Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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399
FXUS63 KICT 221815
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
115 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Modest elevated moisture transport may still support isolated
convection early this morning along/north of I-70, though better
chances will remain north of the area. Otherwise, the unseasonably
warm southerly flow will continue over the area with highs topping
90F again in many locales. Russell may challenge its record of 93F
set just last year. Friday looks to be quite breezy as well as
unseasonably warm with plenty of sunshine. The main focus will be
with increasing precip chances Friday night through Saturday night
in advance of the developing western CONUS longwave upper
trof/closed low. Forcing for ascent and low level moisture
transport will increase late Friday night through Saturday with
scattered convection expected to develop and spread northeast
across the area. The more numerous to widespread convection is
still anticipated Saturday evening through Saturday night with a
risk for heavy rainfall.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Spread in the medium range models tend to lower confidence a bit
through early next week. The GFS continues to show a deeper upper
trof axis extending across the Plains from the main vortex over
the Upper Midwest, whereas the ECMWF shows more stream separation
placing Kansas in a bridged/weaker shear axis between its solution
of a closed/cutoff low over the far southwest CONUS and the
northern stream trof over the Upper Midwest. That said, there is
general consensus and higher confidence on much cooler over the
area with decreasing precip chances, though timing on its demise
is still a bit uncertain.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period.
Gusty winds this afternoon should diminish near sunset and increase
again tomorrow. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    91  67  90  71 /   0   0   0  20
Hutchinson      92  67  91  69 /  10   0   0  20
Newton          90  66  89  70 /  10   0   0  20
ElDorado        90  66  89  70 /   0   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   91  68  90  72 /   0   0   0  10
Russell         92  67  91  68 /  10  10   0  40
Great Bend      93  66  92  67 /  10   0   0  40
Salina          93  68  92  70 /  10   0   0  20
McPherson       92  67  91  69 /  10   0   0  20
Coffeyville     91  65  91  69 /   0   0   0  10
Chanute         89  64  89  69 /  10   0   0  10
Iola            88  64  88  68 /  10   0   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    90  64  90  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...PJH



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