Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 291732
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1232 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

ALL REMAINS QUIET ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS FAIRLY LARGE...BUT
WEAK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NEIGHBORHOOD. CLEAR SKIES &
NORTHWEST <7 MPH HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE INTO THE 40S IN
ALL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THIS MORNING:
WITH CLEAR SKIES & LIGHT NW WINDS TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL KS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO NEAR 32F & AS SUCH THE FROST ADVISORY NO DOUBT REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL KS UNTIL 9 AM.

TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT:
IT`LL CONTINUE TO BE "CLEAR SAILING" FOR ALL AREAS AS A BROAD UPPER
DECK RIDGE THAT COVERS THE WESTERN U.S. QUICKLY AMPLIFIES AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT & THU THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FRI & FRI NIGHT. FRI NIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AS THE NW FLOW
DRIVES A STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH SE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE IA/MO
BORDER. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED FRI NIGHT`S LOWS INTO THE LOWER-MID 20S.
FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR FRI NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

A STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER DECK TROF MOVING EAST OVER THE WEST COAST
SAT MORNING WILL TAKE ON A STRONGLY POSITIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES
THE ROCKIES. BY MON NIGHT THE MID-UPPER TROF SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE
DAKOTAS TO BAJA CA. THIS WOULD PROMOTE RAPID LOWER-DECK TROFFING
OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS THAT WOULD IN TURN INDUCE PRONOUNCED LOWER
DECK MOIST ADVECTION THAT WOULD TARGET EASTERN OK...SOUTHEAST KS &
MO. AS SUCH SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THESE
AREAS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE WITH THE BETTER CHANCES SLOWLY
SHIFTING SE MON NIGHT & TUE. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL & SC KS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WINDS COULD GET GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE KRSL AND
KSLN TERMINALS AS CLEAR SKIES ALLOW HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TERMINALS
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE IMPACTED FIRST...FOLLOWED BY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

JMR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  42  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      70  41  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          69  42  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        69  42  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  42  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         71  43  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      70  42  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          69  42  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       69  41  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     69  41  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         67  40  67  37 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            67  40  67  37 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    68  40  67  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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