Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 010816
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
316 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WITH A BROAD
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...OVER THE PLAINS NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME WEAK ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER
IA/NORTHERN MO. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WAS A TROUGH MORE EVIDENT A
FEW HOURS AGO THROUGH EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...BUT THIS
FEATURE HAS STARTED TO WASH OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER NORTHERN MO WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT WAS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND WILL BE OVER CENTRAL KS
THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FEATURE
IS LOW SO FOR NOW WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT. WE LOOK TO
REMAIN IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK IMPULSE WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND ACROSS FAR EASTERN KS ON SAT. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE THINKING THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL STAY JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NOT AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME VERY SMALL
POPS ARE EVENTUALLY INSERTED INTO THE FORECAST.

TEMPS FOR THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED. HIGHS EACH
DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER CENTRAL KS...WHICH IS
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE PERIODS WILL BE FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO TRACK OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
MID WEEK WHICH WILL GET US OUT OF NORTHWEST FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE
ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH LEADS TO HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE WED-THU TIME FRAME. CONSIDERING THE GFS HAS
BEEN BETTER HANDLING SHORTWAVE STRENGTH THIS SUMMER...NOT READY TO
DISCOUNT IT YET. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND TO START THE
WORK WEEK WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL BY TUE...BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE WE ARE IN FOR AN EXTREME WARM-UP NEXT WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR PRIMARILY
CNU...WHERE VSBYS COULD GO IFR OR LOWER...DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...DIURNAL COOLING AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS. COULD
SEE PATCHY MVFR-IFR VSBYS AS FAR NORTHWEST AS ICT-HUT...ALTHOUGH
LOWER MOISTURE VALUES...BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
POTENTIAL FOR SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY HAMPER THESE LOWER VSBYS
FROM FORMING. FURTHERMORE...A WEAK WIND SHIFT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST IN CONCERT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAY PROMOTE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE
VICINITY OF ICT-SLN-HUT. PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT THIS TIME...SO
DID NOT MENTION IN 06Z ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  65  87  66 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      89  62  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          88  64  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        87  65  86  64 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  66  88  65 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         89  61  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      89  61  88  64 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          90  63  89  66 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       89  63  87  65 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  64  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         86  64  86  63 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            86  64  85  63 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    86  64  86  64 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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