Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 220423
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1123 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

The main forecast focus is on temperatures and heat indices into
this weekend.

A strong upper high center over the south-central CONUS will
continue to bake the region with above normal heat into this
weekend, while subtropical moisture circulates around the periphery
of the high. A strong shortwave trough along the Pacific Northwest
Coast this afternoon, is progged to lift east-northeastward across
the Northern Plains Saturday into Sunday, flattening the upper ridge
some. This trough may allow a weak front to sink southward into
Kansas late Saturday night into Sunday, where it could stall out or
perhaps be reinforced some by thunderstorm outflow effects.
Persistent lee troughing and a strong low-level thermal ridge axis
will keep 850 temperatures anomalously warm at least Friday and
Saturday, and possibly into Sunday as well (particularly in south-
central/southeast Kansas). Highs of 98 to 106 are expected Friday
and Saturday, with mid-upper 90s on Sunday. Confidence in heat
indices above 105 degrees is high on Friday and only somewhat
lesser on Saturday, depending on further drying of the ground and
how much dewpoints can mix out. Consensus with adjacent forecast
offices to the west/south was to hold off on extending heat
headlines into Saturday for now, although it may be necessary with
later shifts.

Modest chances for thunderstorms will affect the northwestern part
of Kansas tonight and again Friday night...near the edge of the
monsoonal moisture plume where weak vort lobes are embedded. Storm
chances may increase late in the weekend in our forecast area if the
front can make it this far south.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

The medium range models are tending to show the upper ridge
retrograding to over the Great Basin by Wednesday/Thursday, allowing
more of a west-northwesterly flow aloft pattern over the Central
Plains. A frontal boundary may linger across the Kansas vicinity at
least early in the period. A high precipitable water environment
will exist near and north of this front which may serve as a focus
for thunderstorms Monday-Tuesday. Even if the front washes out by
midweek, developing northwest flow aloft would allow the possibility
of nocturnal storm complexes moving east-southeastward off of the
High Plains. Expecting seasonably warm temperatures during this
period (Highs low-mid 90s), with occasional storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Aviation concerns still expected to remain minimal through the
next 24 hours.

Upper ridging remains in control of the southern Plains with some
of the mid/upper moisture from the southwest monsoonal flow
spilling into the high Plains. While there is still an outside
chance at a rouge storm tonight over central KS, confidence is not
very high at all. So will continue with a VFR TAF for the next 24
hours. Just like the last few days, gusty sw winds will commence
by early afternoon and die off just after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    79 103  77 104 /  10  10  10  10
Hutchinson      77 105  77 104 /  10  10  10  10
Newton          78 102  77 103 /  10  10  10  10
ElDorado        77 101  77 102 /  10  10  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   77 102  77 102 /   0  10   0  10
Russell         75 105  77 104 /  20  20  20  10
Great Bend      76 105  77 104 /  20  20  20  10
Salina          79 106  79 105 /  10  10  10  10
McPherson       77 105  77 104 /  10  10  10  10
Coffeyville     76  99  76  99 /   0  10   0   0
Chanute         76  99  76  98 /   0  10   0  10
Iola            76  98  76  97 /   0  10   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    76  99  76  98 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ033-048>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ032-047.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...RBL



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