Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 271913
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
213 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

A roller coaster of weather will be the highlight for central and
southeast Kansas over the next 7 days.

For late afternoon and tonight...A complex weather pattern is in
place over the eastern half of KS. A cold front is situated to
the north, a boundary is running parallel to the KS and OK border.
Storms will be possible across all areas early on this afternoon
with the chances moving east and south through the afternoon and
evening hours.

The highest probability for storms will be east of a salina to
Anthony line, while the greatest risk area for significant weather
being to the east of the KS turnpike. A large amount of
instability will be present east of the Flint Hills in southeast
Kansas late this afternoon with CAPE values running in the 5-6K
range and decent steep lapse rates. This means that there will be
a continued risk for all phases of hazardous weather through 9 to
10 pm time frame. Some lingering showers or storms may still
occur around midnight in the far southeast sections.

Sunday through Monday night...High pressure will remain in control
and tranquil weather will prevail.

Tuesday will bring about another chance for storms, however, these
storms look to remain non-severe or on the low end of severe
weather.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Typical May weather will ensue as a slew of weak upper
disturbances and weak fronts move through keeping storm chances in
the forecast almost every day during this period. At this time,
these storms do not look to serious or have a significant risk for
severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Thunderstorms will be likely for most aviation sites today as a
couple of boundaries play havoc with the weather. A cold front
will drop SE out of NC KS during the day causing enough
convergence to produce storms. These should be more elevated than
those to the south where more surface based storms are possible.
The best instability will reside east of the Flint hills and that
is where the strongest storms will be. CIGS will fluctuate quite a
bit with the mulitude of boundaries and storms. VSBYS should be
good for the most part except when storms are occurring at the
site.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    58  81  56  84 /  20   0   0  10
Hutchinson      56  80  55  81 /  10   0   0  10
Newton          56  79  56  81 /  20   0   0  10
ElDorado        57  79  56  82 /  20   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   59  81  56  84 /  30   0   0  10
Russell         53  79  53  79 /  10   0   0  10
Great Bend      54  79  53  80 /  10   0   0  10
Salina          55  80  55  80 /  10   0   0  10
McPherson       55  79  55  80 /  10   0   0  10
Coffeyville     62  80  55  84 /  40  10   0  10
Chanute         61  80  55  83 /  30  10   0  20
Iola            60  80  55  82 /  30  10   0  20
Parsons-KPPF    61  80  55  84 /  30  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWH
LONG TERM...CWH
AVIATION...CWH


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