Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 120356
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1056 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
* Very high to extreme fire danger today; very high fire danger
  Tuesday and Wednesday

* A few thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday
  morning across southeast KS

* Additional storms are possible Wednesday afternoon/evening across
  central and southeast KS

* Seasonal temperatures beyond Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Rest of this afternoon...

Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite imagery shows sharp
upper shortwave trough moving over Oklahoma and into the Ozarks.
Meanwhile, another shortwave upper trough is located over the Great
Basin. An upper ridge is sandwiched between these two features and
is generally located over the southern High Plains and much of the
Central Plains. With the upper ridge supporting warm conditions, and
and a decently tight pressure gradient promoting breezy southwest
winds to advect drier air into the region, fire weather concerns are
expected across a large part of the central CONUS for the rest of
the afternoon, including portions of central Kansas. After sunset,
winds are expected to back, which will advect better moisture
into the area, and winds are expected to decrease slightly which
will aid to end fire weather concerns.

Tuesday-Thursday...

A series of low to medium storm chances (15-40%) is expected to
begin Tuesday and last through Thursday for areas mainly along
and east of the Kansas Turnpike. The aforementioned shortwave
trough located over the Great Basin will quickly translate into
the southern/central Plains by this time tomorrow. With more
back low level flow early during the day on Tuesday, better low
level moisture is expected to be present across southeastern
Kansas Tuesday afternoon. However, the lack of good upper level
forcing, the potential for warm mid-level temps (capping), and
veering winds aiding in scouring out good moisture will likely
inhibit thunderstorm development across southeast Kansas. But!
If enough surface confluence along a weak dryline/frontal
boundary located across the area is present, and capping is
slightly weaker than currently forecast, an organized storm or
two cannot be ruled out prior to sunset Tuesday
afternoon/evening across southeast Kansas. Given the forecast
instability (MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg) and 0- 6 km shear
around 35 knots, large hail up to quarter-size cannot be ruled
out IF a storm develops. Chances of a storm or two developing
are quite low though (around 15-20%).

The large synoptic scale upper trough is expected to dig into the
desert southwest early on Wednesday, and another embedded shortwave
will come racing east out from over the Rockies and into the
southern/central plains Wednesday afternoon. Weak cyclogenesis is
expected across the High Plains as a result, and this surface low
should be over central/north-central Kansas by Wednesday afternoon.
There remains some uncertainty over the position of the surface low
and it`s associated boundaries, the quality of moisture surging
northward ahead of the advancing dryline, and how stout capping
will be in the warm sector. The best chance for the development
of thunderstorms will be along the warm front, but aside from
the NAM, trends in short-term models have been to have this warm
front further north, perhaps into northern Kansas/southern
Nebraska. Therefore, precipitation chances for locations along
and east of the Flint Hills Wednesday afternoon will likely rely
on the quality of low-level moisture and how weak/strong
capping will be in the warm sector ahead of the dryline. Odds
are, storms will likely struggle to develop Wednesday
afternoon/evening across southeast Kansas. Forcing for ascent
will likely be a bit too meager to overcome stout capping across
the area even if moisture is better than currently forecast.
Meanwhile, most eyes will likely be focused within the vicinity
of the warm front as showers and storms are possible along and
north of the I-70 corridor. Strong to severe storms cannot be
ruled out with any storms that develop, and large hail up to
quarter-size would be the main concern.

Models also show different solutions for Thursday. Better moisture
will push northward once again across eastern Kansas while an
advancing cold front surge across the state during the day.
Again, capping will be an issue for much of the day. However,
low level convergence is expected to be strong enough to break
the cap late in the afternoon or evening on Thursday within the
vicinity of the front. The primary uncertainty is the placement
of this front when CI occurs, but it will most likely be draped
somewhere across southeast Kansas. Currently, Thursday is the
day for high rain chances across portions of southeast Kansas
(30-40%).

Rest of the Week...

Going into the weekend and next week, the upper air pattern
will gradually transition from a split flow pattern to more of a
northwesterly flow regime across the central plains. This will
generally promote cooler and drier conditions across much of the
region. It`s possible the region`s next rain chances (after
Thursday) won`t be until the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

VFR conditions are expected for this TAF period. There is a
period of LLWS expected over KSLN, KHUT, KICT and KCNU during
the night. This is more directional shear development rather
than straight speed. This condition is expected to end by
10Z-12Z this morning. By then, mixing will return and the LLWS
condition will end. Otherwise, no aviation weather issues are
expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Today...

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of central Kansas
through 7PM this evening. Very high to extreme fire danger is
ongoing this afternoon due to warm, very dry, and breezy
conditions. South to southwest winds are generally sustained
around 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph at times. Relative
humidity values are generally ranging from 15-25% across south-
central and central Kansas. After 7PM this evening, relative
humidity values are expected to increase while winds slightly
decrease. This will help to gradually end fire weather concerns
around that time.

Tuesday-Thursday...

Very high grassland fire danger is possible each afternoon across
south-central Kansas and the Flint Hills on Tuesday and Wednesday,
and then across southeast Kansas on Thursday. Warm, dry, and breezy
conditions are expected to drive these concerns, although
cooler temperatures arriving during the day on Thursday may help
to mitigate fire concerns.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...ELM
FIRE WEATHER...JC


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