Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 250411
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1111 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Tonight-Tuesday:
Heating and low level moisture has resulted in potential for
isolated showers or thunderstorms across Southeast KS. These
should dissipate near sunset. Main show will be precipitation
associated with front and aided by strong diffluence that develops
this evening across the area. Precipitation will become likely by
daybreak in the west and slowly spread across the area on Monday
during the day. Clouds/south winds will keep temperatures quite
mild over most of the area tonight while cold air advection
spreads into extreme northwest sections around daybreak. Wide
range of temperatures anticipated on Monday in southeast Kansas.
Precipitation will continue on Monday night and Tuesday as front
drifts across the area. As previously alluded to, very dry
conditions will greatly limit flooding concerns, despite
approximately 2 inch QPF across most of central and south central
KS. Highs on Tuesday will may not reach 70 where clouds and
precipitation are most extensive. Extreme Southeast KS could
approach 80 prior to arrival of better cold air advection on
Tuesday.

Wednesday-Wednesday night:
Precipitation will end from north to south during the day for
most areas. Precipitation should be light throughout this period.
Extensive clouds will keep maxes near 70 on Wednesday. - Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Thursday-Sunday:
Appears to be a good signal for below normal temperatures, but
otherwise confidence is not that high. GFS/ECMWF are in decent
agreement with upper flow evolution during this period, but prior
runs have been rather diverse. Prior GFS runs had also shown
considerable run to run variability. It remains to be seen whether
the 1200 UTC runs have converged on the correct solution or
whether the GFS and ECMWF will part ways with their 0000 UTC runs.
GFS does appear to be overly generous with light precipitation
during this period in the upslope flow and this was removed.
Temperatures may be a degree or few too cool for highs given
impact of clouds and precipitation from GFS on blend, especially
Friday and Saturday. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

A slow moving cold front will slide east across central Kansas
late tonight into Monday. MVFR cigs/vsbys and scattered to
numerous showers and storms are expected along and behind the
front. South winds and VFR conditions will continue ahead of the
front tonight through Monday afternoon across south central and
southeast Kansas with isolated to widely scattered convection
possible. The front is expected to move across south central
Kansas on Monday evening.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    69  79  61  70 /  30  70  70  70
Hutchinson      69  75  57  69 /  60  80  70  60
Newton          68  79  59  68 /  30  70  70  70
ElDorado        70  82  62  70 /  20  60  60  70
Winfield-KWLD   70  83  63  71 /  20  50  60  70
Russell         62  64  52  67 /  80  90  60  30
Great Bend      64  65  53  67 /  80  90  60  30
Salina          69  74  57  69 /  60  80  70  50
McPherson       68  75  57  68 /  60  80  70  60
Coffeyville     69  86  67  78 /  10  20  20  40
Chanute         68  85  65  75 /  10  30  40  50
Iola            68  85  65  74 /  10  30  40  50
Parsons-KPPF    68  86  66  77 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...KED



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