Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 230920
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
320 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

SNOW CURRENTLY FALLING ACROSS NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SPREAD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING
FROM A TRACE TO A LITTLE MORE THAN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY
CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH A RAIN SNOW MIXTURE EXPECTED FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THEN TRANSITIONING TO
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS. WE COULD SEE SOME
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE LOW CENTER WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO ON
THURSDAY AND TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONSIDERABLY OVER
KANSAS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE SOUTH WINDS TO
INCREASE AND COULD REACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. IN ADDITION...THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL USHER WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS ON FRIDAY WITH AN
EVEN MORE ROBUST SHOT OF COLDER AIR POSSIBLY ARRIVING EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL AFFECT
DAYTIME HIGHS QUITE A BIT. YESTERDAY`S GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS SHOWED
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM REMAINING WELL
SOUTH OF KANSAS...HOWEVER THAT IS NOT THE CASE 24HRS LATER AS
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS IS PRESENT. THE GFS
MODEL KEEPS THE PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH AND DRY FOR KANSAS WHILE
ECMWF MODEL HAS SYSTEM SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH POSSIBLE PRECIP
AFFECTING SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE LATEST TRENDS OF THE GFS MODEL SEEM
TO BE LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION...AND SINCE THIS IS THE
FIRST MODEL RUN SHOWING A CHANGE WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
AND MONITOR FUTURE RUNS BEFORE INSERTING PRECIP WITH THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO ALASKA FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN USUALLY RESULTS IN A LARGE CHUNK OF ARCTIC
AIR BEING DISLODGED AND FORCED SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS REMAIN INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW POTENTIAL
ON TUE.

LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY OVER NEBRASKA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE. AT THIS TIME FEEL THAT MVFR CIGS WILL
BE OVER CENTRAL KS BY LATE TUE MORNING WITH A GOOD BET OF IFR CIGS
AT KRSL AND KSLN BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME LIGHT SNOW AND
RAIN WILL ALSO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...FIRST
AFFECTING CENTRAL KS AROUND 21Z AND KICT AROUND 00Z. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING HEAVY SNOW WITH JUST SOME 4-5SM AT KRSL AND KSLN. NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH GUSTS IN THE 35 TO
40 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS WEST OF I-135.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    41  28  39  27 /  30  30  10   0
HUTCHINSON      38  27  39  25 /  70  30   0   0
NEWTON          39  28  38  26 /  40  30  10   0
ELDORADO        41  29  38  27 /  30  30  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   43  29  40  27 /  20  30  10   0
RUSSELL         34  24  40  24 /  80  30   0   0
GREAT BEND      35  25  40  25 /  80  30   0   0
SALINA          37  26  38  25 /  80  30   0   0
MCPHERSON       38  27  38  25 /  70  30   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     45  31  40  28 /  10  30  20   0
CHANUTE         43  30  39  28 /  10  30  20   0
IOLA            42  30  39  28 /  10  30  20   0
PARSONS-KPPF    44  30  39  28 /  10  30  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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