Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 220435
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1135 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Late this afternoon-this evening: A warm and breezy airmass will
continue to lead to low level moisture remaining high over wrn Ks
into north Central Ks this afternoon. Seeing a slightly warmer
elevated mixed layer this afternoon which will lead to convection
shifting a little further west-northwest into western and north
central KS. Could see a similar setup early this evening with severe
convection once again developing to the N-NW of the forecast area,
and a storm or two eventually propagating south-southeast into
central KS for the evening hours through the late evening hours,
before diminishing late this evening. Bulk shear is a little less
than yesterday with instability similar to yesterday around 4000-
4500 j/kg.  this will to a few strong to severe storms with quarter
size hail and damaging wind gusts to 70 mph the main impacts.

Thu-Thu night: Low level moisture and an unstable airmass will again
be located across northern KS on Thu.  But the setup for Thu
afternoon/evening looks a little different as a mid level shortwave
will help push a cold front south into central KS for Thu afternoon.
Increased convergence and mid level lift is expected to lead to a
more widespread shower/thunderstorm chance for Thu afternoon-Thu
night, as the front makes steady progress south across central KS
into south central KS. Could see a little more widespread
strong/severe weather chance for Thu evening, as the GFS shows
higher bulk shear values of 40-50 kts and Mlcape values of 1500-2000
j/kg.

Will also have to keep an eye on remnant moisture from TS Cindy
lifting north, possibly into SE KS for Thu afternoon. Increased
moisture and instability may lead to a few diurnally driven showers
or storms. Will leave pops out for now, but could see them added
later.

Could see some the showers and thunderstorms linger well into Fri
morning, as the front pushes into central and south central KS.

Fri-Fri night:  A little more uncertainty on how Fri will play out,
as timing of the front moving across the region differs between the
GFS and ECMWF.  ECMWF has coming in a little faster, now more
similar to the GFS. Both models suggest post frontal showers will
linger across most of srn KS for a good portion of the day. Canadian
high pressure will begin to build into the plains, as the front
pushes south, so expect a cloudy cool day for Fri.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Cooler drier air looks to push into the area for the weekend,
with the cold front pushing well south of the area. If the ECMWF
plays out, the cold front may push all the way into the Gulf coast
states. Canadian high pressure looks to build into the plains,
with cooler and drier air pushing south across the forecast area.
This may lead to min temps dropping into the middle 50s with max
temps on Sun in the middle 70s. Some uncertainty on how Sat and
Sun will play out, as the both the GFS and ECMWF both suggest some
mid level moisture will try to sneak back into wrn KS, which may
lead to a chance for off-and-on morning showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms. Consensus pops seem a little overdone, as mid level
moisture return may not be as fast as the models suggest.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Medium range models build the summer heat
and breezy south winds back across the area for the middle of the
next week.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Aviation concern will be storm chances tonight and again Thu
evening.

The storms that developed out over western KS quickly died off as
they track southeast, out of the better instability. In addition,
capping also quickly increased after dark. An additional cluster
of storms developed over south central Nebraska and have tracked
slowly south into north central KS. The short term models that are
picking up on these storms dissipate them after 06z as they also
track out of the better instability.

Strong cold front is expected to track across the central Plains
tonight and make it into north central KS by early Thu evening.
This front should pass through KRSL-KGBD between 00z and 03z Fri.
A few storms will be possible along the front, but capping should
limit it to just a few storms. So will run with VCTS at KRSL-KGBD
after 01z Fri.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    69  92  69  85 /  10   0  20  30
Hutchinson      70  94  67  84 /  10   0  30  20
Newton          69  91  67  83 /  10   0  20  20
ElDorado        67  89  68  83 /  10   0  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   68  91  70  85 /   0   0  10  30
Russell         70  98  64  83 /  20  10  40  20
Great Bend      70  96  65  83 /  10   0  40  30
Salina          71  97  67  84 /  20   0  40  20
McPherson       70  95  66  84 /  10   0  30  20
Coffeyville     67  89  70  85 /   0   0  10  30
Chanute         67  89  69  84 /   0   0  20  20
Iola            67  89  68  84 /  10   0  20  20
Parsons-KPPF    67  89  70  85 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...RBL



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