Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 051657
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1157 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE DIGGING OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ABOUT READY TO COME ON SHORE OVER
SOUTHERN CA. THIS LEAVES A SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN SD THROUGH CENTRAL TX.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY MIGRATES OVER THE PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS AND
PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT 80S AREA WIDE BY FRI. SHOULD ALSO
START TO SEE SOME DECENT RETURN FLOW ON FRI WITH SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.

BY SAT...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN WITH A LEAD PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN
CO/FAR WESTERN KS. SHOULD SEE A DRYLINE TIGHTEN UP OVER WESTERN KS
SAT WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO
STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE
MEAGER FOR SAT STORMS BUT SHEAR LOOKS GOOD ENOUGH OUT WEST TO GET
A HIGH BASED SUPERCELL. STILL A DECENT SIGNAL THAT SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SAT NIGHT. NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS
LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO GET IN ON THE CONVECTION
DUE TO THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINC ZONE BEING SITUATED THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH DOES LEAD TO SOME HIGHER CONFIDENCE.

BY 12Z SUN THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN WY/FAR
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH A VORT MAX STRETCHING FROM SW KS INTO
SOUTHERN NM. BY SUN AFTERNOON A DRYLINE SHOULD STRETCH FROM
WESTERN KS AND THROUGH WESTERN OK WITH THIS FEATURE PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER BY SUN WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. AROUND
50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR SHOULD BE PLENTY TO GET SUPERCELLS...WITH
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO
SEE DAYTIME STORMS.

GFS AND ECMWF ALSO NOW AGREE ON PUSHING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTO FAR EASTERN KS BY MON AFTERNOON WHICH IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. TUE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OUR NEXT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO COME OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW AND WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM THROUGH WED LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AT MIDDAY...WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TO OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS BY 12Z FRIDAY.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A LEE
TROUGH AXIS WILL STEEPEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY
FRIDAY AS DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  51  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      80  52  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          78  51  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        77  51  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  52  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         81  54  87  60 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      81  54  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          80  51  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       79  51  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     76  49  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         77  49  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            76  49  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    76  49  82  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...JMC



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