Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 141750
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1250 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The challenge for the first period will again be the timing of
the frontal passage creating a tricky temperature and
precipitation forecast for today and overnight tonight. Water
Vapor imagery again shows the Gulf of Mexico closed off but a
decent moisture train from the New Mexico and far west Texas. This
will be the primary source of moisture for the region and will
allow the a much better moisture transport set up for the region
than yesterday. The frontal system that moved into the region
yesterday has retreated to the north and west. This front will get
a push as an upper level trough comes into phase with the surface
front. This set up will allow the front to progress through the
state. Forcing and instability head of the todayfront and upper
level dynamics are conducive to thunderstorm development during
the day and into the overnight hours. Some of this thunderstorm
activity could be severe with large hail and strong winds during
the later afternoon and evening hours. The positive tilt to the
upper level trough will keep the front progressive as it moves
through the state. As such, residence time of the severe
thunderstorm activity and heavy rain will be kept to minimum
keeping the flash flooding threat low. As the front passes, the
winds will pick up rapidly to advisory level generally along and
west of turnpike. These winds are expected to last into the early
morning hours. Skies will clear rapidly as the winds pick up as
high pressure builds into the region.

Sunday through Monday night, high pressure will dominate the
region and northerly flow. This will keep the temperatures below
normal for through Monday night with a chance for some light frost
over the parts Central Kansas Monday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Long range weather looks rather quiet through Friday. High
pressure will dominate the region for the most part and
temperatures will recover some to near or just above normal
levels. Precipitation chances look to remain low until next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Scattered elevated thunderstorms will persist into mid-afternoon
from south-central into northeast Kansas. Isolated small hail and
gusty winds could accompany these storms.

A strong cold front from southeast nebraska to northwest Kansas,
will surge rapidly southward across the remainder of Kansas late
this afternoon and evening. South-southwesterly winds of 15-20
knots with gusts of 25-30 knots, will shift to northwesterly
behind the front. Strong northwesterly gusts of 35-45 knots will
affect central/south-central Kansas this evening, before peak
gusts diminish overnight. A quasi-linear band of strong-severe
storms is expected to develop with the frontal surge very late
this afternoon/evening, across south-central/southeast Kansas.
Damaging winds will be the main threat, with a lesser chance of
large hail.

IFR/MVFR ceilings over northwest/north-central Kansas early this
afternoon, may try to filter southward into central Kansas through
early this evening behind the front, although ceiling heights are
expected to improve.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    82  47  64  41 /  50  60   0   0
Hutchinson      79  44  63  39 /  50  50   0   0
Newton          77  45  62  40 /  60  60   0   0
ElDorado        83  46  63  40 /  50  80   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   87  47  64  41 /  40  80   0   0
Russell         76  40  64  39 /  30  10   0   0
Great Bend      83  41  64  39 /  30  10   0   0
Salina          78  44  63  39 /  50  40   0   0
McPherson       79  44  62  39 /  50  50   0   0
Coffeyville     87  51  64  40 /  20  90  10   0
Chanute         86  49  62  40 /  30  90  10   0
Iola            86  49  62  40 /  30  80   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    86  51  63  39 /  20  90  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Sunday for
KSZ032-033-047>052-067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...JMC



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