Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 210522
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IS INCREASING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS EAST OF
I-35 FROM LATE TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE LOWERED VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THESE AREAS TO AROUND 1/2 MILE AS GFS SOUNDINGS HAVE JOINED THE
ITS COHORTS WITH FOGGING IN ALL OF THESE AREAS. CHECKED SWING ON DENSE
FOG ADVISORY ISSUANCE...FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

WITH VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW SLOWLY BECOMING EAST/SOUTHEAST SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S WOULD SLOWLY MIGRATE FROM OK ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS STARTING ~4AM. NEARLY ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS (GFS IS THE
EXCEPTION) DEPICT STRONG FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL &
PARTS OF CENTRAL KS TO AS FAR NORTH AS KRSL EARLY TUE MORNING. FOR NOW
HAVE APPLIED "PATCHY" DESCRIPTOR TO THESE AREAS FROM ~4AM-9AM BUT WILL
WATCH CLOSELY. (ESPECIALLY AFTER WHAT TRANSPIRED EARLY THIS MORNING.)

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TONIGHT-TUE:
MAIN FOCUS IS TIMING/AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKELY...BUT GIVEN GRADIENT OF 850MB MOISTURE
AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION...WOULD NOT DISCOUNT A FEW SPRINKLES/
SPOTTY SHOWERS. ALSO GOOD CHANCE OF 3-5SM VISIBILITY IN FOG BUT
DENSE FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY. AFTER MORNING CLOUDS...MILD DAY IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WED-THU:
MOISTURE INCREASES WED AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE...SETTING STAGE
FOR MAINLY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR WEST SECTIONS ON WED DURING DAY...ALL OF
THE AREA WED NIGHT AND THEN EXITING SOUTHEAST KS ON THU DURING THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL US
FRI-SAT...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN AND TROUGH MOVING INTO
SUN/MON. ONCE AGAIN...ECMWF/GFS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
IN THE PATTERN TRANSITION ON SUN/MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD AHEAD OF FRONT. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN
GFS/ECMWF ON FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TEMPERATURES COULD GO EITHER WAY.
IF WARMER TEMPERATURES VERIFY PER ECMWF...MAXES COULD MAKE THE
LOWER 80S ON MON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS.
HOWEVER COOLER SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING MAXES ONLY IN THE UPPER
50S/NEAR 60. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THERE ARE NO CONCERNS UNTIL ~08Z WHEN AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP EAST
OF I-35/I-135. ALL SOUNDINGS NOW DEPICT FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
VSBYS AT KCNU WITH IFR VSBYS LIKELY AT KICT...KHUT & KSLN FROM 08Z-15Z.
THE FOG WOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z AROUND WHICH TIME ~3,500FT CIGS ARE
LIKELY OVER MOST AREAS (ESPECIALLY SC & SE KS).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  77  59  77 /  10  10  50  20
HUTCHINSON      57  77  58  77 /  10  20  60  10
NEWTON          57  76  58  76 /   0  10  60  20
ELDORADO        56  77  58  75 /   0  10  60  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  77  59  76 /  10  10  50  20
RUSSELL         58  77  56  77 /   0  40  60  10
GREAT BEND      58  77  56  78 /   0  30  60  10
SALINA          57  77  58  78 /   0  20  60  10
MCPHERSON       57  77  58  77 /   0  20  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     54  72  56  72 /   0  10  40  40
CHANUTE         52  69  56  72 /   0  10  50  30
IOLA            51  68  56  72 /   0  10  50  40
PARSONS-KPPF    53  71  56  71 /   0  10  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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