Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 232325
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
625 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

LINGERING MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN CONCERT WITH SUBTLE
RIPPLES MOVING OVER THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTED IN
LINGERING HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
THINKING THESE CHANCES WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS TUESDAY NIGHT-
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALONG A SLOWLY EASTWARD ADVANCING 800-600MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER...ECMWF AND NAM ARE NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH
WITH THIS FEATURE...SO LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THE CONTINUING
INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
MONDAY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL IN THE 80S. HOWEVER...UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW WARMING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

GFS...ECMWF AND GEM ALL PROGRESS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND APPROACHING THE KANSAS REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MID-
LATE WEEK...BREAKING DOWN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER RIDGE SOME.
CONSEQUENTLY...THINKING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...MODEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY COULD
FAVOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON MON AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KCNU. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  82  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      55  83  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          55  82  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        55  81  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  82  59  86 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         53  86  60  89 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      53  85  60  89 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          54  84  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       55  83  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     55  82  56  85 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         53  81  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            53  81  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    54  81  55  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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