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000
FXUS63 KICT 192030
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
330 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH HOT AND MOSTLY DRY SUMMER WEATHER
LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

DIFFICULT THUNDERSTORM FORECAST TONIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY
A WEAK 700-500MB RIPPLE IS ADVANCING EAST ACROSS EASTERN KS. GIVEN
THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE RELATIVELY UNCAPPED AIRMASS IN
PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED HIT-AND-MISS THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET. NOT ANTICIPATING
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE THOUGH. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO LATER TONIGHT WHEN
EASTERN FRINGE OF ADVANCING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...DRAMATICALLY INCREASING 800-600MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION FROM
WEST TO EAST...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2-3AM
WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES MAY BE OVER
CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS WHERE NOSE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
POINTING. NAM AND GFS ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGS INDICATE ~2500 J/KG
INSTABILITY FROM PARCELS ROOTED AROUND 800MB...ALONG WITH AROUND 30
KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...INDICATING STRONG TO SEVERE HAILERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM. HOWEVER...UNSURE ON HOW
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE GIVEN THE CONVECTION-SUPPRESSING AFFECTS
OF MID/UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WHICH
MAY BE A REASON WHY THE LATEST HRRR AND KF NAM STRUGGLE IN
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. AGAIN...HIGHEST POTENTIAL MAY
REMAIN OVER CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS AND POINTS NORTH.
NEVERTHELESS...HELD ONTO MODEST CHANCE POPS GIVEN STRENGTH OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ANTICIPATING ACTIVITY TO
FESTER MUCH OF THU MORNING EAST OF I-135...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS.

ADK

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

OTHERWISE...BUILDING MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK...AND ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL SUMMER HEAT TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED HIT-AND-MISS
AFTERNOON-EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FRI-SAT...AS ECMWF HINTS AT SUBTLE
WEAKNESSES PROGRESSING OVER THE AREA...BUT THINKING THIS THREAT WILL
BE QUITE ISOLATED. OTHERWISE...WITH GFS ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL
ECMWF BUILDING RIDGE INTO EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT ABOVE NORMAL SUMMER HEAT IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S WILL PREVAIL
REGIONWIDE...WARMEST GENERALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF KS...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S ALL AREAS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...BUT LOW CUMULUS CLOUDS
COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED TO
3500+ KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT AND HAVE LEFT OUT ANY
MENTION AT THIS TIME AND WILL ALLOW FOR AMENDMENTS IF SOMETHING
DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
AND HAVE A VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR STORMS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE A
BIT WEAKER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT STILL EXPECTING GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH MIXING.

BILLINGS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  90  73  95 /  40  40  10  10
HUTCHINSON      69  93  73  96 /  40  30  10  10
NEWTON          68  88  73  94 /  40  50  10  10
ELDORADO        69  87  72  92 /  40  40  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  89  73  93 /  30  40  10  10
RUSSELL         68  97  73  98 /  40  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      68  97  72  97 /  30  10  10  10
SALINA          70  91  74  96 /  50  50  10  10
MCPHERSON       69  91  73  96 /  40  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  85  73  91 /  30  40  10  10
CHANUTE         68  84  72  90 /  30  40  10  10
IOLA            68  84  71  90 /  30  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    69  84  73  90 /  30  40  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$