         41  56  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            40  55  23  44 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    41  58  25  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ052-053-
068>072-083-092>096-098>100.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ052-053-068>071-
083-092>094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...JMC


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