Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 111154
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
554 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 313 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

Relatively low impact weather expected for at least the next 7-10
days across the region, with near to above normal temperatures
prevailing.

Widespread drizzle is expected to impact the region today and
tonight, as approaching shortwave energy induces modest to strong
low-level isentropic ascent and moisture transport. Drizzle this
morning into the afternoon will be most widespread generally
along/west of the KS Turnpike corridor, with the drizzle
eventually shifting east and becoming most widespread across
southeast Kansas tonight. Despite its widespread nature, total
drizzle amounts will remain light, generally less than five
hundredths of an inch. Thankfully, temperatures will remain well
above freezing so no icing is expected. All light precipitation
will exit far southeast Kansas after midnight.

Another round of light rain and/or drizzle is possible late
Monday through Tuesday, as deep low-level warm/moist advection
commences in response to shortwave energy approaching across the
Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Once again, light
precipitation amounts are expected, and temperatures will remain
well above freezing. Could see a handful of showers/thunderstorms
Tuesday night across eastern Kansas, as another cool front slices
across the state, but limited instability and weak upper forcing
should prevent severe weather.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 313 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

Despite some differences, operational models and associated
ensembles support another storm system and associated cool front
progressing across the region sometime Thursday-Friday. At this
point consensus suggests greatest precipitation chances will be
north of the region in vicinity of best forcing, although light
precipitation amounts are possible further south across KS. Model
consensus supports dry and relatively mild weather next weekend,
with upper ridging building in from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 544 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

Aviation concerns will be low ceilings along with reduced
visibilities associated with drizzle and fog.

Low level moisture is expected to continue lifting north into the
area today. So far IFR/LIFR ceilings have been in place over
western KS and are slowly making their way east with KRSl
currently at these lower levels. KICT and KSLN are expected to
see IFR cigs around 18z. Will also likely see some drizzle and fog
as ceilings lower with 1-2sm not out of the question, especially
for areas west of I-135. A cold front is still expected to move
into the area later today into the evening hours. This will flip
winds around to the north but is not expected to get rid of the
lower ceilings right away.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    53  44  55  37 /  60  50   0   0
Hutchinson      53  42  53  35 /  60  40   0   0
Newton          51  43  53  35 /  60  60   0   0
ElDorado        51  43  55  36 /  60  60   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   54  45  57  38 /  40  50   0   0
Russell         53  39  51  34 /  60  10   0   0
Great Bend      55  40  51  34 /  60  10   0   0
Salina          52  40  53  35 /  60  50   0   0
McPherson       52  41  53  34 /  60  50   0   0
Coffeyville     53  47  58  37 /  20  50   0   0
Chanute         51  45  55  35 /  40  50   0   0
Iola            50  44  54  35 /  40  50   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    52  45  57  36 /  30  50   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...RBL



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