Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 142037
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
237 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

THE VIGOROUS STORM OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES
TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY. A WELL
DEFINED DRY SLOT WILL BRING A MORE RAPID DEMISE TO THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS EVENING WHILE SOME WRAP-
AROUND PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KANSAS. ANY BRIEF TRANSITION
TO SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY
ACCUMULATION.

MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM SYSTEM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 40S MON-WED. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TUE-EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

MAINTAINED LOW POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT ALTHOUGH LARGE
PHASE/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES AND LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
LEAD TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MAINTAINED MIXED
PHASE PRECIPITATION AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LIFT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE MAINTAINING SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CEILINGS AND INCREASING SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES.

DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER THE OK PANHANDLE/SW KS WITH
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WING PRECIP NOW ENTERING
THE SW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD WITH POCKETS OF IFR ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. WOULD
EXPECT CEILINGS TO BOUNCE AROUND AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVE THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS HIGH
TONIGHT AS SOME DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST. SO WILL
NOT HIT AS HARD AS WE HAVE THE LAST FEW NIGHTS.

LAWSON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    41  46  28  43 /  50  20   0   0
HUTCHINSON      40  45  25  41 /  50  30   0   0
NEWTON          41  46  26  40 /  50  30   0   0
ELDORADO        41  46  28  41 /  60  20   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   41  47  29  43 /  40  10   0   0
RUSSELL         35  41  21  38 /  60  30   0   0
GREAT BEND      35  42  23  40 /  50  30   0   0
SALINA          40  44  25  40 /  80  30  10   0
MCPHERSON       41  44  25  40 /  60  30   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     46  51  31  44 / 100  20   0   0
CHANUTE         47  51  29  42 / 100  20  10   0
IOLA            48  51  29  41 / 100  20  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    46  51  30  43 / 100  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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