Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 202147
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
347 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 334 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Cold air has moved in across the entire state of Kansas.
This has created a mess of a situation in southeast Kansas with a
mixture of precipitation including freezing rain and sleet. Ice
accumulations combined with the winds have caused broken branches
and even downed powerlines for the far southeast portion of the
state. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 6PM and
precipitation is expected to complete exit the far corner by 9PM.
There has been a clearing in the cloud cover gradually as the wave
moves out of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 334 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

1) Precipitation types
2) Precipitation chances
3) Winter Weather Advisory issued for Wed night

As mentioned in the synopsis section, freezing rain and sleet have
made for a not so pleasant day in southeast Kansas. As the trough
continues to push out of the area, the chances for precipitation
are going to diminish for the rest of the afternoon into the
evening hours. Additional ice accumulations are possible in that
corner of the state. Roads will become slippery as the sun goes
down and the temperatures drop for areas where they have not
become so already. A Winter Weather Advisory is still in effect
until 6 PM in southeast Kansas. Please see the advisory for more
information.

Two words could describe this forecast: complicated and messy. The
main trough is staying along the Rockies into the Baja. This
system is going to continue to send waves through much of the
forecast. There is a wave across Texas that is going to move
north. Another round of a mixed bag of precipitation is
anticipated as this system moves through. There is decent
associated isentropic lift. Again the question is how warm will
the temperatures be aloft. If you believe the NAM, this would
suggest a warmer layer with 850mb temperatures right around 0 in
south central Kansas. Then there is the GFS showing a cooler warm
layer especially after midnight when the freezing line is pushed
further east. Surface temperatures are going to be in the 20s for
most of the area.

Precipitation types were very challenging because of these
differences beginning primarily Wednesday evening into early
Thursday. The current blend shows primarily a mixture of freezing
rain and sleet. It is possible with the cooler solutions that
there could be sleet once more for much of south central Kansas.
Models are also hinting at various amounts for the quantitative
precipitation forecast (qpf) which plays a factor in to the
potential ice accumulations. The trend is towards a higher amount
of precipitation which would be nice especially for south central
Kansas; however, the freezing rain precipitation type is certainly
not desired. Expectations for the current qpf values would lead
to ice accumulations of around a tenth to possibly two tenths of
an inch based on a blend of models and WPC guidance. On Wednesday
night, the winds will be lighter than today which should help
diminish the possible damage to the powerlines and tree branches.
A Winter Weather Advisory was issued from the mid afternoon on
Wednesday to Thursday morning given the potential situation as
highlighted above.

Chances of precipitation are essentially in most of the forecast. On
Thursday afternoon, it is expected that there will be a transition
to rain instead of the mix for a period in time. Temperatures are
the key especially given the surface from the first part of the day.
High temperatures are anticipated to rise above freezing in the
afternoon. Stay tuned for updates as this evolving forecast is
going to change as further model guidance is provided.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

A trough axis will move through on Saturday. There will be another
round of potential freezing rain and sleet on Friday night into
early Saturday morning in central Kansas. Thankfully the rest of the
county warning area is anticipated to stay warm enough to keep the
precipitation in the liquid variety. A return to temperatures in the
50s for the weekend is certainly going to feel nice after this week.
Discrepancies exist in the extended or last days of the forecast
period with the GFS keeping the active pattern. It is too early in
the forecast to know if anything will happen.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

The bulk of aviation concerns throughout the 18Z TAF period will
be in southeast Kansas at CNU, which is continuing to be impacted
by mixed precip consisting mostly of freezing rain at the time of
issuance. This freezing rain is likely to continue through at
least 23Z, resulting in reduced visibilities and IFR conditions.
MVFR cigs are present at all other area airports, and these MVFR
ceilings should persist over the next few hours before
transitioning to VFR later this evening. Will be monitoring all
sites closely, particularly CNU, and will update as needed
throughout the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 334 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Multiple rounds of precipitation essentially diminish fire weather
concerns in this forecast. Accumulations will certainly help the
dry conditions across the state.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    18  32  24  36 /  10  30  70  50
Hutchinson      15  31  21  35 /   0  20  60  40
Newton          15  32  22  35 /   0  20  70  40
ElDorado        17  32  24  37 /   0  20  80  60
Winfield-KWLD   20  31  26  38 /  10  30  80  60
Russell          8  29  18  33 /   0  10  30  20
Great Bend      10  29  18  34 /   0  10  30  20
Salina          12  31  21  35 /   0  10  50  40
McPherson       14  31  21  34 /   0  20  60  40
Coffeyville     24  36  29  45 /  30  20  70  60
Chanute         22  34  27  41 /  20  20  70  60
Iola            20  34  27  40 /  20  10  80  50
Parsons-KPPF    23  35  29  44 /  30  20  70  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
for KSZ050>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ071-
072-094>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...TAV
FIRE WEATHER...VJP



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