Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 261155
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
655 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Today:
Anticipate some showers/thunderstorms flirting with the area north
of I-70 through mid-morning in 700MB moisture and warm air
advection, but better lift will likely remain north of forecast
area. Renewed convection is expected this afternoon along front,
which again is slightly slower than yesterday forecast. Currently
thinking there will be a stray storm or two by mid afternoon,
with coverage increasing with additional heating late afternoon.
The other issue is the heat headlines. Forecast heat indices are
100-107 across the area. Some pooling of dew points near front is
possible, but brisk winds in warm sector may promote a bit more
mixing. No changes to existing headlines.

Tonight-Thursday:
Storms are expected to persist overnight. Some locally heavy rain
is probable given very moist airmass leading to increasingly
efficient rainfall production and slow moving front. Precipitation
will likely linger into Thursday, especially across the south.
However there is a good chance we are too slow to end rain over
all but the far southeast corner of forecast area. Combo of
clouds and cold air advection will result in much cooler
temperatures.

Friday:
Cooler air will persist on Friday with temperatures running a few
to several degree below normals.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

There is a small chance of storms on Saturday-Monday on extreme
western edges of forecast area. These chances are contingent on
storms over western KS/southwest Nebraska clipping area as they
track southeast. Predictability/probability is low with
considerable model spread. Consensus was to go with more tempered
WPC guidance for pops. Temperatures will remain at or below
normals as massive area of high pressure dominates most of the
country east of the Rockies. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 655 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Isolated to scattered clusters of showers/thunderstorms will
impact portions of central, northern and northeast KS this
morning. Additional thunderstorm activity will redevelop this
afternoon and evening across the region, as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Covered this threat with VCTS.
Breezy south/southwest winds are expected today, switching to
northerly and breezy behind the front this evening and overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT   102  76  89  70 /  20  40  20  10
Hutchinson     102  74  87  67 /  20  50  20  10
Newton         100  73  86  67 /  20  50  30  10
ElDorado        98  74  87  68 /  10  50  30  10
Winfield-KWLD  101  77  91  71 /  10  30  20  10
Russell        102  69  87  65 /  30  40  20  10
Great Bend     102  71  87  65 /  30  50  20  10
Salina         103  73  88  67 /  30  50  20  10
McPherson      101  73  86  66 /  20  50  20  10
Coffeyville     98  77  92  71 /  10  30  30  30
Chanute         97  76  89  70 /  10  40  30  20
Iola            96  76  88  69 /  10  50  30  20
Parsons-KPPF    97  78  91  71 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...ADK



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