Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 271724
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1124 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

LATEST 88D IMAGES AND SURFACE OBS SUGGEST MOST OF THE LINGERING
PRECIP RETURNS ARENT REACHING THE GROUND.  MAINLY JUST SOME FLURRIES
OR A FEW BURSTS OF SNOW...STILL ALONG THE LAST MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC ZONE.  SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN TRACE AMOUNTS
OR A DUSTING ON GRASSY AREAS.  LATEST VERY SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST
THIS FRONTOGENETIC ZONE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH E-SE FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH THE LAST AREA OF LIFT AND LIGHT SNOW PUSHING
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 18-19Z. CURRENT GRIDS/ZONES
HANDLE THIS WELL.

AFTER THIS LIGHT SNOW ENDS...EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING OF THE CLOUD
COVER FROM NW TO SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE
KICKS IN FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS HAVE
ALREADY CLEARED OUT....WITH SE KS THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT BY THIS
EVENING.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA
DOWNSTREAM FROM A SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OVER THE
REGION. THIS AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY IMPACT SOUTHEAST
KANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES BY LATE MORNING ACROSS SE
KANSAS. A COOLER AIRMASS HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT WITH MORE SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 30S/AROUND 40
ANTICIPATED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES RESULTING IN LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TEENS
ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO AROUND 20 OVER SE KS.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS MODERATION WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON MON-MON NIGHT ALTHOUGH
VERY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WHEN THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS ON TUE MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ONCE AGAIN ON WED-THU
AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. MORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES APPEAR AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE GFS MAINTAINS A TRACK FURTHER NORTH WITH THE MID/UPPER
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF.
MAINTAINED MID POPS LATE THU-FRI BUT CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
TYPE/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAINS LOW DUE TO LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
PHASE & AMPLITUDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
WILL SEE SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER SE KS MOVE EAST
INTO SW MO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  CURRENT RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST SOME
FLURRIES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN THE
KCNU TAF...AS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MAINLY VIRGA WITH NO
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AS A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  18  41  23 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      36  16  40  20 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          33  16  40  20 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        37  18  42  23 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   38  19  42  24 /  20   0   0   0
RUSSELL         32  11  39  19 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      33  13  39  19 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          34  16  39  20 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       34  16  40  20 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     39  20  41  23 /  60   0   0   0
CHANUTE         38  19  40  22 /  40   0   0   0
IOLA            38  20  39  22 /  30   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    39  19  40  22 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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