Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 161223
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
623 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 308 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Forecast Headline/Highlight:
Wind Chill Advisory remains in effect until noon Today.

Today & Tonight:
A STRONG Canadian surface high is centered over the Dakotas while
a deep, elongated mid-upper deck low was situated from the Quebec/
Ontario border to the Upper Mississippi Valley. Both continue to
inject dangerously cold air across the Great Plains as evidenced
by temperatures around zero that have just crossed the Nebraska/
Kansas state line. The strength of the surface high has helped to
keep NW 10 to 15 mph winds prevalent across KS which is producing
wind chills from -10 to -17 across most of KS. The strong surface
high will continue to drift almost due south & should cover most
of the Southern Plains late tonight. This will obviously keep the
Great Plains in a deep freeze. Although the Wind Chill Advisory is
in effect until noon, highs that`ll only reach 10 to 15F in most
areas will combine with NW winds around 10 mph to produce wind
chills from zero to 5 below) across areas along & east of I-135
throughout the afternoon. Although winds will diminish & become
light southerly late tonight, lows between zero and 5 above will
still grip the forecast area with wind chills between 10 and 15
below across all of Central KS.

Wed-Thu Night:
It won`t be nearly as cold Wed as the afore-mentioned surface high
continues to sink toward the Gulf Coast. Coupled with broad lower
deck troffing across the Western Plains, the departing high would
enable south winds to slowly increase. Wed`s highs would however
be tempered by snow cover across Eastern KS. It`ll be much warmer
on Thu with highs approaching 55F in Great Bend & Russell while
the remainder of KICT Country rebounds into the mid & upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 308 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Next Weekend:
Nice weather is still slated for all areas thru Sat evening as a
SE-moving cold front approaches the Nebraska/KS state line. The
front`s positioning would enable modest S/SW winds to promote warm
advection thru late Sat Afternoon. The front is then scheduled to
move further into KS Sat Night as a strengthening surface low
moves east, then northeast across KS & MO. Areas of light rain
should develop late Sat Night with a changeover to light snow in
Central KS Sun Morning. The greatest chances for precipitation
should occur Sunday & Sunday evening as the intense surface low
begins to lift NE toward, & perhaps across, the Mid Mississippi
Valley Sunday evening. There is still disagreement on the track of
the low with the GFS faster than the ECMWF which would no doubt
have ramifications on the snow potential Sunday & Sunday evening.
This cold front won`t be nearly as strong with lows Sunday Night
only expected to settle into the 20s.

Mon:
It`ll be a nice start to the work-week as the INTENSE surface
cyclone scoots across the Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great
Lakes regions while a broad ridge axis spreads into the plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 620 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Low clouds will flirt with KSLN/KCNU and possibly KICT this morning
as low level moisture interacts with upper trough rotating through
the area today. Short range models were struggling with the low
level moisture. Ironically the ECMWF seemed to have a the best
handle on it and it suggests that the few-scattered 025-035 would
be more likely than broken at the TAF sites. Will go this route
for now and continue to monitor satellite trends. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    14   3  33  18 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      13   2  33  17 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          11   2  30  17 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        11   1  30  17 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   15   3  32  18 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         15   2  37  17 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      15   3  38  17 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          13   0  32  16 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       12   0  32  16 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     13   2  29  17 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         11   1  27  16 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            10   0  26  16 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    12   1  28  15 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...PJH



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