Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 271720
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1220 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After another unseasonably chilly day, a warming trend will
  lead us through the end of the week with increased southerly
  winds as well.

- Precip/convective chances look to return by Sunday night and
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Surface ridge and cold air in place to start the early morning
across central and eastern Kansas. We will remain situated
within the mean longwave upper trof across the central conus
with a weak shortwave grazing the area as it slides to the
east-southeast across the southern Plains today. Rather modest
mid-level lift/moisture may result some transient clouds and
perhaps some virga/sprinkles, mainly just north and south of the
forecast area. High temperatures though milder will still
remain well below late March climo. The longwave upper trof will
move bodily eastward tonight with ridging aloft translating
over the Plains for Thursday. The rising geopotential heights
and return southerly low level flow portends to a milder day
with high temperatures returning closer to seasonal climo.

Modest westerly flow aloft will prevail over the area on Friday
into Friday night as an upper trof moves across the northern
Plains into the Upper Midwest. The associated weak cold front
looks to drop southward across north central Kansas in the
afternoon as a dry-line mixes eastward across central Kansas.
Modest low level moisture advection will occur on the stronger
southerly flow ahead of the dry-line across the Flint Hills and
southeast Kansas. The gradient flow and steeper low level lapse
rates will lend to decent momentum transfer of strong winds to
the surface which may flirt with advisory criteria east of the
Kansas turnpike Friday afternoon. Highs should climb well into
the 70s area-wide, though a faster frontal passage could trim
highs a bit along/north of I-70.

The surface frontal boundary looks to waver across the area
through the weekend with slight ridging aloft downstream of the
developing upper trof/low settling over southern California.
Deeper moisture advection into the boundary and increased
baroclinicity along the front looks to occur by Sunday night
and Monday. This in concert with a more significant shortwave
ejecting from the Southwest conus upper low into the Plains
should provide better precip/convective chances for the area.
While a long ways out, the projected instability/shear combo
could support organized severe storms across southeast Kansas.
There is general support for much cooler weather in the wake of
this system/front by Tuesday.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period. Light
and variable winds will become southerly this afternoon at 5-10
kt. Southerly winds will further increase by mid-morning
Thursday to 10-15 kt with gusts 15-20 kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Muted fire weather concerns again today with light winds and
unseasonably cool temperatures. However, as we head into
Thursday afternoon increasing south winds and warmer air with
modestly low humidity levels will result in a few hours of very
high grassland fire danger across central Kansas. Even warmer
temperatures are expected on Friday afternoon across the entire
area. The strongest south winds are expected east of the Kansas
turnpike with the lowest humidities further west over central
Kansas with passage of a dry-line. So the overlapping wind and
humidity values result in a very high fire danger across the
Flint Hills and south central Kansas and a portion of central
Kansas south of a Salina to Great Bend line. That said, the
timing of the cold front and dry-line into central Kansas could
alter fire weather conditions, so check later forecasts.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...BMB
FIRE WEATHER...KED


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