Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 150734
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
234 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

The highest probability for storms will occur across the central
high plains this afternoon and evening. This activity may spread
south and east impacting much of our forecast area during the
evening and overnight hours as the LLJ/ H85 moisture transport
noses into central Kansas. MUCAPE over 2000 J/KG and 0-6km bulk
shear of 30-40 knots may be supportive of a few severe storms
through the evening hours. There may also be an attempt across
southern Kansas with a remnant

Storms may be ongoing early in the period on Wednesday with
redevelopment along a southward advancing cold front on Wed
afternoon. A few strong or severe storms may be possible across
south central and southeast KS ahead of the front on Wed afternoon.

A stable post-frontal regime will develop in the wake of the front
on Thursday with seasonable highs in the upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Another shortwave trough is progged to sweep across the northern plains
bringing increasing chances for deep moist convection late Friday
and Friday night. Drier, more stable air will arrive across the
area on Saturday.

Rising heights/increasing thickness will support rising
temperatures toward the end of the period. Maintained low pops as
a series of shortwave troughs are progged to translate eastward
across the central plains states.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Main Aviation Concerns: Low stratus/fog potential late tonight

Light southeasterly boundary layer winds and surface dewpoints
near 70 to the lower 70s, should aid in the redevelopment of LIFR
stratus/fog again late tonight into early Tuesday morning. The
better signal area is roughly along/southeast of the Kansas
Turnpike affecting the ICT and CNU terminals, although there is a
chance for brief LIFR conditions at HUT and SLN. Convection
chances are highest over the high Plains overnight into Tuesday.
A few short range and hi-resolution models hint at an MCV feature
producing storms Tuesday afternoon in south-central Kansas. With
radar trends showing the mesoscale storm complex over the Texas
Panhandle propagating southward late this evening, confidence is
low for this progged MCV associated convection affecting south-
central Kansas Tuesday, so will leave thunder mention out of the
forecast at this time.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    90  74  90  67 /  10  50  50  40
Hutchinson      91  72  88  65 /  10  50  40  30
Newton          90  72  87  65 /  10  40  50  50
ElDorado        89  73  88  66 /  10  50  60  60
Winfield-KWLD   90  74  90  68 /  10  50  60  60
Russell         92  70  86  62 /  10  50  40  10
Great Bend      91  70  87  63 /  10  50  40  10
Salina          94  72  88  64 /  10  50  50  30
McPherson       91  71  88  64 /  10  50  40  30
Coffeyville     90  75  88  70 /  10  30  60  60
Chanute         89  75  87  69 /  10  40  60  70
Iola            88  74  86  68 /  10  40  60  70
Parsons-KPPF    90  75  88  70 /  10  40  60  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...JMC



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