000
FXUS63 KICT 242034
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
334 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

TONIGHT-SAT:
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MAINLY BUTLER COUNTY ON
EASTERN EDGE OF BETTER INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP SOME ISOLATED
CHANCES GOING UNTIL 7 PM FOR THAT. OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS PERIOD APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO A GRAZING SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS FAR NORTH/NE SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SAT. 1200 UTC MODELS WERE A BIT TOO EAGER...BREAKING OUT
EXTENSIVE CONVECTION ACROSS OK THIS MORNING...WHICH DID NOT OCCUR.
THIS CONVECTION SUBSEQUENTLY AFFECTED LOW LEVEL FIELDS OVER KS
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES/WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. PREVIOUS FORECAST LIKELY ON TRACK TRENDING WARMER ON
MAXES.

SAT NIGHT-MON:
MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION BOTH SAT NIGHT/SUN NIGHT WILL BE
STORMS DEVELOPING IN WESTERN KS ON DRYLINE AND WORKING INTO THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT. MODELS PORTEND LARGE CAP ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY...AND IN ABSENCE OF STRONG FRONT/CONVERGENCE SHOULD...
AT LEAST IN THEORY...PRECLUDE HOME GROWN STORMS. HOWEVER CAPE
WILL BE QUITE HIGH...SO LARGE CORE/STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY IF
ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH MAINLY MICROBURST
POTENTIAL. ODDLY...1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN THE USUAL 850MB MIXDOWN TEMPERATURES. THE
THICKNESS BASED NUMBERS ARE ALSO SIMILAR TO GOING FORECAST FOR
BOTH SAT/SUN...BUT WARMER THAN MON. GIVEN LARGE CAP ON MON AND
GOOD MIXING...AM INCLINED TO TREND WARMER. INCREASING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT STRONGER WINDS...THOUGH IT
APPEARS THAT THEY WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL STILL BE
STIFF BREEZE FOR THOSE OUT ON AREA LAKES THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

TUE-FRI:
EASTERN US RIDGE HOLDS TOUGH WHILE WESTERN TROUGH DIGS/MOVES
CLOSER THIS PERIOD...WITH FLOW ACROSS AREA BECOMING LESS ZONAL.
DRYLINE MOVES CLOSER AND DEPENDING ON MODEL...TUE NIGHT...WED
NIGHT AND/OR THU NIGHT COULD ALL POTENTIALLY BE QUITE ACTIVE WEST
OF I-35...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KS. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN CAPPING AND ORIENTITION/
CONVERGENCE ON DRYLINE WHICH WILL BE KEY FOR BOTH IF/WHERE STORMS
INITIATE. MAXES WILL BE TRICKY WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON CLOUDS AND
ANY LINGERING DAYTIME PRECIPITATION. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

MVFR CEILINGS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN A WARM MOIST
ADVECTIVE SCHEME. THINK MVFR CEILINGS COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION IS LOW. THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS SHOW SOMETHING DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA AND
MOVING NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT MUCH TO GO ON WITH THAT
AND HAVE LEFT THE TAF FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. CAN AMEND IF NEED BE
AT A LATE TIME. DO SHOW SOME MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA...LIKE PREVIOUS FORECASTER HAD FOR ANY PATCHY
FOG WITH THE PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD.
HOWEVER...BY MORNING GRADIENT WINDS AND MIXING WILL INDUCE
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE STRONG WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 KTS OR
HIGHER AND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG OUR WESTERN
SITES...KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT.

BILLINGS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  86  66  89 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      65  87  65  90 /  10  10  20  10
NEWTON          63  87  65  89 /  10  20  20  10
ELDORADO        62  85  65  86 /  10  10  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   64  84  66  87 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         65  89  65  91 /  20  20  30  20
GREAT BEND      64  89  65  91 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          65  87  65  90 /  20  20  30  10
MCPHERSON       64  87  65  90 /  10  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     60  82  65  84 /  10  20  10  10
CHANUTE         60  83  65  84 /  10  20  20  10
IOLA            59  83  64  84 /  10  20  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    60  83  65  84 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$