Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 261014
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
514 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

LARGE DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THIS
WEAK SYSTEM. TO THE NORTH OF THIS SYSTEM....AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS FOR TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS A LARGE SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO WRN US...WITH MOST OF THE
PLAINS SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIR
WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR FRI THROUGH SUN...AS
THIS RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN ACROSS NE KS OF SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER WRN MO...RETROGRADES
BACK TO THE N-NW.  THINK MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY...IF ANY CAN
DEVELOP...WILL STAY NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL STAY DRY AS A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER KEEPS ANY
CONVECTIVE CHANCES CAPPED OFF.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

MON-TUE: THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE WRN US LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES FOR MON. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
ROCKIES...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER WRN KS. SOME OF THIS HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE TO THE EAST ON MON
EVENING/NIGHT...WITH SOME OF THIS POSSIBLY PUSHING INTO CENTRAL KS
FOR MON NIGHT. NOT TOO SURE HOW FAR EAST THIS CONVECTION WILL MAKE
IT MON NIGHT..AS MOST OF THIS CONVECTION OUTRUNS THE INSTABILITY
AS IT MOVES EAST OF HIGHWAY 14.

THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR
TUE...WITH A DRYLINE EXPECTED TO SETUP ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS VIGOROUS SYSTEM WILL
LEAD TO MOST OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS STAYING A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH...BUT BULK SHEAR/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUGGESTS STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS FOR TUE EVENING...IF INSTABILITY INCREASES ENOUGH.  LATEST
GFS SUGGESTS THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORM CHANCE...OR EVEN A WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE CHANCE. SO WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...AND LOOK AT INSTABILITY FIELDS AS
TUE GETS CLOSER.

WED-THU: MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON WHAT HAPPENS TO THE
SHORTWAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH AND STALLS...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE ALASKAN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WILL DROP QUICKLY SE AND ROTATE
AROUND THE SRN NED OF THE NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE AND MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS FOR WED. THIS WILL PUSH A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
WED AND POSSIBLY INTO THU.

THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME CERTAINLY LOOKS MORE ACTIVE FOR THE FORECAST
AREA WITH CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER INCREASING INTO WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR
THE NEXT 24HRS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    84  60  83  62 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      84  60  83  61 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          83  59  82  60 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        83  59  83  60 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   83  60  84  61 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         84  60  83  61 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      84  59  83  61 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          84  60  83  61 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       83  60  83  61 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     83  59  83  59 /  10   0  10  10
CHANUTE         82  58  82  59 /  10   0  10  10
IOLA            82  58  82  58 /  10   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    83  59  83  59 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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