Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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190
FXUS63 KICT 192004
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
304 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Upper ridging continues to build over the central/southern Plains
with shortwave energy coming onshore over the Pacific NW.
Meanwhile, another shortwave trough is tracking over eastern
Quebec. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Great
Lakes region with weak lee troughing over eastern CO/western
Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Upper ridging will continue to strengthen over the
central/southern Plains through Thu with 850mb temps warming into
the 25-30C range. We should start to see numerous sites get into
the low 100s starting Wed and continuing through Fri. Will
maintain heat headlines through Fri but with dewpoints mixing out
a bit more each day, still feel confident that we are not looking
at 110 degree heat indices. In addition, gusty south and southwest
winds will also help provide some relief.

As mid level temps and associated capping continue to increase,
should see a decrease in MCS activity through Fri over the central
Plains, so confidence is high in keeping a dry forecast going.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Both ECMWF and GFS agree in tracking a shortwave across the
northern Rockies and into the northern Plains by Sat afternoon.
This should help break down the upper ridging over the southern
Rockies into the Plains. There is also some agreement in a front
trying to make its way down into northern/western KS by late Sat
afternoon. So will start to slowly bring storm chances back Sat
for parts of central KS and area wide by Sun. However, not
confident enough at this point to go with anything higher than a
slight chance due to lack of larger scale forcing. As far as temps
go, they look to moderate back closer to seasonal normals by Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

SSW winds will back later this afternoon becoming more SSE before
diminishing to around 12 kts tonight. Very similar conditions
anticipated on Wed with breezy SSW winds early becoming SSE later
in the day although speeds may increase slightly on Wed compared
to today. Some fair weather cu in the 8-9 kft range has developed
across south central KS and should diminish by early evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    76 100  76 102 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      75 100  76 103 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          75  99  76 101 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        75  97  76  99 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   76  98  76 100 /  10   0   0   0
Russell         74 102  75 104 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      74 101  75 104 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          76 101  77 103 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       75 100  76 103 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     75  96  75  98 /  10  10   0   0
Chanute         75  95  76  97 /  10  10   0   0
Iola            75  95  76  97 /  10  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    75  95  75  98 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ051-068-069-083-
092>096-098>100.

Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ033-
048-050-067-082-091.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ049-052-053-
070>072.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...MWM



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