Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 040509
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1209 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

DIURNAL HEATING BENEATH LINGERING WEAK TROF ALOFT HAS RESULTED
IN WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WHERE AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE
RESIDES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THEREFORE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO SEE ITS DEMISE WITH LOSS OF HEATING TOWARD SUNSET. ELEVATED
WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT SHOULD
FOSTER CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WITH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT CARRYING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. MOST OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THE 4TH OF JULY SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HOWEVER...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROF WILL VENTURE SOUTHEAST INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROF OVER WESTERN
KANSAS BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND DECENT ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A MORE ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IF SO...THEN POPS WILL NEED TO BE
RAMPED UP ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THIS CONVECTION
WOULD LIKELY CARRY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. A WARMER AND WINDY DAY IS THEN
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON
WILL HINGE ON THE EXTENT OF ANY PRIOR ACTIVITY. IF A MORE
EXTENSIVE MCS EVOLVES THEN SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE MAY LIMIT
DIURNAL/AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. SO FOR NOW WILL RETAIN SOME
CHANCES...THOUGH TWEAK DOWN A BIT.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL
PUSH A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT FOR EARLY JULY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGHER POPS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AN OCCASIONALLY DISTURBED WESTERLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIODS AS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES INLAND. THE RETREATING SURFACE FRONT
MIGRATING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PERIODIC
CONVECTIVE EPISODES...WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE GOING
FORECAST. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE UPPER LOW TO OPEN
UP AND LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH RIDGING ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD
PORTEND TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES
BY FRIDAY.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
STATE...WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AND BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEY WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY.
A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PRESENT AT KCNU...AND WHILE
OBSERVATIONS SOUTH OF KCNU ARE SHOWING LOWER VISIBILITIES...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO KCNU...DO NOT ANTICIPATE
THIS TO IMPACT THE KCNU TERMINAL. ALL OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR AS WELL. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOVE TOWARDS TO
REGION DURING THE EVENING SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE THIS WILL IMPACT
THE WESTERN TERMINALS IS LOW AND HAVE LEFT OUT AT THIS TIME AS
GUIDANCE HAS LITTLE CONSISTENCY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  92  74  88 /  40  30  30  60
HUTCHINSON      70  93  73  87 /  40  30  40  70
NEWTON          70  91  72  86 /  40  30  30  60
ELDORADO        70  90  73  87 /  30  30  20  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  91  74  88 /  40  40  20  60
RUSSELL         70  95  72  82 /  30  20  50  60
GREAT BEND      69  94  72  83 /  30  20  50  60
SALINA          70  94  73  85 /  30  20  40  60
MCPHERSON       71  92  72  86 /  30  30  40  60
COFFEYVILLE     69  89  73  88 /  20  40  20  50
CHANUTE         68  89  73  87 /  10  30  20  60
IOLA            69  88  72  86 /  10  30  20  60
PARSONS-KPPF    69  89  73  87 /  10  40  20  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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