Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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282
FXUS63 KICT 140747
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
247 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The challenge for the first period will again be the timing of
the frontal passage creating a tricky temperature and
precipitation forecast for today and overnight tonight. Water
Vapor imagery again shows the Gulf of Mexico closed off but a
decent moisture train from the New Mexico and far west Texas. This
will be the primary source of moisture for the region and will
allow the a much better moisture transport set up for the region
than yesterday. The frontal system that moved into the region
yesterday has retreated to the north and west. This front will get
a push as an upper level trough comes into phase with the surface
front. This set up will allow the front to progress through the
state. Forcing and instability head of the todayfront and upper
level dynamics are conducive to thunderstorm development during
the day and into the overnight hours. Some of this thunderstorm
activity could be severe with large hail and strong winds during
the later afternoon and evening hours. The positive tilt to the
upper level trough will keep the front progressive as it moves
through the state. As such, residence time of the severe
thunderstorm activity and heavy rain will be kept to minimum
keeping the flash flooding threat low. As the front passes, the
winds will pick up rapidly to advisory level generally along and
west of turnpike. These winds are expected to last into the early
morning hours. Skies will clear rapidly as the winds pick up as
high pressure builds into the region.

Sunday through Monday night, high pressure will dominate the
region and northerly flow. This will keep the temperatures below
normal for through Monday night with a chance for some light frost
over the parts Central Kansas Monday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Long range weather looks rather quiet through Friday. High
pressure will dominate the region for the most part and
temperatures will recover some to near or just above normal
levels. Precipitation chances look to remain low until next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1108 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Light north-northeasterly winds are expected behind a stalled
front tonight, with light southerly winds in southeast Kansas at
CNU. Scattered, elevated thunderstorms should develop in the early
hours of Saturday morning across south-central and northeast
portions of Kansas. This convection is most likely to impact KHUT,
KICT, and KSLN, with a lesser chance at the other airports. The
front is forecast to lift slowly northward to central Kansas
Saturday morning, but may be delayed somewhat by elevated
convection tonight, depending on the extent of convection
coverage. LIFR is expected for KRSL and KGBD around 10Z Saturday
morning, with areas of patchy fog possible. Showers and
thunderstorms could impact airports Saturday afternoon and
evening, especially at KICT, KHUT, and KSLN. Wind gusts in excess
of 25kt are expected at area airports, with strongest gusts of
near 40kt near KRSL and KGBD around 22Z Saturday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    81  47  63  41 /  70  70   0   0
Hutchinson      77  44  62  39 /  70  50   0   0
Newton          79  44  61  40 /  70  70   0   0
ElDorado        83  46  62  40 /  70  80   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   87  47  63  40 /  60  90  10   0
Russell         68  40  63  39 /  50  20   0   0
Great Bend      73  41  62  39 /  50  20   0   0
Salina          75  44  62  39 /  70  30   0   0
McPherson       77  44  61  39 /  70  40   0   0
Coffeyville     89  51  63  40 /  30  90  20   0
Chanute         88  49  62  39 /  50  90  10   0
Iola            88  49  62  39 /  50  90  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    89  51  63  39 /  40  90  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...TAV



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