Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 171754
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1254 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

VERY LIGHT WINDS...LOWERING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS AM...OVER EAST-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KS.

AN UPPER LOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AS IT MOVES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY
INTO TUESDAY. SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS
PM/EVE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AXIS FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO FAR
NORTHWEST KANSAS AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY FORWARD PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...INTO AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE BRUNT
OF THIS CONVECTION MAY BE JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OUR
AREA...HOWEVER...SOME OF IT MAY AFFECT CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANY STORMS REACHING CENTRAL KS THIS
EVENING COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD...A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KS MONDAY STALLING NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY
INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE MON PM/EVE...WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE AND STRONG HEATING/INSTABILITY. SOME INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND SOUTHWARD SPREAD IS POSSIBLE MON
NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A 60 KNOT UPPER JET STREAK NOSING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST...WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.
THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL.

ON TUESDAY...THE LOW-LEVEL FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT SLIGHTLY
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY.
THIS MAY SHIFT THE BETTER STORM POTENTIAL JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT TODAY MAY
SHAVE A COUPLE DEGREES OFF OF YESTERDAY`S HIGHS. 1000-850 PARTIAL
THICKNESSES INCREASE MONDAY-TUESDAY. AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT HAVE GOOD POTENTIAL TO REACH THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY WHERE THERE IS MORE OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW INDICATED.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE TREND OF UPPER TROUGHING
SETTLING INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS...WITH UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE MID-LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BETTER STORM CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH RAIN PROSPECTS SLIM AT BEST IN OUR
AREA. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...MAKING
FOR A VERY WARM TO HOT EXTENDED PERIOD.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 10-15
MPH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY DRIFT EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY ALLOWING THE PBL TO DRY
OUT AND DRIVING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES UP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  72  99  71 /  10  20  10  30
HUTCHINSON      95  71 100  70 /  10  20  20  30
NEWTON          94  71  98  71 /  10  20  20  30
ELDORADO        94  71  98  71 /  10  20  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  72  98  72 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELL         96  70  97  67 /  10  30  20  30
GREAT BEND      96  70  98  68 /  10  20  20  30
SALINA          95  72  99  69 /  10  30  20  30
MCPHERSON       95  71  99  70 /  10  20  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     93  70  96  72 /  10  10  20  30
CHANUTE         91  69  95  71 /  10  10  20  30
IOLA            90  69  94  70 /  10  10  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    93  70  95  71 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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