000
FXUS63 KICT 180448
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1147 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

MCV WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN KANSAS AS OF 20Z...WITH A FEW STORMS
STILL ONGOING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE AREA HAS REMAINED IN SOME TYPE OF
NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT FLOW. THE COLD POOL AND CLOUDS FROM THE
MCS THAT AFFECTED THAT AREA HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN
TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE STRONG CONVECTION RELEGATED TO THE
INTER MOUNTAIN REGION AT THIS TIME.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP ENDING AT 20Z SHOWS A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY
WITH TROUGHING AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. RIDGING
EXISTS OVER THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST...WITH A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB
OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE MAIN CHANGES WILL BE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL CAUSE A WARMING TREND...AND
WILL ALSO RESULT IN REDUCING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
REGION.

COOK

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THERE WERE 2 REASONS FOR THE UPDATE: 1) TO CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF
THE CWA AS CU IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING & CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER NRN AR IS SLOWLY VACATING SE KS. 2)
TO REMOVE POPS FROM SE KS AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE CONTS
TO MOVE E ACROSS NRN AR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THE MCV OVER EASTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE THEIR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WITH
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...MAY REACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA /CENTRAL KANSAS/ TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER SUPPORTING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS IN PLACE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED SEVERE CHANCES
DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING GETS GOING WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD.

ONE THING WORTH NOTING...THE WIND FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN
WELL UNDERDONE IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME-FRAME. BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS WINDS IN THE AREA OF 25 KNOTS ACROSS
THE REGION...A BIT HIGHER ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 135...A BIT
LOWER EAST OF IT.

THIS IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THE GRIDDED NWP DATA THAT WE ARE
LOOKING AT. THE BUFKIT DATA HAS A LONG HISTORY OF VERIFICATION
THAT IS VERY GOOD...AS DOES THE GRIDDED MOS /STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE/ WHICH IS SUPPORTING A HIGHER WIND FORECAST FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. FURTHERMORE...EXAMINING THE IA STATE METEOGRAM
FORECASTS...WE ARE THE LOW OUTLIER WITH THE SPEEDS IN THE FORECAST.

AS A RESULT...COORDINATED A DEVIATION FROM THE EXTENDED FORECAST
DATA THAT WE NORMALLY POPULATE THE FORECAST WITH AND HAVE GONE
HIGHER WITH THE WIND SPEED FORECAST...MORE IN LINE WITH THE BUFKIT
FORECAST.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

MAIN CHALLENGE HERE WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGING CONTINUES
TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL REACH
WELL INTO THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS NOTHING THOUGH THAT WOULD INDICATE ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANT HEAT INDICES AT THIS TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NOTED AT THIS TIME.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

NO WIND & SOAKED GROUNDS POINT TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER SE KS EARLY
THIS MORNING & HAVE NOW ASSIGNED 2-4SM BR TO KCNU FROM 09Z-13Z. NO
OTHER DIFFICULTIES TO BE ENCOUNTERED FOR THE REMAINDER OF 18/06Z
TAF EDITION WITH LGT & VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SE <=10KTS BY 1818Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  84  65  85 /  10  10  20  30
HUTCHINSON      64  84  64  85 /   0  10  20  30
NEWTON          64  83  63  84 /   0  10  10  20
ELDORADO        64  83  64  83 /   0  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  85  65  85 /  10  10  10  30
RUSSELL         63  83  64  85 /  20  10  30  30
GREAT BEND      63  83  64  84 /  10  10  30  30
SALINA          64  85  65  86 /   0  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       64  84  64  85 /   0  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     66  86  66  85 /  10  10  10  20
CHANUTE         64  85  65  84 /   0  10  10  20
IOLA            64  85  65  84 /   0  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    65  85  65  84 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ES