Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 242036
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
336 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO REMAIN FIRMLY PLANTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WHILE THE H7 THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. A CAPPING INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS MAY DRIFT EASTWARD IMPACTING
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD SAT MORNING BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
PROGGED TO REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN KS.

CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SAT AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KS BECOMING A FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
WILL RESIDE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL KS COUNTIES AND ALONG A WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO RESIDE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE HIGHWAY 36
CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. HEAT INDICES WILL RISE ABOVE 105
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS...POSSIBLY EXTENDING
WESTWARD NEAR THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED FOR ALL OF SE KS. THE NAM/GFS ARE BOTH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
MIXING...DRIVING AFTERNOON DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S. IN
ADDITION...CLOUDS AND LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KS
SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES TO TOP OUT AROUND 100 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SUN-MON...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUN-MON AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS PLANTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.
MAINTAINED LOW POPS ON SUN BUT THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES EARLY IN THE WEEK BRINGING DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR THE CENTURY
MARK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A VIGOROUS
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP BREAK
DOWN THE PERSISTENT RIDGE WHILE DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT WHILE TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
SOUTHWESTWARD TO FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY DURING THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD...WITH A LEE TROUGH
AXIS OVER WESTERN KANSAS. THESE 2 BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS PM INTO THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY. EXPECT THE BRUNT OF THIS CONVECTION TO REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF CENTRAL KS TAF SITES. THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS OR REMNANT CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE RSL AND
SLN TAF SITES SATURDAY MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TSRA
HITTING THOSE SITES IS TOO LOW THIS FAR OUT TO MENTION TSRA.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONT.

JMC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77 100  76  99 /  10  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      76  99  76  99 /  10  20  30  20
NEWTON          75  98  75  98 /  10  10  30  20
ELDORADO        78  98  76  97 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  99  75  99 /  10  10  20  10
RUSSELL         73  98  74 101 /  30  30  30  20
GREAT BEND      73  98  73 100 /  30  30  40  20
SALINA          77  98  76  99 /  20  30  30  30
MCPHERSON       75  98  75  99 /  10  20  40  20
COFFEYVILLE     76  99  76  98 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         76  97  76  97 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            77  97  76  97 /  10  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    76  99  76  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ033-
048>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ070>072-
091>096-098>100.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-047.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.