Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 171138
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
638 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

TROUGH NEAR GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MERGE WITH TROUGH OVER THE EAST
COAST TODAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST AS A RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

MILDLY COOLER AIR ADVECTED INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM YESTERDAY WILL KEEP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CENTRAL
KANSAS COULD FLIRT WITH POTENTIAL PATCHY FROST...HOWEVER THE
POSSIBILITIES LOOK TO STAY IN EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  CURRENT
THOUGHT REMAINS THAT TEMPS WILL BE JUST ABOVE ANY POTENTIAL FOR SUCH
DEVELOPMENT. THIS COOLER AIR WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS WELL WITH
EVEN LOWER TEMPS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL GET
ITS MAIN PUSH FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE
SLOWLY EXITING TROUGH WHICH WILL BE ANOTHER LIKELY DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE GIVEN LACKING MOISTURE AND SUBSTANTIAL FORCING MECHANISMS.
THUS THE SILENT POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. OVERALL
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND SHOULD MAKE IT A GREAT ONE FOR THOSE WHO
HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR THOSE FALL PROJECTS IN THE YARD TO WORK
ON.

VP

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A RIDGE WILL FOLLOW AND DOMINATE FOR THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK TO KEEP THE TREND OF TEMPS RANGING IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S. ON TUESDAY...THE NEXT TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE
ITS WAY ONSHORE AND SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD. WHILE THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK WILL BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SAME TUNE OF PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES AND MINIMAL WINDS...FURTHER DIMINISHING AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH THIS NEXT WAVE STAYING MAINLY TO THE NORTH OR WEST
COULD MEAN ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LOOK TO BE IN WESTERN KANSAS
GIVEN THE FLOW PATTERN AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE BEING PULLED IN FROM
THE GULF IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK FOR THAT AREA. THE MODELS ARE
MESSY WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST WITH
DISCREPANCIES MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DISCERN WHAT IS THE ANTICIPATED
TRACK. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE MODELS WILL MAKE A CHANGE ONE WAY OR
ANOTHER...BUT ONE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHERE THE PATH WILL
LEAD.

VP

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NIL THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD AND LIKELY BEYOND.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER IMPULSE DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS ALLOWED A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IS NOW SITUATED DOWN
NEAR THE RED RIVER. CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND LIKELY BEYOND.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  44  65  47 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      69  42  63  46 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          69  42  63  45 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        69  43  64  45 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  46  66  47 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         68  41  63  47 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      68  42  64  47 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          68  41  62  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       69  42  62  46 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     71  45  64  45 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  43  63  44 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            69  43  62  43 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    70  44  64  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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