Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 210951
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
351 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. INITIALLY VISIBILITIES HAD FLUCTUATED GREATLY BUT SINCE
AROUND 1 AM 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN PREVALENT. OVER
THE REST OF KICT COUNTRY NW 5 TO 15 MPH WINDS HAVE BEEN ADVECTING
DRIER AIR INTO THE NEIGHBORHOOD WHILE UPSTAIRS EXTENSIVE MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS (MORE SPECIFICALLY ALTOSTRATUS) CONTINUES TO SPREAD DUE
EAST ACROSS KS AND OK. THE NW WINDS AND THE INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS HAVE ENABLED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE AREA TO
STABILIZE...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN CENTRAL KS TO THE MID
30S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

THIS MORNING:
THE IMMEDIATE FOCUS IS THE DURATION OF THE DENSE FOG ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST KS. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM.
WITH DRIER AIR MIGRATING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...COUPLED WITH
THE EXPANDING MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS...BELIEVE THE 9 AM EXPIRATION
WILL HOLD.

REMAINDER OF TODAY THRU FRIDAY:
FORECAST FROM THE PAST 3 DAYS IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AS OVERALL
PATTERN IS BEHAVING MUCH AS HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED. THE UPPER-DECK
TROF DIGGING OVER THE FAR DESERT SW IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN/SHARPEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES EAST FROM AZ LATE TONIGHT
WITH THE CREATURE REACHING TX EARLY FRI MORNING. SUCH A TRACK WILL
KEEP THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SNOW SNOW/RAIN MIXTURE SW OF OUR
NEIGHBORHOOD THRU LATE TONIGHT WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES
SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

THIS WEEKEND:
WITH THE DEEP UPPER TROF SURGING EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH A DEEP
AND VERY STRONG(!) NW FLOW REGIME QUICKLY RETURNS TO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THE VERY STRONG NW UPPER-DECK FLOW WILL SEND A SUBTLE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE SPRINTING SE FROM THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE CHARACTER REACHING THE UPPER AND MID-MS
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. WITH THE GREATEST INCREASING LIFT PROJECTED TO
OCCUR JUST NE-E OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IA
TO MO...THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR JUST
TO THE NE AND E OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AS SUCH THE SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM SOUTHEAST KS FOR SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL SURGE ACROSS KS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOWER-DECK FLOW WOULD
POSSESS A SUFFICIENT NW COMPONENT TO KEEP MAXES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY-TUESDAY:
AS THE EVER DEEPENING MID-UPPER TROF SURGES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST...A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
SLOWLY E OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT TO FORCE THE VERY STRONG
NW FLOW REGIME SLOWLY E OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUE. SUBTLE
LOWER-DECK TROFFING WOULD DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS SUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL RESULT AS THE
LOWER-DECK FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE W TO SET UP EXCELLENT DOWNSLOPE.
HAVE RAISED MAXES A FEW DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MID-UPPER 50S LIKELY FOR ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA.  EXPECT A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NW
OVERNIGHT.  WILL SEE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WED.

THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME SE
KS...WHERE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO PATCHY DENSE FOG NEAR
THE KCNU TAF SITE.  SO WILL DROP VSBYS TO MVFR WITH SOME AREAS OF
IFR AND LIFR VSBYS BETWEEN 08-11Z.  WILL ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS
CHANCE.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  27  44  27 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      46  26  43  25 /  10   0  10   0
NEWTON          46  27  43  26 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        48  28  43  26 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  29  45  26 /  10  10  10   0
RUSSELL         45  21  41  24 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      44  24  41  23 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          46  23  41  24 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       46  26  42  25 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     50  29  44  26 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         48  28  43  25 /   0   0  10   0
IOLA            47  27  41  25 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    50  29  44  25 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ095-096-
099-100.

&&

$$



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