Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 140917
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
317 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 316 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Strong south and southwest flow today will make for a very warm day
with temperatures well above normal for this time of year.  Some
areas of southerly and southeast Kansas will get a slow start as
early morning moisture transport has brought in some low level
clouds.  There will also be some patchy fog as well. The low clouds
and fog is expected to burn off by mid morning giving way to a nice
warm day.  Record highs will be difficult today as most highs are
high 70s and low 80s.

Thursday, the next cold front will be coming into the region. Nearly
all the models are showing a weak wave moving along the front as it
approaches the I-70 corridor.  This wave will not produce any
precipitation but it will stall the front in central Kansas for a
good portion of Thursday.  This set up makes Thursday`s forecast
very difficult as areas to the south in south central and southeast
Kansas continue to contend with brisk southwest and westerly down
slope winds which are expected to be gusty at times. Temperatures
across the state are likely to be wide ranging with near record
temperatures for southern Kansas possible.  Once the wave moves off
to the east, the strong and cold high pressure behind the front will
start to push south and into the region.  By mid to late evening the
cold front will be through the state and temperatures will take a
rapid tumble bring temperatures down below normal once again. Friday
temperatures look to remain below normal for the day.

Metzger

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Strong south and southwest flow today will make for a very warm day
with temperatures well above normal for this time of year.  Some
areas of southerly and southeast Kansas will get a slow start as
early morning moisture transport has brought in some low level
clouds.  There will also be some patchy fog as well. The low clouds
and fog is expected to burn off by mid morning giving way to a nice
warm day.  Record highs will be difficult today as most highs are
high 70s and low 80s.

Thursday, the next cold front will be coming into the region. Nearly
all the models are showing a weak wave moving along the front as it
approaches the I-70 corridor.  This wave will not produce any
precipitation but it will stall the front in central Kansas for a
good portion of Thursday.  This set up makes Thursday`s forecast
very difficult as areas to the south in south central and southeast
Kansas continue to contend with brisk southwest and westerly down
slope winds which are expected to be gusty at times. Temperatures
across the state are likely to be wide ranging with near record
temperatures for southern Kansas possible.  Once the wave moves off
to the east, the strong and cold high pressure behind the front will
start to push south and into the region.  By mid to late evening the
cold front will be through the state and temperatures will take a
rapid tumble bring temperatures down below normal once again. Friday
temperatures look to remain below normal for the day.

Metzger

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

A warm, moist southerly flow regime will lead to reduced flight
categories across much of south central and southeast KS tonight
into Wednesday morning with widespread low cigs although
confidence in more widespread low visibilities has diminished with
dense mid and high level clouds ahead of the the stratus lifting
north out of the Southern Plains region. IFR and LIFR are
expected to develop after 08-10Z and linger through 15-16Z before
improving for most locations. The exception will be far southeast
KS where low cigs may linger through the morning hours.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

There will be a number of windy days coming up which will bring a
number of very high grass land fire danger situations.  In the near
term, that will be today, Thursday and Friday.  This very high fire
danger is expected in south central and southeast Kansas.  Strong
winds will return for Sunday with another very high grass land fire
danger for the entire CWA and again on Monday but primarily for
southeast Kansas.  The wind is now the main driver of the category
due to the very dry conditions and current curing of the available
fuels.

Metzger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  50  74  26 /   0  10  10   0
Hutchinson      70  46  70  23 /   0  10  10   0
Newton          69  48  69  22 /   0  10  10  10
ElDorado        68  52  71  25 /   0  10  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   70  55  75  28 /   0  10  20  10
Russell         70  40  62  20 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend      72  43  66  20 /   0  10  10  10
Salina          67  43  64  22 /   0   0  10  10
McPherson       70  45  67  22 /   0   0  10  10
Coffeyville     66  56  76  32 /  10  10  20  20
Chanute         63  54  73  28 /  10  10  20  10
Iola            62  53  72  27 /  10  10  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    65  56  73  31 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...ELM



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