Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 252331
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
631 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Main challenge tonight will be potential for reduced visibilities
in fog across central Kansas. Latest guidance and local fog
procedure would suggest a combination of stratus build-down and
radiational fog development on the back edge of the moist cyclonic
flow exiting the area. This will be collocated near the transient
surface ridge/light wind axis and also where some of the higher
rainfall occurred in the past 24 hours. So have inserted areas of
fog generally along/west of the Flint Hills after midnight. Some
locally dense fog is possible which could necessitate a headline
if confidence increases during the evening. Otherwise, the main
focus will be with the increasing rain/storm chances again late
Sunday through early Monday. The approaching upper trof will begin
to affect central Kansas by Sunday afternoon with numerous to
widespread rainfall from showers and embedded thunder by Sunday
evening/night. The latest track keeps the surface warm sector just
south across Oklahoma, though elevated instability across southern
Kansas through Sunday evening will be sufficient (800 to 1200
j/kg) with 40-45kts of cloud bearing shear, for a few strong to
marginally severe storms. The additional rainfall will be welcome
for areas that missed out of late, though some localized heavy
rainfall is also possible. Somewhat similar to today, Monday will
see some rain chances lingering across the Flint Hills/southeast
Kansas into the afternoon, though trending dry for all areas late
Monday through much of Tuesday. Precip chances look to return by
Tuesday night as the next closed low approaches.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

The closed upper low over the southwest CONUS will migrate slowly
eastward across the central/southern Plains through the mid-week
periods. There remains some variance in the medium range on the
its evolution/movement which will have ramifications on precip
chances and amounts across the forecast area. For now will
maintain relatively high PoPs with highest confidence across the
southern portion of the area. Another upper trof is progged to dig
south along the West coast into the southwest CONUS late next
week.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Aviation concerns will be low clouds overnight along with
developing fog.

Widespread MVFR ceilings remain over the majority of the area with
clearing taking place west of I-135. Through 06z, confidence is
high that at least some MVFR ceilings will remain in place for
areas along and east of I-135 with KHUT-KRSL maybe seeing some
pockets of clearing. Expecting fog to develop after midnight with
highest confidence over the western portions of the forecast area
where clearing is currently taking place. For KICT-KSLN, think
we`ll see some fog, but also think stratus will remain in place.
So will bring visibilities down the lowest at KHUT and KRSL but
if we get some stratus build-down, not out of the question to see
some dense fog further east. Regardless, think IFR conditions will
be likely early Sun morning across most areas whether it`s from
fog, stratus or both.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Periodic episodes for widespread significant rainfall can be
expected over the next seven days. Even the rain-free days are
only expected to see a modest wind and humidity combo, which
will keep the grassland fire danger below the more critical
values, generally in the moderate to high category.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    39  69  47  62 /   0  30  80  30
Hutchinson      37  66  44  61 /   0  40  80  20
Newton          38  66  45  60 /  10  30  80  30
ElDorado        40  68  47  61 /  10  30  80  30
Winfield-KWLD   39  71  49  63 /   0  30  80  20
Russell         35  63  40  62 /   0  50  70  10
Great Bend      35  64  41  62 /   0  60  80  10
Salina          37  65  44  62 /  10  30  80  20
McPherson       36  65  44  61 /  10  40  80  30
Coffeyville     42  72  52  63 /  20  20  80  30
Chanute         42  69  50  61 /  20  10  90  40
Iola            43  67  50  60 /  20  10  90  50
Parsons-KPPF    42  70  51  62 /  20  20  80  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...KED


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