Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
702
FXUS63 KICT 230332
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1032 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Strong ridging, sunny skies and brisk southerly winds ahead of
the next cold front will keep the above normal temperatures in the
region. Confidence remains high for this potential through
Saturday. Currently the Gulf of Mexico is closed off with easterly
flow along the Gulf Coast. This will help bring the above normal
temperatures in the region as the mid and upper levels will remain
dry. By Sunday, the winds along the Gulf Coast will shift around
to the south and southwest opening up the Gulf of Mexico and will
allow the return flow to establish itself just ahead of the
incoming frontal system. This increased in moisture and
instability will allow the a chance for some scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the region Sunday.

By Monday, the return flow will have been established for at
least 12 hours which will increase the moisture transport into the
region. This front will be very slow moving so the main thrust of
rain will develop in Western and Central Kansas and slowly march
to the east. This slow moving frontal system will keep the
moisture transport and forcing in the region for an extended
period of time allowing for several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. While the chances for thunderstorms will be high
during this time, instability and shear look rather weak so this
thunderstorm activity is not expected to severe at this time.
During this slow transit time, the Corfidi vectors indicate a good
chance for some heavy rain for a sustained period of time Monday
night into Tuesday. Some areas are likely to pick up some
significant rain during this time. Frontal passage is expected to
occur some time Tuesday morning. Once the front passes, the rain
chances will slowly drop off and the heavy rain threat will end.
Some scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible behind
the front but the rainfall amounts are not expected to be
significant.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Wednesday, the cold front will be slowly moving out the region
which will keep the showers and thunderstorms along the Oklahoma
state line and in Southeast Kansas. There is the potential for
some heavy rain with this activity but the rain threat will
diminish rapidly during the day Wednesday. Much cooler air will be
moving into the region as a cool Canadian high pressure system
will slowly build into the area. Most long range models are in
agreement with temperatures below normal for the remainder of the
week however, the long range models do not really agree on the how
much drying will occur. The ECMWF looks be a little drier while
the GFS family is a little more humid. This difference could cause
min temperatures late next week to be a few degrees cooler than
currently forecast should the ECMWF win out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

VFR conditions will prevail all terminals the next 24 hours.
Saturday will be a carbon copy of Friday`s weather, with the main
hazard being stout/gusty south winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  91  69  88 /   0   0   0  20
Hutchinson      72  90  68  87 /   0  10   0  20
Newton          71  90  68  86 /   0  10   0  20
ElDorado        71  91  68  87 /   0   0   0  20
Winfield-KWLD   72  91  68  87 /   0   0   0  20
Russell         73  89  70  84 /  10  20  10  50
Great Bend      72  88  68  84 /   0  10  10  40
Salina          73  90  70  89 /   0  10   0  20
McPherson       72  90  68  87 /   0  10   0  20
Coffeyville     69  91  68  88 /   0   0   0  10
Chanute         68  90  67  87 /   0   0   0  10
Iola            69  89  67  87 /   0   0   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    69  90  68  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...ADK



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.