Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 190432
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1132 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

TONIGHT-WED: A CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WILL LEAD TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. SO EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 40S IN CENTRAL KS.

WILL START TO SEE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE
HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE...AS AN
INITIAL IMPULSE IN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO PUSH
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS MAY LEAD TO SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
OVER WRN KS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUE MORNING AS UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS.

STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON HOW QUICKLY THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE INTO WRN KS ON TUE MORNING...WITH
INITIAL SATURATION FOR AREAS WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SO WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135
FOR TUE INTO TUE AFTERNOON AS THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR SRN CA
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO MOISTURE TRANSPORT REALLY INCREASING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUE EVENING/NIGHT...AS THE MAIN
850-700H BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS NORTH AND IS LOCATED SOMEWHERE
ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN KS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE SHOWERS
BECOMING QUITE NUMEROUS FOR TUE NIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK CREATES NICE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. NOT ALOT OF
INSTABILITY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MUCAPE
VALUES ONLY AROUND 250 J/KG....BUT BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 50-55
KTS. SO MAINLY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER. BUT THE COMBINATION
OF DIFFLUENCE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PRECIP WATER VALUES OF
100-110 PERCENT OF NORMAL MAY LEAD TO VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS
AREAS ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE WEEKEND RAINS. SO HAVE DECIDED TO
GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF SRN KS FOR TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED...WITH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES FAIRLY LOW. WHILE
THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IS NOT EXCESSIVE...THIS MAY RESULT IN
RENEWED RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH LOWLAND FLOODING POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE SATURATED GROUNDS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WHEN IT COMES TO
THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SHOWERS STILL ONGOING FOR THE MORNING
HOURS ON WED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ERN HALF OF KS. SO WILL KEEP
POPS FAIRLY HIGH FOR WED AS WELL. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING..WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING UNTIL WED EVENING.

THU: EXPECT TO SEE A RESPITE FROM THE PRECIP ON THU...AS WEAK
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE SW FLOW REMAINS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

ONLY A EXPECTING A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN...AS THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. GONNA HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FRI AFTERNOON AND SAT...AS INSTABILITY AND A HUMID AIRMASS WILL
COME BACK ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES INCREASING. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A PRETTY
DECENT COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORM
CHANCES TO INCREASE FOR FRI EVENING AND SAT.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...QUIET VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY MIDDAY. THEREAFTER...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SHOULD ALLOW LOW VFR
TO HIGH MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000-4000 FT AGL TO SPREAD/DEVELOP NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS
OF RAIN APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST...LIKELY
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE FORECAST FROM WEST-EAST OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...INCREASING SOME TUESDAY MORNING AND BECOMING
MORE EASTERLY.

ADK

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

SATURATED GROUNDS AND FAIRLY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES HAVE
LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN ADDITIONAL THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN
INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SWOLLEN RIVERS
RISING ONCE AGAIN TO NEAR FLOOD LEVELS. FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS MAY ALSO OCCUR ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  65  53  63 /   0  20  90  40
HUTCHINSON      49  63  49  61 /   0  30  90  30
NEWTON          48  63  50  58 /   0  20  90  40
ELDORADO        49  66  52  61 /   0  10  90  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   52  68  55  65 /   0  20  90  50
RUSSELL         46  57  45  57 /  10  70  90  20
GREAT BEND      47  58  46  58 /  10  70  90  20
SALINA          47  61  48  58 /   0  20  90  40
MCPHERSON       48  62  48  59 /   0  20  90  40
COFFEYVILLE     52  72  57  67 /   0  10  90  60
CHANUTE         50  69  54  63 /   0   0  90  60
IOLA            49  68  53  62 /   0   0  90  60
PARSONS-KPPF    51  71  56  66 /   0   0  90  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ051>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$


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