Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 110821
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
321 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Mesoscale convective system (MCS) over south central KS and north
central OK continues to make steady E-SE progress into southern KS
and nrn OK. Expect to see this E-SE progression continue for most of
the morning hours. Current flood watch goes till 12z and this timing
looks just about right, as most of the heavier storms will be south
of the area after sunrise. Will trim a few counties off the northern
edge, as the showers stay south of Reno and Sedgwick Co`s.

As the morning progresses think most of the area will see lots of
debris clouds and diminishing shower, with lots of remnant low level
moisture around for another muggy afternoon. As the afternoon hours
progress, remnant low level moisture will lead to an unstable
airmass over as least southeast Kansas and possibly areas along the
Kansas/Oklahoma border.  Not sure how much recovery will occur over
south central KS, but think SE KS in a weakly capped environment
will see a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms late this
afternoon. Think portions of SW KS will recover enough for afternoon
storm chances as well.

Progressive zonal flow will lead to another impulse in the southern
Rockies racing east into SW KS this evening.  Low level jet
increasing ahead of this system will lead to showers and
thunderstorms increasing for areas across SW KS late this evening
and overnight. Latest models seem to suggest the best Fn-convergence
and moisture transport will stay just to the SW of the forecast area
through Sat morning.  So will not issue another flash flood watch
for south central KS. Could still see some scattered showers for
areas west of the I-135 late tonight, so will keep some chance pops
over south central KS.

Models suggest that the impulse over SW KS late tonight will make
its way across srn KS on Sat, which will lead a continued chances of
showers and thunderstorms across srn KS as low level moisture will
lead to a weakly capped environment.

Lots of cloud cover and chances of showers and thunderstorms will
lead to the below normal temperatures continuing for most of the
weekend.  Even with the below normal temperatures, expect to see the
muggy conditions to continue given the high surface dewpoints.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Progressive zonal flow pattern looks to remain unsettled through the
end of the weekend into the beginning of next week. This will lead
to low level moisture remaining across the area as the next impulse
in the westerly flow makes its way across the area late Sun night or
early Mon. Even with the storm chances continuing for the beginning
of the week, expect to see a warming trend toward the middle of the
work week which may push afternoon highs back closer to seasonal
normals.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Ongoing convection over southeast Kansas will continue, therefore
have a long duration VCTS for KCNU. The reason for that is
instability and low level moisture transport will support
convection over southeast Kansas for the next several hours.

Moreover, the complex of storms over the western part of the state
will head east and move into the region overnight. The northern
extent of the storms will probably remain south of Highway 50.

Given the cirrus shield from the MCS, fog unlikely so removed from
TAFs. The complex of storms will exit the state around Noon
Friday. The next chance of storms will be very late Friday night.

Outside of storms, some MVFR CIGS around but they are short
lived. Therefore, carried SCT025 rather than broken.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    82  67  80  68 /  40  20  30  30
Hutchinson      83  65  79  66 /  10  20  30  30
Newton          83  64  78  65 /  10  20  30  30
ElDorado        82  64  79  65 /  50  20  30  30
Winfield-KWLD   83  67  80  67 /  30  20  40  50
Russell         82  64  81  64 /  20  30  30  40
Great Bend      83  65  80  65 /  10  30  40  40
Salina          84  65  82  65 /  10  20  30  40
McPherson       83  64  80  65 /  10  20  30  30
Coffeyville     84  66  82  68 /  70  20  30  50
Chanute         83  65  81  67 /  40  10  20  30
Iola            83  64  81  66 /  30  10  20  20
Parsons-KPPF    83  66  82  68 /  70  20  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ082-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...KRC



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