Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 211200
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
700 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Warm advection and moisture transport continues to increase for
areas just to the SW of the forecast area early this morning. Latest
IR satellite shows increasing low-mid clouds across South Central
KS. Latest high-res models suggest that this 850-700h warm advection
and mid level isentropic lift will increase enough for a chance of
some isolated to widely scattered showers/storms to develop across
South Central KS this morning, possibly just after sunrise. So will
keep some low pops in for this chance.  Coverage of the morning
storms, will be problematic when it comes to max temps today, but
prefer to go with warmer max temps today.

Expect lots of cloud cover today, but think convective chances will
stay well west of the area for the afternoon/evening hours, mainly
situated along the dryline expected to be located across wrn KS.

Plan on keeping some low pops in for areas west of I-135 for this
evening,  in case any convection in wrn KS can make it this far
east.

For the overnight hours, 850-7090h warm advection/moisture
transport will again increase across Central KS late tonight, with a
similar setup to early this morning, with another chance of elevated
showers/storms developing either late tonight or early Sun morning
for portions of Central KS.

sun-sun night: Could see some early morning elevated showers/storms
linger into the late morning hours on Sun, as good 850-700h warm
advection continues over the wrn half of the forecast area. Think
the bulk of this activity will be confined to Central KS as best 310-
315K isentropic lift will be in this area.

Warming trend will continue for Sun (and into the middle of the week
for that matter) as a warm elevated mixed layer continues to push
into the area. This capping inversion will keep a lid on convective
chances for Sunday afternoon even though a warm and unstable airmass
will be in place with GFS showing MLCAPE values of 2800-3200 J/KG.
Think the better chances for eroding the cap will be the west of the
forecast area over wrn KS, as convergence along the dry line
increases. Could see some of the strong/severe storms expected along
the dryline to propagate east into portions of Central KS by Sun eve.
Could also see a few severe storms race northeast out of wrn OK into
South Cen KS late Sun eve as well.

Focus for late Sun night will eventually shift west of Central KS as
models still show convection in NW KS along the dry line growing
upscale into an eastward propagating mesoscale convective complex
(MCS) late Sun night. Some model differences on where this MCS will
track, with some solutions keeping the moisture transport and the
MCS further to the north into NEB, or across nrn KS. Given models
showing low level jet/moisture transport veering NE into NE KS by
Mon morning, will go with a straight eastward progression with the
highest pops along the I-70 corridor, but will keep chance pops
further south given the diffluent flow and strong moisture
transport.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Rich gulf moisture will remain across most of the forecast
area for Mon-Tue.  This airmass will lead to noticeably more humid
conditions across the area for the beginning of the week as the dry
line across wrn KS inches east closer to the forecast area for both
Mon-Tue afternoon. The elevated mixed layer will again keep
convective chances capped off for most locations for most of the day
time hours until convergence again increases along the dry line for
the Mon/Tue afternoon/evening hours.  This very unstable airmass and
30-40kts of bulk shear suggests a threat of severe supercell
thunderstorms both days...with large hail/damaging winds the main
concern. GFS is showing parameters are increasing for a possible
tornado threat, both days, but directional shear, at this time,
suggests a very small threat, but certainly something to keep an eye
on. Stay tuned.

Wed-Thu: The unsettled weather pattern looks to continue for the
rest of the work week, with placement of the dryline/boundary
being problematic given convective influences. Medium range models
suggest that the ern half of KS will see the highest pops for this
time frame, but most locations will see storm chances, with the
rich gulf moisture remaining across the plains.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Both cigs & vsbys are requiring close attention early this mrng as
short-term solns have really been struggling. W/ weak E-SE lwr deck
flow coupling w/ a STRONG mid-upr ridge axis drifting E twd the Nrn
Plains all of Cntrl & SC KS were xpct`d to be IFR stratified by now
but the IFR Stratus conts to be shunted well to the SW & W from the
TX Panhandle to Wrn KS. IFR & ocnlly LIFR vsbys did materialize in
SE KS where it remains nearly calm. For now am keeping cigs in all
of Cntrl & SC KS no lwr than MVFR this mrng. In SE KS vsbys wl cont
to be greatest challenge w/ most areas in IFR range til ~15Z. Wdly
sct TSRA are still psbl for SC KS this mrng but lmt`d coverage
dictates "VCTS" assignment at KICT & KHUT. Xpct updates, spcly this
mrng.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    73  61  81  67 /  30  20  20  50
Hutchinson      71  61  81  66 /  30  20  20  50
Newton          71  59  80  66 /  30  10  20  50
ElDorado        72  59  79  67 /  30  10  20  50
Winfield-KWLD   74  61  80  68 /  30  10  20  40
Russell         70  62  81  62 /  20  20  20  60
Great Bend      70  62  80  64 /  20  20  20  50
Salina          71  61  81  66 /  30  20  20  60
McPherson       70  61  80  66 /  30  20  20  50
Coffeyville     74  59  81  67 /  20  10  10  30
Chanute         73  58  80  66 /  20  10  10  30
Iola            73  57  80  66 /  20  10  10  30
Parsons-KPPF    73  59  80  66 /  20  10  10  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...EPS



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