Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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346
FXUS63 KICT 202015
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
315 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

This afternoon, large, but not overly strong, high pressure
continues to spread slowly E toward the Great Plains. The high,
centered along the SW SD/NW Nebraska border, is producing a
sufficiently tight Nly gradient to produce 10-20 mph winds across
KICT Country that are teaming with "cold air" Stratocu to limit
temperatures to the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Rest Of The Weekend:
There`ll be very nice weather as the afore-mentioned high pressure
dominates. As the high pushes E toward the MS Valley on Sun, Sly
winds will quickly return to the Wrn Plains to enable temperatures
to rebound into the mid 80s.

Mon-Tue Night:
A strengthening mid-upper deck shortwave, that`ll be situated over
British Columbia Sunday Night, will experience rapid cyclogenesis
as it moves SLOWLY E across the B.C./Alberta border Mon Afternoon.
This would induce a secondary mid-level shortwave to develop over
CO & NM which in turn would promote rapid sfc troffing across the
Wrn Plains. Gulf moisture would then quickly surge N (obviously) &
reach into KS Mon Eve. All would combine to produce the next round
of thunderstorms that should spread from TX & OK Mon Eve that is
still scheduled to arrive extreme SC/SE KS late Mon Night. Showers
& thunderstorms will streadily increase, especially across the Ern
half of KS, Tue & Tue Night as the by now developed sfc low moves
slowly E into Wrn KS in response to the occluding mid- upper
cyclone drifting E toward the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Wed-Thu:
With the overall pattern continuing to make slow ewd progress rainy
weather will presist both periods. The progged strength &
positioning of the mid-level shortwave would induce sufficient lift
to produce strong thunderstorms, especially Wed Night when the next
SE-moving cold front is scheduled to cross most of KICT Country. It
appears the cold front would make sufficient se progress to confine
any precipitation Thu Morning to SE KS as high pressure surges into
KS around midday. As such PoPs have been lowered across the board.
(In fact they`ve have been removed from Central KS altogether.)

Thu Night-Sat:
The biggest change was to remove all mentione of thunderstorms from
Thu Night as the ewd-moving high pressure dominates most of KS. The
next chance of thunderstorms should arrive Wrn & Central KS Fri
Afternoon as a broad mid-upper wave moves E across the Rockies. The
thunderstorms would spread E across all of KICT Country Fri Night &
Sat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Aviation concerns are expected to remain minimal through the next
24 hours.

Cold front that swept through the region last night currently
stretches from central IL down into central TX with much cooler
and drier air spilling-in from the north. This drier air will
result in VFR conditions area wide through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    56  83  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      55  84  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          55  83  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        54  82  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   56  84  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         53  85  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      53  85  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          54  83  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       54  83  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     55  84  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         54  83  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            54  82  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    54  83  59  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...RBL



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