Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 161722
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1122 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY AS RIDGE MOVE ACROSS BUT LIMITED
MIXING AND COLD AIRMASS WILL LIKELY CUT DOWN THE DIURNAL RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES. APPEARS THAT CIRRUS WILL MOVE IN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SO TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC IN THE FAR
WEST. LOOKS LIKE HIGH CLOUDS WILL DECREASE A BIT DURING THE
NIGHT...SO LOWS COULD BE RATHER TRICKY. GIVEN OVERALL PATTERN AND
LIMITED CLOUDS...HAVE OPTED TO GO ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS.

WED-THU NIGHT:

STARTING WED UPPER JET/WAVE WILL INCREASE LIFT WHICH IS MAXIMIZED
WED NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING AND MOIST LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE HIGH PROBABILITY OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
SMALL...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW /IN THE VICINITY OF
AN INCH/ IN CENTRAL KS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO WANE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK THU AS WAVE PUSHES THROUGH...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOIST WILL LIKELY KEEP DRIZZLE/FLURRIES GOING INTO THU NIGHT ALL
AREAS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

LIGHT/TRACE PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER INTO FRI ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KS...BEFORE DRIER AIR FINALLY SPIILS INTO THE AREA. DECENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUN WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY. AT THIS POINT MODELS SHOW ONLY MINOR AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND DO NOT GENERATE QPF...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE FAIR AMOUNT OF LIFT. IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THIS...LOW CHANCE PRECIPITATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUN.
OTHERWISE...INTIALIZATION GRIDS APPEAR REASONABLE. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MVFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME...WITH KCNU THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT. SO WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP
FOR AN MVFR CIGS FOR KCNU FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT.  THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA FOR WED NIGHT.  WILL ALSO SEE A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST
FOR MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  22  39  32 /   0   0  10  50
HUTCHINSON      41  18  39  30 /   0   0  10  40
NEWTON          37  21  37  30 /   0   0  10  50
ELDORADO        39  20  38  31 /   0   0  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   42  22  37  33 /   0   0  20  50
RUSSELL         38  17  37  28 /   0   0  10  30
GREAT BEND      39  18  39  29 /   0   0  10  40
SALINA          38  18  37  29 /   0   0  10  50
MCPHERSON       39  18  38  30 /   0   0  10  50
COFFEYVILLE     40  22  39  34 /   0   0  20  50
CHANUTE         39  21  37  32 /   0   0  10  50
IOLA            38  21  37  32 /   0   0  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    40  20  38  33 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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